At the end of August, during the Bled Strategic Forum, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, stressed that the European Union and the candidate countries should be ready for enlargement by 2030. A few weeks later , on September 19, the Franco-German working group published a report on the reform and enlargement of the Union, in which one of the objectives is also the preparation of the EU for further enlargement in 2030 , insisting that candidates must meet all conditions. necessary conditions, with no possible shortcuts on the path to full membership. Under these conditions, the question of the candidates’ desire to achieve this objective within the proposed deadlines is once again open.
For many years, Serbia, together with Montenegro, has been a real leader in the region in terms of European integration and in 2014 began accession negotiations. However, nine years later, the process has slowed considerably and there is no end in sight.
The European Commission’s latest 2022 progress report for Serbia shows that the degree of preparedness remained unchanged compared to the previous two years. Serbia is stagnating in the European integration process and last year, for the first time, there was no negotiating chapter in which “good progress” was made, while on the other hand, in the said report, for the first time, the Commission noted a setback in a negotiating chapter – chapter 31 which deals with foreign, security and defense policy. Serbia has failed to comply with any set of sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation since the start of its aggression against Ukraine.
According to the European Stability Initiative’s assessment of readiness for membership in the European Union, published in March this year and based on the European Commission’s report, on a scale of 0 to 4 , Serbia’s readiness level at the given moment is 2.
Is 2023 a realistic goal?
Minister of European Integration Tanja Misčević said for European Western Balkans that Serbia has been engaged in the European integration process for more than two decades and that much has been achieved so far in this area. Miščević believes that Serbia may well be ready to join the EU by 2030.
“Our plan is to fully harmonize all remaining and new system laws with EU legislation in the coming period, specifically by 2025, and to demonstrate their effects in practice by 2027 so that we “We can complete the negotiation process and prepare an accession agreement”, underlines the Minister of European Integration, adding that these are the fundamental elements of the road map for Serbia.
On the other hand, the vice-president of the European Movement in Serbia, Vladimir Medak, points out that there are actually two problems. The first question is whether, in theory, Serbia could be ready to join the EU, and he says that to a large extent it could be.
“To become a member in 2030, Serbia must reach this acceptable level by mid to late 2027, when the accession treaty will be signed, which will then be ratified in 2028 and 2029,” says Međak.
However, another question is whether this is realistic, while his attitude is more negative.
According to him, it is unlikely that Serbia will do in four years what it should have done in the previous nine years under more favorable circumstances.
“What prevented Serbia from fully aligning with EU rules and standards and waiting for enlargement to return to the center of EU attention? The only answer is the lack of will to do it, and I do not think that this will appeared suddenly after nine years,” emphasized the vice-president of the European Movement in Serbia.
What are the biggest obstacles facing Serbia?
Regarding the main challenges facing Serbia on the path to membership in the European Union, Tanja Miščević and Vladimir Međak highlighted the same aspects of reforms in the field of rule of law, work on the independence of the judiciary, the fight against corruption and freedom of the media.
Minister Miščević affirms that the foundations were laid in the past period and highlights the constitutional reform and the adoption of new judicial laws in 2022, as well as the current innovation of the strategic document for the fight against corruption and corruption. media laws.
Vladimir Međak, however, believes that over the past ten years, Serbia has moved away from the EU functioning model and experienced a decline in all global rankings in the areas of democracy, rule of law , the fight against corruption and organized crime.
“Solving these problems today is much more demanding than 10 years ago, when these problems did not reach today’s proportions,” adds Međak.
According to him, at a time when the EU approaches enlargement as a geopolitical issue, the Union will focus on countries that are potentially ready to become members.
“Serbia will not be the first, or even the second or third choice of an exemplary candidate who deserves to be a member of the EU and whose membership will not be a problem for the EU itself” , underlines Međak, emphasizing that the list of “obstacles” for Serbia is long, but that they essentially come from the lack of real political will of Serbian leaders.
The current geopolitical circumstances highlight another issue: Serbia’s alignment with the foreign policy of the European Union, especially in the context of relations with Russia after the aggression against Ukraine.
While Vladimir Međak emphasizes that due to its attitude towards Russia, Serbia will not be on the list of countries that many can trust, and Minister Miščević confirms that this issue plays a very important role in political assessment, but she nevertheless adds that there are other important questions in the area of foreign and security policy.
“We try to explain that shared values in foreign policy go much deeper than percentage compliance – that it is an insistence on preserving the principles of international law and not avoiding sanctions, energy diversification, but also humanitarian and technical assistance to countries. Ukraine,” said Minister Miščević.
Furthermore, the internal situation of the European Union and the need for reforms insisted on by some member states before the possible enlargement in 2030 should also be taken into account.
Tanja Miščević recalls that, especially today, the accession process is a political process and that “no matter how quickly and successfully the Member States manage to agree on their internal reforms, the year target may or may not be a reality.”
Vladimir Međak believes on the other hand that, for these reasons, it is likely that the enlargement itself will take place gradually in terms of entry into certain EU policies, firstly the single market, until possible accession overall.
“Serbia, in a very small number of segments, is currently on the verge of being ready to participate in such policies,” concludes Međak.