El Niño could significantly affect Bangladesh. The country may experience below-average or erratic rainfall, and warmer conditions may lead to droughts.
Insufficient rainfall during the monsoon in Bangladesh, caused by El Niño, has a profound impact on the production of rainfed staple crops. Photo: Sikder Ahmed
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Insufficient rainfall during the monsoon in Bangladesh, caused by El Niño, has a profound impact on the production of rainfed staple crops. Photo: Sikder Ahmed
El Niño is a global climatic phenomenon characterized by the warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which exerts an influence on the ionosphere and the general climate of its environment. El Niño can adversely affect the monsoon season, leading to below-normal rainfall and prolonged droughts.
The increased risk of El Niño-induced dry weather conditions in 2023/24 could harm cereal production. In light of this situation, advance planning to prepare for such events could benefit Bangladesh.
ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This is a significant climatic event that involves interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific region. ENSO refers to the irregular and recurring fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns, exerting a substantial influence on global weather and climate patterns.
ENSO has two main phases – El Niño and La Niña.
During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Oceans become unusually warm, leading to significant climate impacts globally. This causes hot weather in winter, leading to dry and inadequate summer monsoons. These effects include changes in precipitation patterns, droughts, floods and changes in storm tracks.
On the other hand, during La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the same region become colder than average, which can also lead to distinct weather patterns in different regions. El Niña appears at irregular intervals of approximately two to seven years. However, El Niño tends to occur more frequently than La Niña.
El Niño, with its global impact, could also have significant consequences on Bangladesh. Let us consider the predictions of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regarding the occurrence of an El Niño event to be correct. In this case, Bangladesh may experience below-average or erratic rainfall, and warmer conditions may lead to droughts.
According to WMO forecasts, the active phase of El Niño began in July and its effects are already observed in the country. This is evident through the extreme temperatures during the pre-monsoon period and the extraordinary occurrence of high temperatures even during the monsoon season.
Additionally, Bangladesh experiences a decrease in rainfall during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods. The intensification of extreme weather conditions is accompanied by a gradual increase in apparent temperature, making conditions even more difficult for the population.
Similar trends were observed in 2016 during the active phase of El Niño. This highlighted the importance of understanding and preparing for the impacts of this climate phenomenon on Bangladesh and its weather patterns.
Bangladesh’s agrarian economy relies heavily on the monsoon for favorable returns. However, this year, El Niño is expected to disrupt the country’s weather patterns, potentially affecting agriculture.
Bangladesh’s weather conditions from April to July regarding temperature and precipitation were almost similar to the El Niño forecast. Insufficient rainfall during the monsoon in Bangladesh has a profound impact on the production of rainfed staple crops.
Recent data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) reveals that the country has experienced significantly lower rainfall and higher temperatures than the average of the last 30 years. Concretely, precipitation was reduced by 65% in April, 42% in May, 18% in June and nearly 43% in July, a critical period for the rainy season. During the first week of August, 252 mm of precipitation was recorded, almost 60% of the average precipitation.
Average temperatures experienced above normal temperature in the country from April to July. Maximum temperatures experienced a constant increase in April, May, June and July, with increases of 2.2°C, 1.8°C, 1.8°C and 2.6°C respectively.
Conversely, minimum temperatures showed a fluctuating trend – a slight decrease of 0.1°C and 0.5°C in April and May, followed by an increase of 0.6°C and 1.2° C in June and July. These unusual weather situations from April to July this year have already challenged agricultural activities in Bangladesh.
This year’s El Niño could have a significant impact on rainfall, potentially affecting crops such as cereals, legumes and others. Projected changes in precipitation patterns could lead to severe heat waves and drought, negatively affecting crop growth and productivity.
Insufficient rainfall can lead to a shortage of irrigation water, hindering crop germination, growth and development. Additionally, rising temperatures can affect crop development, leading to reduced yields.
Heat stress could become a concern, particularly for temperature-sensitive crops, posing a risk to overall productivity. El Niño can also impact the prevalence and distribution of pests and diseases.
Additionally, increased humidity during El Niño can create an environment conducive to the growth of fungal diseases. According to an FAO analysis, if an El Niño event materializes, it could lead to dry weather conditions affecting croplands, which could negatively impact crop yields in the 2023/2024 season.
By ratifying localized emergency plans, Bangladesh can mitigate the potential impacts of El Niño. By closely monitoring climate patterns and predicting potentially adverse weather events such as droughts, floods or extreme temperatures, the authority can provide timely information to farmers.
However, the government should increase the allocation of resources to support agricultural research and development initiatives to develop climate-resilient crop varieties. The government should particularly focus on drought and heat stress tolerance, innovative agricultural practices and efficient water management techniques.
It is essential to strengthen early warning systems and raise awareness among communities to link alerts with proactive actions to prepare for and manage the impacts of El Niño. It is essential to ensure that extension agents are properly trained and equipped to guide climate-smart agricultural techniques, crop management strategies and pest and disease control measures. This will help farmers adopt resilient practices and make informed decisions.
The government can provide market support and facilitate market linkages for farmers. This includes establishing fair pricing mechanisms, improving market infrastructure and promoting value-added and agro-processing activities.
It is essential to have a clear understanding and awareness of the adverse effects and management process of climate variability and El Niño in agricultural production stages. Finally, the development and implementation of supporting policies is crucial to address the impact on the entire agricultural sector.
Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman. Sketch: SCT
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Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman. Sketch: SCT
