Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg has thrown the EU a curveball as the bloc holds the crucial summit that will decide whether to formally approve the start of accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.
It would be a “geostrategic catastrophe”, Schallenberg said, if the EU sidelines the Western Balkans in favor of Ukraine when it decides to open negotiations at this week’s European Council meeting.
In early November, the European Commission recommended starting accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, but decided to suspend the start of negotiations with Bosnia until “the necessary degree of compliance with the accession criteria ‘adhesion is achieved’.
But the Balkans and Ukraine are just as important, according to Schallenberg. The Austrian Minister of Foreign Affairs believes that the EU should work to stabilize the two regions (Eastern and South-Eastern Europe) by anchoring Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina in its orbit.
The warning from Austria’s top diplomat comes amid growing tensions in the Balkans, with the potential for a resumption of conflict.
The EU Belgrade-Pristina dialogue seems shaky and Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russian leader of Republika Srpska, is not afraid to frequently make secessionist threats in Bosnia. This increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape is undermining investor confidence at a critical time for the region as it seeks to modernize its post-Yugoslav economy in preparation for EU membership.
Given Austria’s geographical and historical experience, it is not surprising that Schallenberg has reservations about the EU’s current approach to enlargement.
Geographic pivot
Very few EU member states know and understand better than Austria what instability in the Balkans means for the security of the entire European continent.
The defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878 allowed Russia to redraw the region’s borders to suit its interests. But Austria, one of the great European powers of the time, played a vital role in maintaining the balance of power. At the Congress of Berlin in 1878, Austrian diplomacy sealed its presence in Bosnia, which limited Russia’s territorial gains to Bessarabia (two-thirds of present-day Moldova).
Russian imperialism in the 19th century is reminiscent of Vladimir Putin’s ability to play a disruptive role in the Balkans today. Western failure to resolve disputes arising from the collapse of Yugoslavia in 1992 allowed Putin to exploit Russian sympathies in the region and derail his European integration process.
Frustrated with the EU, Serbia has moved ever closer to Russia and refused to align with EU sanctions in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
These obvious historical parallels illustrate the importance of listening to the Austrian perspective. Russia’s threat to Europe is not only limited to the battlefield in Ukraine, but also extends to the Balkans, a region surrounded by EU member states.
Failure to pursue a credible policy in southeastern Europe, let alone Ukraine, would raise serious questions about the EU’s ability to defend its values on the world stage.
Austria is often ridiculed as the soft underbelly of Russian influence in Europe. Despite the invasion of Ukraine, there is no sign of progress towards NATO membership, with military neutrality remaining enshrined in the Austrian constitution.
The Vienna Chancellery, while supporting EU sanctions against Russia, maintains relations with the Kremlin. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer became the first European leader to meet Putin in Moscow since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But it would be a mistake to consider Austria as a country lacking any solution to the security challenge posed by Russia. Indeed, the escalation of the situation in the Balkans has confirmed Austria’s central role in the future success of EU policy towards the region.
No other EU member state has done more than Austria to advocate for offering the six Balkan countries prospects of full EU membership. Participation in regional cooperation initiatives, such as the Berlin Process, is also a priority of Austrian foreign policy.
Austria’s leadership in the region’s European integration stands in stark contrast to the limited attention the EU has given to this issue. Russia’s assault on Ukraine did not translate into recognition of the strategic importance of the Balkans at the European level.
After a two-day summit aimed at resolving tensions between Bulgaria and North Macedonia, EU officials did not attend a planned news conference with six leaders from the region. This lead to widespread resentment towards the EU across the region, with growing skepticism towards 2030, the European Council’s target year for accession.
The Austrian Foreign Minister called on the EU to abandon its binary thinking on enlargement and gradually advance the European integration process in Ukraine, Moldova and the Balkans.
Schallenberg recently issued a direct challenge to its EU partners, asking whether we (as the EU) are capable of exporting stability, or whether we risk importing instability?
One of the main lessons of Central Europe’s European integration experience in the early 2000s is the important role the EU played in building political and economic stability.
The simultaneous accession of Ukraine and Bosnia to the EU would provide new opportunities for investment and economic growth. As the EU faces the Russian threat today, it would do well to remember its own history and follow Austria’s example.
