Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s impassioned appeal for his beleaguered country to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible has met with cautious support across Europe. But the Western Balkans – home to six accession candidates – has remained largely silent.
On February 28, Ukraine officially applied for EU membership, a move supported by Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The six Western Balkans, comprising Albania, Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, are also pursuing the EU dream. Serbia and MontenegroLead the way, as the only ones to have negotiations already underway, while Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are mere potential candidates.
Albania and North Macedonia have been in the waiting room for years, stuck by issues of corruption, asylum and, most recently, in the case of the latter, a dispute with Sofia over history , culture and identity.
Enlargement remains a controversial subject, with the European Commission constantly repeating that it is on the table. The reality, however, is that many believe the process has stalled because there has been virtually no concrete progress in recent years.
As for what Balkan governments think about potential free riders, the public doesn’t know.
“Enlargement is dead”
“Let’s not pretend, enlargement is dead, it’s not going anywhere,” a diplomat from the region told EURACTIV, also explaining that while it is difficult not to support Ukraine in these dramatic times, it is It is equally difficult to be in favor of a rapid agreement. follow-up procedure for kyiv, given that Western Balkan countries have been lining up for years.
EURACTIV contacted the foreign and European ministries of each country, but only Montenegro responded.
“Montenegro, as an EU candidate country, fully supports the EU enlargement process. We emphasize that the decision to join the EU depends exclusively on the decision taken by the Member States,” reads the short response.
EURACTIV spoke to several analysts in the region to get their views.
Gjergji Vurmo, program director at the Albanian Institute for Democracy and Mediation, acknowledged that there was some public silence on the issue, but argued that Russian aggression had actually created momentum for hopes of the Balkans joining the EU.
“EU stakeholders, especially key member states, are more open than ever and are looking for ways to capitalize on this momentum and anchor the Western Balkan countries more firmly in the EU. »
He said the EU accession process has suffered from credibility problems in recent years and that it will take courage from EU leaders to strengthen the EU and the Western Balkans.
“The war in Ukraine poses immense threats and has revealed many things that have been happening in the Western Balkans region that civil society and independent media have been denouncing for years… It takes courage to recognize the mistakes of the past and courage not to hesitate. far from responsibilities,” he adds.
Ukraine’s candidacy is beneficial
Kristijan Fidanovski, a researcher at the University of Oxford who is interested in the politics of Eastern Europe, the Balkans and Russia, said Ukraine’s wishes should not pose a threat to North Macedonia.
“Given Ukraine’s distant membership prospects, it is difficult to see how this could threaten North Macedonia’s membership. In fact, given the EU’s history of simultaneous enlargement to several countries, for both logistical and political reasons, Ukraine’s candidacy can only be beneficial, even if it is more likely to “have no impact in either direction,” he told EURACTIV.
He also noted that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia, Bujar Osmani, welcomed the possibility of Ukraine’s accession to the EU – the first, and so far, the only one in the region to do so publicly.
On Monday March 21 in Brussels, Osmani said that Ukraine and Moldova both have a European future but the process cannot be accelerated.
“It is very important to promise a country that it has a European future. This promise was made to us in 2003 in Thessaloniki and it is this commitment that has led us to the further development of our country and the fulfillment of the EU criteria,” he said.
“This EU commitment to Ukraine will have the same effect,” Osmani added.
However, Fidanovski criticized the unanimous approval of all EU countries required to admit new members as a major obstacle.
“As long as unanimous consent of member states is required, EU enlargement may remain incomplete. Democracy depends on the will of the majority, but unanimity means that the majority can be held hostage by a minority of one. Unanimity is the enemy of democracy,” he explains.
Deafening silence in Serbia
Meanwhile, in Serbia, the region’s largest country, which began accession negotiations in January 2014, the silence is even more deafening, with the exception of a pro-Russian rally held in the capital Belgrade .
Belgrade is a close ally of Moscow and the Serbian government has failed to align with EU foreign policy since Russia invaded Ukraine, including not applying sanctions and refusing to condemn publicly Vladimir Putin and the war.
Additionally, Serbia is holding presidential and parliamentary elections in April and any public criticism of Moscow could almost certainly harm electoral prospects.
President Aleksandar Vučić said “Serbia will not rush into hostilities because someone asks it to,” despite signals from Brussels that remaining on the fence could harm Belgrade’s accession process.
Florian Bieber, historian and director of the Center for Southeast European Studies at the University of Graz, noted that there has been little discussion of the issue in Serbia because “membership in the EU is currently not a priority on the agenda.” This situation is reinforced by an atmosphere “much more pro-Russian than favorable to Ukraine”.
As for the rest of the region, “I would expect the Western Balkans to be concerned that Ukraine’s acceleration undermines enlargement in the Western Balkans, where achieving candidate status has taken years and difficult reforms, including cooperation with the UN war crimes tribunal. » .
Back in Albania, Vurmo noted that there is a high level of sensitivity around the situation in Ukraine.
“What is clear is that there can be no rapid or normal progress in Ukraine’s membership bid without prior European integration in the Western Balkans. The same goes for the reverse: if the EU fails to achieve its goal of accession of the Western Balkan countries, it will be very difficult to convince anyone that the EU takes the prospect of Western Balkan membership seriously. Ukraine.”
(Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic)
