Serbia is no longer a useful ally in resolving political problems in the Balkans; rather, it is a root cause of them. Therefore, our approach must evolve towards one of containment, holding President Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian government accountable for causing instability.
Second, NATO must ensure that its presence in the region is significant enough to deter violence. This means increasing the number of soldiers. The EUFOR stabilization force in Bosnia and Herzegovina numbers only around 700 members, a meager contingent unlikely to contain significant instability. Kosovo should also be admitted to NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, alongside Bosnia, and welcomed into NATO as soon as possible.
Third, the EU should realize the threat to its borders. Polite words will get us nowhere. A firm response, backed by the threat of sanctions, is the only message that will get through. Threats of violence, ethnic nationalism and genocide denial should be met with clear and swift condemnation rather than the usual awkward silence from the EU. Nor should we continue to formulate statements in the language of “both sides”.
Some European politicians may fear that such a strong response will only serve to alienate the Western Balkans, but this fear is unfounded. Russia will not replace the EU. The region’s youth are not leaving for Moscow but for the EU. When European leaders declared in 2003 that “the future of the Balkans lies within the European Union,” they were right. The question is how many more conflicts the region will have to go through before it gets there.
If European leaders like Orbán in Hungary or Janez Janša in Slovenia block this shift towards principled politics, then progressive governments should coordinate, alongside the US and UK, and move forward short term. In the long term, European countries will need to develop a strategy and policy that all 27 members can agree on – something the United States should work to encourage. If accession of Western Balkan countries to the EU is not feasible, interim measures, such as membership of the single market and customs union and increased funding, should be considered.
There is no doubt that conflict in the region is no longer unthinkable: if we do not act, it is only a matter of time. Russia knows this and is deliberately testing NATO’s resolve and capabilities. If NATO and the EU are incapable of defending stability in the Balkans – not so much their backyard as their backyard at home – then they are unlikely to do so elsewhere. And in the absence of credible Euro-Atlantic engagement, it is not just the Balkans that will suffer.
