A geopolitical EU and the Western Balkans: twenty years after the “Thessaloniki Agenda”

The European Council met in Thessaloniki on 19 and 20 June 2003 and underlined its “determination to fully and effectively support the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries, which will become an integral part of the EU, as soon as they respond to the established criteria”. Furthermore, the European Council welcomed the draft constitutional treaty presented by the president of the Convention, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, and the vice-president, Giuliano Amato. Defined as a historic step in European integration, the project included the enlargement process and the “capacity of the Union to act as a coherent and unified force in the international system”. At the time, the President of the European Commission was Romano Prodi.

This is why the EU-Western Balkans summit in June 2003 placed emphasis on strengthening the privileged relations between the EU and the Western Balkans. Furthermore, the Greek Presidency highlighted the implementation of the EU program for the prevention of violent conflicts focusing mainly on the Western Balkans. In July 2003, Italy, with Berlusconi’s government, took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Thus, this year marks the twentieth anniversary of the European Union promising and defining a European future for the Western Balkan countries. Celebrating Europe Day on May 9 in Strasbourg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed the European Parliament and called for keeping promises to the Western Balkans and accelerating European integration. In the 21st century of the multipolar world, after the “Zeitenwende” of the Russian war in Ukraine, Scholz stressed the need for a geopolitical EU, an enlarged and reformed EU. Finally, the German Chancellor recalled the “Thessaloniki Agenda” of 2003, emphasizing an honest enlargement policy implement its promises, particularly towards the countries of the Western Balkans. A few weeks later, European Commission President Von der Leyen presented a four-pillar plan: bringing the Western Balkans closer to the EU single market, accelerating fundamental reforms, deepening regional economic integration and increasing pre-accession funds.

Furthermore, on August 21, the leaders of the candidate countries for EU membership met in Athens at the invitation of the Greek Prime Minister. Mitsotakis, marking 20 years of the EU-Western Balkans summit in Thessaloniki. Namely, at the Athens summit were present the Prime Ministers of Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria, the Presidents of the European Commission, Von der Leyen, and the European Council Charles Michel, who reiterated that enlargement remained a top priority for the EU. Likewise, the Athens meeting brought together the Presidents of Ukraine and Moldova, the leaders of the new candidate countries.

Mitsotakis did not invite the Albanian Prime Minister Rama due to bilateral disputes regarding the Greek minority community in Albania and arrested a major Greek candidate in one of the Albanian municipalities, accused of vote buying and corruption. Furthermore, in an interview before the summit, Rama said that Greece had cheated in its EU accession process. Instead, Albanian President Begaj was invited but unable to participate “due to a previously set agenda.” Furthermore, part of the growing tensions between Greece and Albania is explained by a prolonged disagreement over maritime borders which must be decided by an international court.

Thus, the participants adopted a joint declaration in eight points. The first four points support Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and condemn the Russian invasion. The second part of the Athens Declaration recalls the Thessaloniki Summit and “the need for a reinvigorated and refocused enlargement process” for the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova in light of the new geopolitical context.

The focus was on the bilateral meeting between the presidents of Serbia and Ukraine, Vučić And Zelensky. Indeed, Serbia, which has not imposed sanctions on Russia, declares its support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Conversely, Ukraine does not recognize Kosovo as an independent country.

However, since 2003, the political reality in the Western Balkans has changed considerably. Since 2006, Montenegro has been an independent country; in 2008, the self-proclaimed independence of Kosovo, still not recognized by Serbia; The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, after a state agreement with Greece in 2018, changed the country’s name to North Macedonia. Croatia was the only one to join the EU in 2013. In the meantime, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia have become members of NATO.

Likewise, the EU’s geopolitical projects in the Western Balkans are burdened by various unresolved issues. For example, there are strong tensions between Belgrade and Priština (unsuccessful dialogue and new conflicts on the verge of war in Serbian municipalities); Bulgaria conditions Skopje with linguistic and historical questions; Greece refuses to ratify three technical agreements with North Macedonia under the Prespa agreement; Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina interpret the 1995 Dayton Agreement differently. Perhaps, due to the EU’s policy of conditioning to implement reforms and the bilateral blockage on the path to the EU, Russia and China appear to have more economic and political influence in the region.

The EU therefore realizes that the war between Russia and Ukraine creates new impetus for the enlargement process. It is true that the war in Europe added a new dimension to the EU accession negotiations; it moves the small countries of south-eastern Europe from the periphery of Europe to the heart of political debates. Thus, the EU’s enlargement policy to the Western Balkans seems relevant again after years of weariness. Like another realpolitik It is for this reason that the EU’s highest formal and informal visits and meetings attempt to maintain EU influence in the region and respond to the Western Balkans before Russia and China. The question of how successful this venture might be is still open. Thessaloniki agenda has constantly evolved since its creation until today and develops new models of intergovernmental action. Therefore, the topic, as a geopolitical issue, presents the history, daily politics and future of the EU in a competitive multipolar world marked by fierce divisions. As members of a supranational body (the European Council), EU national governments and intergovernmental decision-makers provide the political framework for the enlargement agenda, primarily taking into account the economic and geopolitical interests of member states in a particular context, preventing security threats and balancing Russian and Chinese power.

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