Two consecutive summits in the Spanish city of Granada. First, on Thursday, 47 European states — all except Russia And Belarus — will meet as the European Political Community (CPE), a forum inaugurated last year in Prague as an alliance against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Then, on Friday, an informal meeting will take place on the 27th EU the Member States, themselves faced with a mountain of problems, first and foremost the management of migration.
Political “speed dating”
No formal decisions will be taken at the two summits this week. The European Political Community in particular, created by the French president Emmanuel Macronis a relaxed gathering without a clear structure.
That’s a good thing, according to Steven Blockmans of the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), a Brussels-based think tank. The analyst estimates that the third gathering of European leaders, after Prague in 2022 and Chisinau in June 2023will be a sort of political “speed dating conference”.
Without an agenda or pressure to haggle over joint statements, politicians will have plenty of opportunities to come together in relaxed working groups.
This is when leaders who rarely see each other have the opportunity to speak, Vessela Tcherneva of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told DW in Sofia.
“The same goes for the 20 third countries that do not meet every month like their European Union counterparts,” Tcherneva stressed. These politicians needed a forum where they could talk to each other at the highest political levels, she added.
No meeting between Azerbaijan and Armenia planned
For Azerbaijan And Armeniatwo rivals in conflict, the informal summit theoretically offers the opportunity to seek a solution to the the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. Some 120,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the territory in recent weeks, after Azerbaijan regained control with a military occupation.
Blockmans called on others at this week’s meeting to take a tough line on Azerbaijan. Territorial conflicts The problem should not be resolved by force in Europe, Blockmans said, with that principle applying just as much to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as it does to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“If that leaves Azerbaijan isolated, so be it. But at least the rest of Europe would demonstrate that it is united in its understanding of its own fundamental and fundamental principles,” Blockmans added.
In the end, Aliyev decided not to meet with Armenian representatives, the Azeri News Agency (APA) reported on Wednesday.
More than just a family photo?
The situation in Ukraine is expected to once again dominate the EPC meeting in Grenada. Whether or not the Ukrainian president is Volodymyr Zelensky personally goes to Granda is kept secret.
At last year’s Prague summit, leaders sent a clear signal to Russia: Europe remains loyal to Ukraine. In the Moldovan capital Chisinau, the message was that Europe supports the entire region, including at-risk states such as Moldova.
And in Granada? “It might be a little more difficult a third time, in Grenada, where a photoshoot alone might no longer be enough to send such a powerful message,” Brockmans said. “It is now clearer that more tangible results will have to emerge from this meeting.”
Can Ukraine hope for progress towards EU membership?
During their trip to kyiv on Monday, EU Foreign Ministers already gives a taste of what we can expect from Granada. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that the heart of Europe beats strongest in Ukraine. The “European community of freedom” must stretch from Lisbon to Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, Baerbock said.
In Ukraine, this clearly meant that the candidate country could soon begin official accession negotiations.
“I think it is very likely that Ukraine will get a date for the start of accession negotiations in December,” Cherneva said. “This would take place alongside discussions on military and financial support.”
These same topics will also be addressed during discussions at the two summits, she said, especially since the EU member state Slovakia looks set to have a government led by a prime minister sympathetic to Russia after elections last week. US aid to Ukraine could also be blocked by a budget dispute in Congress.
Will the EU move forward with its migration file?
During the informal summit of the 27 EU members held on Friday, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, initially wanted to address strategic issues: European autonomy, infrastructure and energy.
But due to the increasing number of migrants arriving in the EU, Italy and others want to discuss short-term solutions. Michel’s advisers want to limit discussions to the “external dimension” of migration, that is to say cooperation with third countries such as Türkiye Or Tunisiasupposed to prevent migrants from traveling to Europe.
However, Tunisian President Kais Saied’s announcement that he does not wish to implement a freshly concluded agreement with the EU derailed preparations. The EU had offered economic aid in exchange for holding back migrants. Saïed rejected the 1.2 billion dollars (1.14 billion euros) promised over the long term, calling them “misery”.
Far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni played a key role in negotiations with Tunisia, raising questions about her reaction. THE The new EU migration pactshould shorten asylum procedures, intensify deportations and introduce a system for distributing asylum seekers between EU states. However, the process remains in limbo, with Germany and Italy remaining at odds on key points.
Is the EU ready to welcome new members?
Another hot topic that European Council Charles Michel wants to put on the table in Grenada is that of the reforms needed within the EU to prepare for the crisis.expected integration of six Western Balkan states, Ukraine and Moldova.
The EU needs a clear understanding of the consequences of this step, both for new members but also for the bloc itself, Michel wrote in his traditional invitation letter to leaders before the meeting.
“It is essential that we reflect on the future dynamics of our Union, our policies and our decision-making process, among others, to ensure the continued success of the EU. In particular, we will address crucial questions, such as: what do we do together? It’s us who decide? How can we adapt our means to our ambitions?
Discussions about the impact of enlargement on the EU budget could become interesting. If Ukraine joins (it is currently the poorest state in Europe) the current net recipients of EU funds in Eastern and Central Europe, as Hungary Or Polandcould suddenly become net contributors like Germany.
This article was adapted from German.