There are immediate challenges. An EU country, Slovakia, I just supported the party of a populist who supports Russia. Ukraine and its Western neighbors are arguing grain trade. And Ukraine’s slow progress on the battlefield has sparked fears of a frozen conflict and growing war weariness in Europe.
In a sign that Kiev’s needs may be falling off the EU agenda, this week’s summit was partly overshadowed by conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo and disagreements on how to manage migration.
On the eve of Thursday’s negotiations, President Biden convened a call with key allies to reassure them The United States still supports Ukraine, although Congress passed a government funding bill last week that did not provide funding for the troubled country.
In Granada, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged “the events in America, the political storm that is gaining momentum.” Still, he said, “I have faith in America. These are strong people, a strong society, strong institutions, strong democratic energy. He encouraged EU leaders to move forward and harness their “potential as an independent power” while working “to defend our values and our common area of freedom with the United States.”
In recent weeks, European officials and diplomats have ignored questions about U.S. support for Ukraine, insisting that Republican leaders would, in time, accept their theory that a Ukrainian victory is at the heart of the American interests, in part because of the message they send to Taiwan. territorial integrity.
This emphasis continued in Thursday’s public messages. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was “very confident” in US support for Ukraine. “What the United States is working on is timing,” she said as she entered the room. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said: “I think political support is high, despite the developments we are seeing in different countries. »
But with American politics in shambles following the ouster of Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) As House speaker, it has become harder for Europe to ignore the possibility of a shift in the U.S. position and what that could mean for Ukraine’s prospects on the battlefield and beyond.
Funding delays “would endanger the Ukrainian victory that should ensure lasting peace on the European continent, which is in the interests of the United States,” said Victoria Voytsitska, advocacy director at the International Center for Ukrainian Victory and researcher. former member of the Ukrainian parliament.
EU foreign ministers visited Kiev on Monday to symbolically show their support, with foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announcing a proposed additional funding of more than $5 billion for Ukraine. But that money still needs approval, and it may not be easy to gain unanimity for new aid programs. Populist Robert Fico, whose party received the most votes in recent Slovak elections, campaigned to end military support for Ukraine. Hungary has already blocked military aid.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, as always, seemed to relish Western divisions. Speaking in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on Thursday, he noted that Washington was facing “some problems with its budget.” The Biden administration could simply “print money” to solve the problem, Putin ventured. But he also warned that “as soon as they stop” their military aid to Ukraine, “they collapse and everything collapses.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov predicted Thursday that the United States would remain involved in the conflict, but that divisions would deepen. “Our forecasts indicate that fatigue with this conflict, fatigue with the absolutely absurd sponsorship of the Kiev regime will grow in various countries, including the United States,” he said.
If the question of aid to Ukraine gave rise to tense discussions, that of membership in the EU is even more delicate. At Friday’s meetings, EU leaders will examine ways to bring more countries closer together, including a possible expansion of the bloc from 27 to more than 30 members, potentially attracting Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, as well as several Western Balkan countries.
Joining the EU takes years. A potential member’s political and legal system is studied, evaluated and then slowly brought into compliance with rather high standards in Brussels. A number of countries, including Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia, have been in accession talks for years. Turkey, which applied for membership in 1987, remains technically a candidate, although its prospects appear slim at best. Over the past year, Ukraine has worked closely with EU officials to undertake reforms that would begin to bring it in line with what is needed. The EU will decide whether to open accession negotiations with kyiv in December.
The challenge in Brussels will be just as complex. The prospect of bringing in Ukraine and other additional members has renewed questions about how the bloc would work with 27 members, as well as how it would work with Ukraine and other members. “It is vital that we reflect on the future dynamics of our Union, our policies and our decision-making process, among others, to ensure the continued success of the EU,” wrote Charles Michel, president of the European Council, in a letter to leaders before the summit. informal summit on Friday.
If Ukraine joins, it will become the fifth most populous EU country and by far the poorest per capita, which would deprive other members of subsidies. A recent disagreement between Ukraine and its EU neighbors, including Poland, foreshadows the challenge that a major grain exporter’s entry into the single market would one day pose.
Some also wonder how the EU can welcome new members when it is struggling, very publicly, with current members like Hungary and Poland. In a much larger bloc, with more members and an even broader set of interests, what mechanisms will be available to deal with outliers? “For me, it’s not just about what to do with people who want to come in,” said Camino Mortera Martinez, who heads the Brussels office of the Center for European Reform. “It’s also about knowing what to do with people who are there and aren’t necessarily following the rules.”
Then there is the question of timing. Michel, the president of the European Council, has said he wants Europe to be ready to welcome new members by 2030. Some doubt this will be possible. “The target date of 2030 is not realistic,” said Teona Lavrelashvili, a policy analyst at the European Policy Center, a think tank focused on European integration.
“It is a political commitment,” Lavrelashvili said, adding: “I think it is important to have a political commitment, but we must be careful not to make excessive promises” and “we must use this time to see what is feasible and what is not. feasible.”
Dixon reported from Riga, Latvia. David Stern in kyiv contributed to this report.