A serious toughening of the EU’s diplomatic response against Azerbaijan following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be expected, in order to prevent aggression against the sovereign Armenian territory, said Bulgarian MEP Radan Kanev (EPP , Democratic Bulgaria) during a press conference. exclusive interview for EURACTIV Bulgaria.
Bulgarian energy experts and diplomats confirmed this assessment, but added that sanctions against the Baku regime would only be possible with the support of the United States, which can replace Azerbaijani gas supplies. They suspect Azerbaijan and Turkey of serving as a front for Russian interests within the EU.
“The EU’s position depends to a large extent on France’s leadership role. President Macron’s apparent ambition is to play a decisive role in foreign policy. Bulgaria is a country with very strong relations with the Armenian people, like France, and Sofia can be expected to show solidarity with this French position,” Kanev predicted.
The European Parliament adopted a resolution on October 5 to review relations between the EU and Azerbaijan and impose sanctions regarding the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. MEPs also propose reducing dependence on gas and oil imports from Azerbaijan.
According to Kanev, Baku’s aggressive policy poses a very big threat to the pro-European government of Armenia, which Russia deliberately abandoned due to its pro-European orientation.
“One possible explanation is that Russia is now powerless, but there is also an element of punitive behavior towards the Armenian government due to its pro-European policies.
The EU and European countries have a moral duty to intervene in the event of aggression against Armenian sovereign territory,” Kanev said. He added that EU gas supplies are the main resource Azerbaijan depends on in the conflict.
“The EU has not imposed uniform sanctions on Russian gas supplies. I did not expect this, which also explains the self-confidence in this policy of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev,” said the Bulgarian MEP.
Azerbaijan risks sanctions
Asked whether Azerbaijan can afford to stop gas supplies to the EU, Bulgarian energy expert and former ambassador to Moscow Ilian Vassilev told Euractiv that “neither Azerbaijan will stop its deliveries, nor will the EU stop its gas purchases” in the near future.
“The very idea of the EU playing ‘tough’ against Azerbaijan is unlikely to find many supporters, especially among the governments of EU countries currently receiving Azeri gas. The EU is overwhelmed by the war in Ukraine,” Vassilev commented.
However, according to him, in the long term, consequences for the Baku regime can be expected, as the EU is increasingly sensitive to regimes that lead to aggressive policies and wars.
“If the EU and the United States agree on a sanctions policy towards Azerbaijan, American liquefied natural gas could replace Azeri gas.
However, the EU has managed to overcome its dependence on more than 150 billion cubic meters of Russian gas and it will overcome its dependence on Azerbaijani gas by 15 billion cubic meters. “Everything depends on Baku’s reactions, their understanding of the risks of alienating Europe,” Vassilev said.
According to him, the risks of the conflict for Bulgaria are not minimal, but they are not directly linked only to the expulsion of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.
“After this conflict, Azerbaijan sharply increased its dependence on Turkey and reduced valuable and, in many ways, irrecoverable political capital for Europe. Azeri leaders have benefited from attention and special treatment from Brussels, independent of Turkey. Today, Russian oil and gas are being “laundered” through Turkey, and direct contracts for the supply of Azerbaijani oil and gas to Europe may be under threat,” the expert warned.
Red lights in Brussels
Vassilev recalled the decision of Azeri energy company SOCAR to receive a huge loan from Russia’s Lukoil to process large quantities of Russian crude oil at its refinery in Turkey, which caused many “red lights” to flash in Brussels. According to him, in Bulgaria, the actions of Azeri politicians and businesses as well as the strengthening of ties with Russia and Turkey, at the expense of the EU, are also closely monitored.
“These measures, at least at this stage, are not encouraging,” Vasilev said. Bulgaria and Greece are particularly dependent on Azeri gas supplies.
“Baku simply ceded to Ankara the right to negotiate with the EU on energy, which means that there is a high probability that more Azeri gas will enter the Turkish gas mix which will be exported to the EU, to the detriment of direct contracts. The question is how the EU will view Turkey’s role in this process and whether it will impose sanctions,” Vassilev commented.
He added that the Russian gas mix includes Russian, Azerbaijani and Iranian gas. “I expect the war between Hamas and Israel to also have an impact, especially in the context of Russia’s increased interests in diverting attention from Ukraine.”
“Baku just needs to decide where it stands,” Vassilev said.
“Azerbaijan has a lot more to lose when it comes to sanctions. Given the importance for the country’s economy of guaranteeing supplies to Europe, Baku will comply with this rather than imposing countermeasures,” said Martin Vladimirov, director of the “Energy and Climate” program » at the influential Bulgarian think tank Center for the Study of Democracy. commented.
He predicts that if Azerbaijan takes concrete steps against the EU, Bulgaria will suffer, as it currently receives a third of its natural gas from there.
This gas is much cheaper than the price on international markets.
But this also applies to many other Balkan countries, and a gas shortage in one of these countries will also lead to a shortage in the others.
The EU remains “deafeningly silent”
He stressed that the silence of the European Union on Azerbaijan’s behavior in Nagorno-Karabakh is “deafening”.
“This silence creates the feeling of a double standard: some cases are considered a violation of international law, while others are simply ignored. This gives hope to other countries that have territorial disputes with their neighbors to resolve them unilaterally through military force. It must be emphasized that Armenia occupied these territories after a military intervention in the early 1990s. It took the region by force and expelled the Azeris. But this does not mean that we must accept that the current situation is a fair revenge,” Vladimirov explained.
He also explains Brussels’ “silence” by the fact that Azerbaijan is a key supplier of oil and gas. According to him, there is nothing positive about Europe replacing its dependence on one authoritarian state with another.
Therefore, in the long term, the EU should aim to become independent from fossil fuels and, in the short term, diversify its supplies to allied countries with a similar geopolitical position and a common understanding of human rights.
The Bulgarian expert emphasized that Azerbaijan has always been an authoritarian state, but in recent years democratic institutions there have been completely destroyed, the personality of President Ilham Aliyev has been elevated to the status of cult and all democratic rights were crushed.
Azerbaijan lobbies against EU human rights
“Azerbaijan is putting pressure on Europe in every possible way to stop denouncing these crimes against human rights. It has been proven over the years how lobbyists worked to protect his positions. She had this problem with Russia before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and until today. Russia and Azerbaijan have used the services of “helpers” across the EU to change the bloc’s foreign policy position and protect their interests,” Vladimirov said.
He argued that the crushing of Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh could not have happened without the tacit support of Russia, which was the main guarantor of Armenia’s territorial integrity but decided not to not intervene in this conflict. This means that there was certainly cooperation with Baku – negotiations and coordination of actions before the Azerbaijani invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Vladimirov says there is a clear agreement between Azerbaijan and Russia on the continued supply of alternative energy to Europe.
“It is also suspected that Azerbaijan and Turkey are currently working with Gazprom to establish a new route for Russian supplies and to completely stop transit through Ukraine. This will be a major blow to the Ukrainian state. In fact, Azerbaijan and Turkey serve as a cover for large deliveries of Russian gas through the Balkans and to Central Europe,” Vladimirov said.
(Krassen Nikolov, Antonia Kotseva | Euractiv.bg)