The “brain drain” has become a sad refrain in the Western Balkans, where many young people dream of living and working abroad. But is the brain drain real and what impact does it have?
The expression refers to the emigration of highly skilled or highly skilled individuals from one country to another. In the Western Balkans, this reflects how thousands of young people typically move to EU countries to continue their studies or work.
But Janos Ammann, economics editor at EURACTIV.com, is not convinced this is necessarily a bad thing.
Is the brain drain real?
“In academia, brain drain is a controversial concept, as it is only one aspect of highly skilled labor emigration. But this emigration also offers opportunities. An obvious opportunity lies in the possibility of higher earnings for migrants themselves. But migrants also benefit their countries in other ways by sending money back to their home countries,” he said.
While this may be true in some cases, not all migrants send money home and many remittances come from second, third and fourth generation family members abroad.
Furthermore, there is no clear trend between Western Balkans and non-member countries regarding the amount of funds returned.
For examplesome countries have relatively low figures, such as non-EU member North Macedonia with 3.4%, or EU member Romania with 3%.
In the middle are Serbia (7.3%) and EU member Croatia with 7.1%.
This figure is significantly higher in third countries, Montenegro (12.6%), Kosovo (18.9%) and Albania (9.9%), while it is only 1.4 % in Bulgaria, which joined the bloc in 2007 and remains its poorest member.
These figures show that in some cases, the brain drain could indeed be compensated by remittances, but not in a generalized way.
What is the situation in the candidate countries?
In the early 1990s, thousands of Albanians left the country for Italy, Germany, the United States, Switzerland and neighboring Greece. There are more than 4.5 million Albanians outside Albania, while only 2.8 million remain.
According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Albania ranks fourth in the world for the emigration of highly skilled people. Up to 83% of people want to leave and almost half are actively trying to apply for a visa or look for a job.
Emigration figures have fallen slightly, but this is probably because most of those who could leave have already left. This is also attributed to the aging population and a low birth rate. The UN has suggested that if current trends continue, the Albanian population could be as low as 1.9 million by 2100.
The pressure on the economy is already being felt. Many Albanians do not want to work in manual labor, while other jobs, such as nursing and teaching, remain unfilled. Those with education and ambition leave in droves, and many do not return.
After receiving free education, Albanians will leave and not contribute to the system through social security and taxes. This could have a significant impact on the sustainability of pensions and social protection as well as maintaining free healthcare and education.
It’s a similar story in Serbia. A survey by the National Youth Council of Serbia, published in August, found that 50% of young people want to emigrate and 25% are planning to do so.
The main reasons for wanting to leave are the desire for a more dignified lifestyle and a higher standard of living, according to Vladamir Tintor of EURACTIV.rs
“The government’s economic migration strategy estimates that around half a million people left the country between 2007 and 2019, at a rate of between 30,000 and 60,000 per year. Most go to Germany, then Austria and Slovenia,” he said.
Across the border in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), data from the Statistics Agency’s 2019 Labor Force Survey indicates that some 530,000 people left the country between 2013 and 2019.
In many cases, those who leave also renounce their citizenship. Zeljko Trkanjec, EURACTIV correspondent for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, noted that since the end of the war in 1995, almost 85,000 people have done so.
As one young person in Trkanjec explained, “here, we don’t recognize enough education or diplomas. It is difficult to find a job in your profession with normal working conditions, good pay and where you can afford to pay your bills and live well,”
The consequences are likely to be serious, but Trkanjec believes the government has little motivation to enact changes.
“The main interest of politicians is to preserve their positions. Educated people leave, so it is easier for them to govern. The less educated are more likely to succumb to nationalist rhetoric,” he said.
And those who have been there before?
Croatia joined the EU in 2013, but before then people were leaving in droves to seek opportunities abroad. Trkanjec explained that since the 1960s, Croatians have been working regularly in Italy, Austria and Germany as guest workers before returning home. However, the situation changed when Croatia joined the EU in 2013.
“Croatia has been facing a population exodus since becoming a member of the EU. Many young people are leaving with their whole families, which is a big demographic problem,” Trkanjec said.
It is currently estimated that at least 350,000 people have left, or 9% of the population. This could reach 20% in terms of people in the labor market.
This caused problems, including a lack of qualified nurses.
In Bulgaria, between 1990 and 2007, when it joined the EU, it is estimated that 60,000 people left each year. Since joining the EU, this number has declined as the country’s economy has grown.
The figures cited by the Financial Times in 2018, there were around 30,000, with another 10,000 returning each year. But the low birth rate poses problems, which EURACTIV Bulgaria’s Krassen Nikolov called a “demographic catastrophe.”
“Bulgaria has had a strategy for several years, but nothing has been done. The impact of this has been enormous – from the loss of foreign investors due to labor shortages and long-term problems with economic growth,” he said.
Meanwhile, in Romania, the largest country in the region with 19 million inhabitants, the The population has declined since the fall of communism in 1989, and this only accelerated after joining the EU in 2007.
Official figures show a decline of around four million between 1990 and the end of 2020. Eurostat reports that more than a fifth of the country’s working population lives in another EU country – the largest diaspora in Europe and the fifth in the world, according to the OECD.
EURACTIV Romania’s Bogdan Neagu said: “Most of those who have emigrated have low levels of education and work in unskilled sectors, particularly in Italy and Spain. But highly skilled workers, including IT workers and healthcare professionals, have also left in large numbers and with significant consequences. »
The development of critical industries has been hampered by the lack of qualified personnel. The COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted the problem, as many regions lack sufficient medical staff, a shortfall of tens of thousands of people.
“Of the 231,000 employees in the Romanian health system, 14,000 are doctors. This is the same number of doctors who left the country between 2009 and 2015, according to the national health union Sanitas. An additional 28,000 nurses left in the same period,” he said.
As Carnegie Europe wrote in a research note in March, the EU, as the main beneficiary of the region’s brain drain, should consider policies “that address both push and pull factors, such as requiring hand-importing countries to “work to compensate countries of origin for the real cost of exporting talent.”
“An EU serious about joining must take responsibility as the main beneficiary of the Western Balkans brain drain and share the burden of finding a solution. »
(Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic)