“The future of the Balkans lies within the European Union.” European Union (EU) leaders made this declaration at the 2003 EU-Western Balkans summit in Thessaloniki, but what it means today in real terms remains more unclear than ever. Since these words were spoken, Croatia has been the only Western Balkan country to become a member of the EU. Kosovo’s independence from Serbia has further complicated any further enlargement of the EU to the Western Balkans. Few people mention the word “enlargement”.
“Enlargement is like a chicken with its head cut off,” a Serbian diplomat told BuzzFeed. “It still works, but in reality it’s dead.”
The EU membership promise was likely a tactical issue, mainly linked to the bloc’s attempt to maintain its influence in the Balkan countries, regional expert Eric Gordy of University College of London. For years, the ruling political leaders of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo were eager to at least give the impression that their countries were moving closer to the EU.
“Tactics have less and less influence,” Gordy said. “There appears to be a growing voice against enlargement. The EU must offer a realistic accession path if it is to maintain its influence.”
Learn more: The Balkans: from Yugoslav wars to an ever more tense peace
No agreement on fundamental values
The weakening of the West is a welcome turn of events for Russia, Turkey, China and the Gulf Arab states. European diplomats respond with rhetoric. “We want to integrate these countries into the EU,” Christian Hellbach, Germany’s special coordinator for the Western Balkans, told DW. “It’s no secret that this is moving slowly because not all stakeholders have a real interest in lasting reforms.” Rule of law, human rights and anti-corruption measures: this diplomatic formula of accession resounds daily in the Balkans. These elements are non-negotiable for the EU, Hellbach explained.
The Balkan region continues to struggle with the lack of an independent judiciary, media freedom and misuse of public funds by politicians. Additionally, political tensions seem insurmountable, such as the feud between Pristina and Belgrade over Kosovo, the name controversy between Macedonia and Greece, and the lack of popular will among the country’s three ethnic groups for constitutional reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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Only Montenegro and Serbia are in accession talks with the EU. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are not even official candidates.
Gordy is skeptical about the coming changes given the reluctance of Balkan elites to easily relinquish power. Rather, he sees two options: either the Balkan countries wait forever for EU membership, or the EU compromises on its accession criteria. “The EU has already done this,” Gordy said, highlighting the entry into the EU of Bulgaria and Romania, despite their significant corruption problems, and of Cyprus, although the internal borders of the The island remains unclear. These are now warning signs for Brussels, and there appears to be little desire to create more problems in the Union.
Interest falling – on both sides
“At the moment I cannot focus on enlargement,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in 2012. The economic crisis, refugees, Brexit and transatlantic relations under the presidency Trump remains the EU’s main concerns. Doubt is growing in Germany, according to two polls, even if the country is considered in the Balkans as the engine of European unity. Two-thirds of Germans surveyed last fall are opposed to short-term EU enlargement.
“Even the EU would struggle to meet its own membership criteria, if it were to join itself now,” said Sevim Dagdelen, a German lawmaker from the left party. She believes many see the EU as responsible for cuts to social services and are disappointed by the EU’s promises of general welfare. “In light of all this, there is growing skepticism about enlargement,” Dagdelen said.
Enlargement fatigue has long set in in the Balkans. The lack of a concrete plan could lead to a loss of trust among the region’s citizens, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said recently. “It’s bad for us and bad for the EU,” he said. And indeed, enthusiasm for the EU in the Western Balkans continues to fade. Last June, a majority of students at the University of Belgrade spoke out against EU membership.
“The EU’s strongest asset was its guarantee of the irreversibility of democratic reforms,” Gordy explained. But he believes Brussels’ weak response to authoritarian regimes in EU countries like Poland and Hungary has called into question the EU’s commitment.
Learn more: How to deal with a democratic crisis in Southeast Europe
A Marshall Plan for the Balkans?
Germany is count on the financial power of the EU to bring the Balkans closer to the EU. A customs union and common market for the six Balkan countries is often discussed – as is “Berlin Plus”, a German project aimed at using EU funds to finance major infrastructure projects, such as a motorway linking the Serbia, Kosovo and Albania. we support such projects,” Hellbach said.
Wednesday’s summit in Trieste will focus mainly on financial programs, such as the Marshall Plan for the Balkans. It remains to be seen where this money will come from. While some Balkan politicians welcomed the announcement of increased funding, they also expressed concern.
“No cooperation should slow down enlargement projects or replace them,” Montenegrin Foreign Minister Srdjan Darmanovic said.
For people in the Balkans, waiting in Europe’s wings means an uphill battle to survive, given the region’s high unemployment and low incomes. Thousands of people, mostly highly educated young people, migrate from the Balkans to Western Europe every year – a situation that leaves some cynically thinking they will only reach the EU by walking there alone.