AMSTERDAM, Nov 23 (Reuters) – Geert Wilders, the far-right populist who won the Dutch electionwill have to moderate his ideas such as banning the Koran, leaving the European Union and stopping all foreign aid if he is to succeed in forming – and leading – a coalition government.
Wilders, a political veteran whose outspoken views kept him out of power and under 24-hour security protection for years, won a clear mandate to lead government formation talks, winning 23 % of votes in the November 22 elections.
But if he wants to become prime minister, he will have to convince potential coalition partners that he is willing to compromise on long-standing calls to withdraw military support for Ukraine, cut spending on climate goals and the suppression of religious freedoms protected by the Constitution.
He needs the support of at least two more moderate parties to reach the required majority of 76 seats in Parliament’s 150 seats to form a right-wing government.
Much will depend on whether outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and Pieter Omtzigt’s centrist New Social Contract, both largely pro-European, are willing to work with him.
Wilders has shaped Dutch politics for years from the opposition benches, exploiting concerns about immigration and linking them to broader issues such as the cost of living, housing and health care. Major centrist parties have already taken tougher stances on immigration to avoid losing votes to the right, but none have followed Wilders’ frequent calls for a total immigration ban.
The Netherlands’ image in Brussels, as well as some political changes in relations with its European partners, would likely accompany a Wilders-led government. However, Dutch EU membership is not seen as an issue because it is non-negotiable for Wilders’ potential coalition partners.
“The Netherlands is still seen as a transparent, open, innovative and prosperous country with a very open society and it’s suddenly a different tone we hear – we see a more withdrawn and introspective side,” said Kees van Rij , former diplomat and advisor for international affairs at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague.
“The question is whether this will really change or whether, in the long term, as is often the case in the Netherlands, compromises and temporary solutions will be found,” he added.
FOREIGN POLICE
The Dutch are known for their pragmatic politics, open economy and centuries of foreign trade. Under Rutte, the longest-serving prime minister in Dutch history, the Netherlands was seen as a stable and predictable partner of the EU in turbulent times.
Wilders’ surprise victory indicates that the Netherlands is also not immune to Europe’s political shift to the right, which has seen the rise of populists in Poland, Italy, Hungary and Slovakia.
Dutch far-right politician and PVV party leader Geert Wilders reacts to the exit poll and first results of the Dutch parliamentary elections, in The Hague, Netherlands November 22, 2023. REUTERS/Yves Herman Acquire license rights
His remarks on Islam and the Prophet Muhammad earned him death threats. Fatwas were issued against him and he was forced to live under 24-hour protection.
“Whatever the next Dutch coalition looks like, its victory will change the political discourse, in the Netherlands and in Europe,” Eurointelligence wrote in a note on Thursday.
One of his party’s campaign pledges was to move the Dutch embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and immediately close its diplomatic office in the “corrupt” Palestinian Authority.
Calling for “Netherlands first” and closed borders, René Cuperus of the Dutch think tank the Clingendael Institute called it “the Trump moment of Dutch politics.”
“You could call it an earthquake. Nobody expected this result… not even Wilders himself,” he said.
A government led by Wilders could make European policymaking more difficult in several areas.
If he becomes prime minister, Wilder could seek to block increased payments to the EU budget, to which the Netherlands is a net contributor, thereby endangering new funds the EU wants to spend on Ukraine and migration management.
Wilders would also likely join Hungary in demanding a much tougher European stance on irregular migration and, like Slovakia, oppose providing more military equipment or money to Ukraine. The Dutch provided Kiev with more than 7 billion euros under Rutte’s leadership, including for the purchase of F-16 fighter jets.
Finally, he would likely oppose the admission of Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkan countries into the 27-nation bloc.
Much will depend on the slogans Wilders campaigned on to survive the coalition talks.
Dilan Yesilgoz, Rutte’s replacement as head of the VVD party, declared on the eve of the elections that she would not sit in any cabinet with Wilders as prime minister, although she did not rule out her party’s participation.
New Social Contract party leader Omtzigt said he could not compromise with Wilders on ideas that would violate the Dutch constitution – notably the very first words of the first article, which prohibits discrimination.
In previous years, Wilders had said he would remove the article, while banning the wearing of headscarves by Muslim women and closing mosques and Islamic schools, but he has since pledged to seek ground for agreement with other political parties.
Reporting by Anthony Deutsch and Toby Sterling. Additional reporting by Stephanie van den Berg and John Cotton in The Hague and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; Editing by Toby Chopra
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