Although European public opinion has focused in recent years on migratory waves originating in the Middle East and Africa, there is another parallel migration from the Western Balkans region, which has been occurring relatively quietly since the 1990s. This is a phenomenon known as the “brain drain” – the emigration of skilled, highly educated people in search of better-paying jobs or better working conditions, usually in the European Union and the United States.
In a recently published study on the brain drain by Gallup, the Western Balkan countries are the worst in Europe. The study, conducted between 2015 and 2017 on a sample of half a million people in 152 countries, shows that 42% of Kosovo citizens want to emigrate from the country, which is the worst ranking in Europe and the third in the world . In Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania, 32% of citizens want to leave and these countries are followed by Macedonia with 30% and Serbia with 25%. Surprisingly, Montenegro has a “positive” score, with the possibility of welcoming 25% of young and educated workforce from other countries.
This problem is increasingly recognized in the Western Balkans region and is on the agenda of many gatherings of politicians and business people. So, during one of these gatherings which took place in Belgrade this year, the brain drain and emigration of skilled labor was recognized as one of the main problems, and the need to stop these processes was also highlighted . Paradoxically, the Western Balkans are recognized as a region that can become borderless in 12 years, which would create up to 250,000 new jobs, and tens of billions of euros would therefore need to be invested to stop these processes.
Meanwhile, emigration continues.
“It’s not just a question of unemployment”
Even if young people seem to migrate to other countries exclusively because of unemployment, low wages or, for example, corruption, Andan Cerimagic, the analyst from the European Stability Initiative, points out that there are a number of other reasons.
“What is important to say when we talk about migration from the Western Balkans is that it is legal migration. In the 1990s in the Balkans we had refugees and asylum seekers, and today people go to study, work or join their families,” says Ćerimagić.
Alida Vracicexecutive director of Popular, agrees with this assessment. “The factors that come to the fore are economic factors or the inability to find a job, but in the same way they are followed by lasting dissatisfaction and the feeling that the desired changes are happening slowly or are not happening at all. ,” she says.
She believes that there are those who are satisfied materially or even professionally, but for them the suppression of freedom is a problem. “People just don’t want to live in this environment, so it’s no wonder they leave their country,” she adds.
“Entry into the European Union will only accentuate the migratory trend”
Both interlocutors agree that the trend of departures cannot be expected to decrease if the entire region joins the European Union. On the contrary, the trend towards departures will increase. For example, Croatia became a member of the EU in 2013, and the Between mid-2015 and mid-2016, the number of unemployed fell by 95,000 people, but the number of employed people increased by only 14,000, meaning that 80,000 people left the country.
“When we look at the example of neighboring Croatia, we see that entry into the EU was the final trigger and people started leaving the country in large numbers, which only confirms that the Membership alone will not hold anyone back. If there is no rule of law and opportunities for progress for citizens, if there is not enough freedom of expression and potential for creativity, membership in the European Union doesn’t mean much,” Vračić emphasizes.
She believes that if things continue as before, without investing in innovation, science and research, the region will forever be trapped in a secondary category of workers “who simply take the jobs of some and some”.
Ćerimagić believes that this trend will occur in all Western Balkan societies until the region’s economic challenges are resolved and until there is a “strong vision of society” in which citizens are ready to invest.
“If you take an Estonian who goes to live, for example, in Sweden, he has a completely different perspective compared to Bosnians or Serbs who leave the Balkans. When he thinks back to Estonia and the experience he gained, he may think that he could come back there or maybe he would like to transfer the knowledge he gained in Sweden or connect Swedish companies with those from Estonia. Here, examples of people who came back to start their businesses are very rare,” says Ćerimagić and adds that there is a need for a better business climate and a better connection between the economies of the Western Balkans.
The consequences of the brain drain are multiple
The consequences of the brain drain are multiple and the poorest countries are much more affected, due to the parallel investments in highly qualified workers who will leave.
The Bosnian Chamber of Medicine announced that in 2016, around 300 highly qualified doctors left the country. According to Vračić, this figure could be even higher, because some doctors leave the country immediately after finishing medical studies and are therefore not recorded in official statistics.
“Some media in Bosnia and Herzegovina have calculated that training a doctor costs around 150,000 euros, which means that more than 50 million euros are spent every year on training health workers who leave the country, which which leads to the collapse of the entire sector. A similar situation exists in the rest of the region, in the science, education and other sectors,” she adds.
In addition to the problem of staff shortages in almost all sectors, pension fund coverage may also be compromised. In the Western Balkans as well as in the European Union, we are witnessing a rapid aging of the working population. “Today, for every potential retiree, there are about four people of working age, and by 2050 there will probably be only two,” says Vračić.
On the other hand, Adnan Ćerimagić believes that leaving does not necessarily lead to negative consequences. “In many companies, they increase their employees’ salaries in the hope that they will keep them, which is a positive thing for the workers themselves. Another positive thing would be to start a public debate on how we govern ourselves or how we organize our society, Ćerimagić emphasizes, adding that “we must not abandon everything, but we must look for instruments to counter this phenomenon . “.
Too many empty words, but too few concrete measures
December 19, 2018, Germany adopted a law on skilled labor immigration with the aim of attracting labor by facilitating the recruitment of employers outside the European Union. The law has lit a red light for regional policymakers as they fear it could lead to wider migration. For example, Zoran Đorđević, Serbian Minister of Labor, announced that his ministry would form a team in early January 2019which will help the Serbian government to combat the problem of brain drain by proposing adequate measures.
However, both interlocutors believe that until now, the measures implemented in the region to combat this problem amount to empty words and promises.
Ćerimagić says that most regional politicians will answer negatively to the question of whether they want young people to emigrate. “The problem is that the debate does not take place at the level of principles. For this to change, we need to focus the debate on the quality of education,” adds Ćerimagić.
He believes that the education received must be applied practically. There is a need to collect and examine data that could serve as a basis for good public policy.
Alida Vračić believes that public debate does not even exist at all and that the proposed measures are generally neither meaningless nor feasible.
“Here and there there are sporadic questions of people leaving, but without context, without essence and very often this question is only approached in an emotional way, which is wrong. Although we have adopted a set of legally binding documents, developed various strategies and established institutions, you will find very little analysis on the benefits we have reaped so far from emigration, on how this process could be reversed and what is needed to make this happen. » explains Vračić.
Like Ćerimagić, she believes that data is very important when planning these measures. We need to know who is coming and who is leaving, at what time, with what skills and qualifications, and whether there is a possibility for them to return. No serious society can make a credible projection of development in the coming period, which is why it is necessary to make a series of changes in data collection, introducing administrative censuses and ongoing research to find out what is really happening, concludes Vračić.