*edited by Alexandre Jovanoskispeaking at the panel “What if the Western Balkans never became part of the EU” on the Belgrade Security Forum 2017.
Amid the relative progress made in the Western Balkans over the past decade, recent regional and international reports express serious concerns about the decline of democratic values and a return to populism and nationalist rhetoric in the region. Furthermore, annual reports published by the European Commission (EC) document a decline in the rule of law, raising serious questions about the success of the transition from post-communist countries to members of the Union. European. The implemented reforms and the modernization of institutions and society have revealed reversible trends, thus calling into question future developments in the Western Balkans.
Reflecting on the subject, what if the Balkans were never part of the EU, reality must be recognized and applied when analyzing the potential of this scenario. This well-known interest of the European Union, expressed in the so-called 2025 strategy for the accession of Serbia and Montenegro to the EU, is a reality that cannot be abandoned as a variable when examining the scenario. Furthermore, Trieste Summit The findings on the region appear to remind Western Balkan leaders of the need for regional integration by fostering their own capabilities and ownership of reforms for further democratization and well-being of the region. Thus, taking into account the above, the objective is to assess the “worst case scenario” of non-integration, using empirical evidence from research carried out by the EPI and its regional partners on monitoring the overall progress of the region .
To continue, even if the Western Balkan countries never become part of the European Union, crucial reforms in the rule of law and democracy remain essential to ensure the countries’ long-term prosperity and sustainability. The emphasis on political dialogue between political elites, strengthening institutional capacities and anchoring the rule of law is something the Western Balkans need for their economic development and societal progress. Analysis of the region’s current political landscapes, particularly in terms of democratic and political legitimacy, still shows a strong correlation with the notion of strong political parties and governments. Notions of governance, transparency and inclusion are still lacking, thus leading to strong political polarization and division along party and ethnic lines.
In the non-integration scenario, it is essential to discuss how society relies on itself to ensure political accountability and transparency of political elites. If society does not exert this influence, it will atrophy, as several political crises that have emerged in the Western Balkans in recent years have shown. Unfortunately, we have seen the need for a European presence to resolve internal political crises, which demonstrates the capacity of political elites to provide solutions and move society forward. In the current political context, resolving the internal crisis must encompass strong regional policy – or the ability to not be afraid to identify outstanding issues and discuss them openly. As the Macedonian case shows, the crisis presents a new opportunity for the country.
Despite the strong presence of the European Union to mitigate the resolution of the crisis, it was society (students, activists, civil society organizations) that enabled the stabilization of the country. In a relatively short time, Macedonia successfully achieved its internal rehabilitation and was able to make serious progress. The crisis can prepare the country to face its reality and a long-term trajectory. If the region offers an authentic national response to the emerging crisis and the EU offers consistency in its messaging to elites and the public, turning points are possible. In summary, EU membership is an instrument for reforming the democratic space and the rule of law. However, its own experience shows that if certain reforms are decided at the request of the European Union, without any ownership of society, the political class and the political elite, they have never taken place.
Although the pace of their EU accession efforts differs, the Western Balkan countries show surprising similarities in many areas, from the judiciary and public administration, to the media sector, to to the general state of the art in the field of the rule of law. This suggests that the EU’s influence in promoting painful reforms does not depend much on the stage reached in the overall attempt to join the EU. Rather, the future success of the required rule of law reforms depends on several complex long-term processes, which involve the priorities of separating ruling parties from the state apparatus, creating a more favorable environment for independent media and CSOs, and to guarantee the promotion of the rule of law. the activity and independence of key institutions in the anti-corruption chain, in particular the police, prosecutors and judges.
However, flexible prevention mechanisms, which have so far been largely underestimated, also need to be reaffirmed in the region. Monitoring political developments in key areas of the region has clearly demonstrated the untenability of the region’s non-integration into the European Union. Countries still face deep divisions across political lines and parties, and the rule of law is far from entrenched. The sustainability and development of the Western Balkans depends on ownership of reforms and strong monitoring mechanisms by civil society.