At the Bled Strategic Forum in Slovenia, the President of the European Council Charles Michel gave a powerful speech on EU enlargement. The speech set out a concrete vision for the future of the enlargement process, demonstrating a new level of commitment that EU candidate countries have been asking for years from the European Council. The Council has long been seen as a signal light for the EU enlargement process – signaling (at different times) the need to wait, proceed with caution or move forward. And sometimes the signals are mixed. Again in October 2019, France, supported by the Netherlands and Denmark, vetoed the opening of negotiations for North Macedonia and Albania, the former candidate country since 2005. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, however, there has been a new dynamic of enlargement, Ukraine, the Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina receiving candidate country status in 2022. Charles Michel’s speech clearly seeks to continue this momentum.
In his speech, Michel called for the EU to be ready for the next “big” enlargement by 2030. This involves two aspects: 1) the EU undertakes internal reforms to improve its “absorption” capacity and 2) intensifying the accession process to ensure that candidate countries are ready to assume their accession responsibilities. The timetable is ambitious, but not unattainable.
The debate on the reform of European institutions and potentially the treaties is not new. In 2021, the EU itself organized the largest democratic exercise – the Conference on the Future of Europe – to shape the debate on its future development. Among 49 recommendations These were concrete measures aimed at modifying the institutional framework of the EU in order to better respond to future challenges, notably enlargement. According to As in France and Germany, two of the most ardent supporters of such reforms, more and more member states are realizing the need for reforms in order for the EU to be ready for enlargement. However, discussions on reform in the Council so far have shown more divisions than agreements. After Charles Michel’s speech, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg made it clear that Austria no support any changes to the EU Treaty. Austria and several other member states fear such a debate “could actually tear apart” the EU. Discussions on reforms must be handled delicately to avoid undermining the EU’s credibility as a global actor.
Michel rightly cites improving the accession process as equally essential to enlargement by 2030. In October, the European Commission will publish its latest enlargement package, with reports providing detailed assessments of the progress of each candidate country. Montenegro and Serbia began their accession negotiations in 2012 and 2014 respectively, Albania and North Macedonia in July last year, while Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina are still awaiting the decision of the Council of the EU. agreement on a negotiation framework. Furthermore, in some candidate countries progress has stalled, even in the case of Turkey. regressed. A new major enlargement, as recommended by Charles Michel, is therefore difficult to envisage if the process remains the same.
A new major enlargement, as recommended by Charles Michel, is therefore difficult to envisage if the process remains the same.
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the Thessaloniki Declaration which paved the way for Western Balkan countries to join the EU. Having a clearer timetable and reform commitments to integrate the new member states is certainly a step in the right direction for the EU to remain a credible partner. However, as Charles Michel said said, “integrating new members (…) will not be easy”. The same day, French President Emmanuel Macron gave a speech delivered at the annual gathering of French ambassadors in Paris, recognizing the need for EU reform ahead of enlargement, potentially towards a “multi-speed” union. The question of how this would fit into the ambitious timetable and commitment expressed by the President of the European Council remains open, and President Macron is expected to elaborate on this point in the coming months.
Elections to the European Parliament and the possibility of a new European Commission next year bring additional uncertainty to the enlargement process. Could the European Commission’s next strategic program result in a watered-down compromise on the 2030 commitment? As enlargement fatigue increases in many candidate countries, the EU must find a courageous new balance between the merit-based and geostrategic aspects of the enlargement process.