Attitudes have evolved in favor of membership in France and Germany since 2018
Shortly after Russia’s invasion of his country last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky put pressure on the EU by calling for Ukraine’s immediate admission into the bloc.
Although there have been many expressions in favor of accelerating the process in the case of Ukraine, it remains unlikely that the nation will soon find itself within the organization.
Nevertheless, a new YouGov study shows that there is clear support for Ukraine’s EU membership among the public in the four largest member states: Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
Spaniards are the most supportive of Ukraine joining the EU, with six in ten (60%) willing to see the struggling nation join the bloc. Only 14% are opposed to it.
On the other hand, support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU is only in the majority in Germany (46%), Italy (45%) and France (42%). This nevertheless represents a notable advance on the number of opponents (30% in each country).
This also represents a significant shift in opinion in France and Germany, where this question was also asked in late 2018. At the time, only 22% of French and 30% of Germans thought Ukraine should be allowed to enter , both greatly outnumbered by the government. 47 to 49% who opposed it.
Although it is possible that attitudes may have changed in the period leading up to the recent conflict, there is strong evidence to suggest that the Russian invasion is the catalyst for much of this change.
Although the desire to see most of the countries we surveyed join the EU has increased in France and Germany since 2018, this increase is particularly significant in the case of Ukraine. In France, the net shift from -27 to +12 is 39 points, eclipsing the second largest increase (Albania, up 21 points from -43 to -22).
Similarly, in Germany, the 33 point increase in net support for Ukraine’s EU membership is much higher than that of second-place Turkey (a 21 point increase from -65 to -44) .
The same survey also shows that net support for Russia’s membership in the EU has decreased considerably in these two countries since 2018, from -40 to -69 in France and from -35 to -60 in Germany.
Aside from Ukraine, the only countries with consistent support for EU membership in the four countries surveyed are Norway, Switzerland and Iceland, all of which receive majority support. The desire to see these nations admitted is roughly the same in France as in 2018, even if it has decreased somewhat in Germany, by seven to ten net points in each case.