The European Union published a critical report on Wednesday on the state of bilateral political, economic and trade relations with Turkey. The report is important because it expresses political will for the continuation of a positive agenda after relations remained at an impasse for years. However, issues such as the Cyprus question could weaken the process.
Relations between Ankara and Brussels have experienced ups and downs since the signing of an association agreement in 1964. Areas of disagreement include the Eastern Mediterranean, the Cyprus issue, Turkey’s role in Syria, the crisis of migrants and the impasse in the accession process. More recently, due to new geopolitical realities, sanctions against Russia as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have also been added to the report.
With accession negotiations stalled for years, this report explores how ties can be strengthened in different areas – including visa liberalization, updating the customs union and the migration issue. Furthermore, it suggests increased engagement with Ankara in areas of mutual interest, such as trade, investments, connectivity, green and digital transition and energy. On the other hand, he also stressed that this commitment was “reversible”. It now remains to be seen whether the commission’s recommendations contained in the report will be accepted by the council, which is scheduled to meet in mid-December.
The committee welcomed the constructive stance in the Eastern Mediterranean after years of tensions with EU member Greece; Yet the language used on this issue was clearly pro-Greece, ignoring Türkiye’s theses on rights in the shared seas between the two neighbors. In terms of alignment in the wider region, the report highlights that Ankara’s policies are at odds with the EU’s security and foreign policies, and that this alignment is around 10%. Ankara’s efforts in favor of the grain initiative and mediation between Ukraine and Russia were praised, while trade ties with Moscow, the end of Sweden’s NATO candidacy and the Contacts with the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria were seen as negative aspects.
The issue of obtaining visas for Turkish citizens has frustrated Ankara in recent years. Long processing times and significantly increased rejection rates for visa applications from Turks to the 27 Schengen countries have disrupted travel and business plans. The report’s message is that visa liberalization, which is linked to the remaining chapters, must remain a long-term goal, while suggesting in the meantime promoting “visa facilitation” to resolve current problems.
Regarding the modernization of the customs union, the report calls for “addressing trade irritants, cooperating with us to prevent the circumvention of sanctions against Russia and creating a climate conducive to the resumption of negotiations on the Cyprus settlement “.
Here, as in the broader EU-Turkey process, the Cyprus issue poses a permanent obstacle. Both sides have deep disagreements and views on the issue. While Ankara advocates a two-state system in which the island’s two communities could live side by side in peace, the EU aims for a bicommunal, bizonal federation. The EU is also troubled by Turkey’s efforts to push for recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) on international platforms. In fact, in 2004, the Greek Cypriot administration thwarted the Annan peace plan to reunify the island despite Turkey supporting it. While the Greek Cypriot administration has obstructed Turkey’s entry process into the EU, Ankara has blocked direct trade with it, as well as direct air and sea links, thus posing a problem within the bloc. Therefore, linking the modernization of the customs union, which dates back to 1995, to the Cyprus issue calls for caution and could lead to a new deadlock in cooperation. Nevertheless, the report says that resuming negotiations for Cyprus, instead of completely resolving the issue, will be enough to make progress. If the bloc does not reverse this statement and appears satisfied despite Turkey’s promotion of a two-state solution in the negotiations, progress on the customs issue is possible.
Another issue of common interest was the resolution of the migration crisis. A new development is that the report suggests that the EU supports voluntary and safe returns of Syrians from Turkey to northern Syria – an issue that Ankara has long championed by creating briquette houses and a safe environment in the region . The EU, with the cooperation of the International Organization for Migration and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, is ready to take steps in this direction and is expressing political will.
A smart and constructive decision by the EU was to separate accession negotiations from discussions on other issues for a mutually beneficial partnership – thus allowing areas of cooperation not to freeze due to their link to the EU process. adhesion difficult.
The process
Although the issue of Turkey’s EU accession process is separate, it remains an essential part of ties with the EU. The application for membership was a subject of the report on enlargement policy and the country of 8 November.
Turkey’s long-term goal of full membership was once again strongly emphasized by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan after his re-election at the NATO meeting in Vilnius in July, where he surprised everyone by linking Sweden’s candidacy for NATO with Turkey’s candidacy for the EU.
Turkey has the longest history with the union and the longest negotiation process. The association agreement was signed in 1964, which is generally considered a first step in eventually becoming a candidate. Official candidate in 1987, Turkey had to wait until 1999 to obtain the status of candidate country. However, to start negotiations, Turkey had to wait another six years, until 2005, a particularly long process compared to other candidates. With the accession of the Greek Cypriot administration to the EU in 2004, the process became further complicated and was blocked in 2010 due to the Cyprus problem. Greek Cypriots and France rallied behind members to block the opening of new chapters. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel proposed the term “privileged partnership” for Turkey that same year, raising the possibility of a different engagement with the country other than a full-fledged accession process. Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy supported him.
In fact, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) was a strong advocate of EU membership during its early years, carrying out several reforms and working to align the country with the block. However, growing disagreements and the aftermath of Turkey’s 2016 coup attempt have increased divisions within the largely Muslim nation of 85 million. Politics has taken relationships captive.
However, in addition to the bilateral points of disagreement with Turkey, other factors have also contributed to the blocking of the process. First, the EU has begun to question whether enlargement is a necessary or even useful effort for the bloc. Disunity exists among its many members. The Balkans, or what the EU calls the Western Balkans, face similar problems. Second, there is a credibility problem when it comes to applications and memberships. Do member states like Bulgaria, Greece or the Greek Cypriot administration meet all the criteria that a country like Turkey cannot? Is it right for some members to put obstacles in the way of Turkey’s candidacy or that of North Macedonia? Are these obstacles and demands even based on “fundamental EU values”? We must not forget that the bloc took Cyprus despite its fragmentation. Were the criteria met despite this state of affairs? Are member states like Poland and Hungary really fully aligned with these stated EU values? Furthermore, the recent and rapid EU candidacy granted to Ukraine and Moldova raises further questions about what elements are necessary for such processes. Is it political will or criteria? Was it the war against Russia or the values of the EU that drove the process?
Turkey’s bid for EU membership will remain an uncertain prospect for the future. Voices within the country also questioned whether membership was a necessity, as Ankara began to pursue its own autonomous policies, trying to strengthen its role as a regional and international player. For now, it is essential to continue constructive engagement and focus on areas of cooperation as suggested in the commission’s report and leave membership as the long-term goal.