The two devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria within hours of each other in February 2023 affected 11 cities and caused the deaths of more than 55,000 people. For Turkey, this is the largest event of its kind in 500 years. A few months later, in September, an earthquake shook the Atlas Mountains and Marrakech in Morocco, killing 3,000 people. In Italy, hundreds of tremors hit the region west of Naples, including a magnitude 4.2 earthquake at the end of September. Then, in October, more than 2,400 people died when three earthquakes struck Afghanistan’s Herat province.
Worldwide, it is estimated that there are half a million detectable earthquakes each year, of which 100 cause damage (1). According to data from Allianz Commercial (2), earthquakes and tsunamis are the fifth leading cause of natural disaster losses, accounting for 6% of natural disaster losses in total value.
In addition to their tragic consequences in human lives, earthquakes cause enormous financial costs. Economic losses from the Turkey-Syria earthquake are estimated at around $91 billion, with the Insurance Association of Turkey estimating total losses to the private insurance sector at TRY76 billion ($4 billion). Turkey’s public catastrophe insurance pool has received almost 600,000 claims, with total payouts expected to reach TRY 29.5 billion ($1.6 billion) (3).
These losses are significant, but in comparison, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan – considered the costliest natural disaster in history in terms of economic losses ($360 billion (4)) – resulted in insured losses of $47 billion, while the 1994 Northridge earthquake in the United States totaled insured losses of $31 billion (sums adjusted for inflation in 2022 (5)). The estimated costs of losses resulting from the sequence of four Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand in 2010–2011 are estimated at over $22 billion (6).
There is currently no reliable technology to predict when and where an earthquake will occur, according to Ceyhun Eren, Director at Allianz Teknik and Risk Engineering, Turkeyone of the most seismically active countries in the world. “That’s why we focus so much on prevention and preparedness. By understanding risk and integrating earthquake resilience, we can reduce potential damage to buildings and save lives.
Although seismic models are not predictions, they can tell us the average frequency with which an earthquake with certain characteristics may occur in a given city or area. At the Allianz Teknik Earthquake and Fire Testing and Training Center, a large facility in Istanbul, Eren’s team of researchers uses “shaking tables” to simulate the structural and non-structural damage that earthquakes can cause, as well as hands-on training, helping to increase public awareness of what to expect in the event of a strike.
“Earthquakes cannot be avoided, but we can learn to live with them” Eren said. “People are never ready for that moment when the ground beneath their feet begins to shake. It’s like being on a moving bus that suddenly brakes and throws you forward (see panel).”