The second round of elections will pit an heir to a banana empire, Daniel Noboa, and a lawyer, Luisa González.
In another year or in another country, their experience in business and law could help them deliver on their election promises. But all Ecuadorians want is security, and they demand that it be achieved in a tiny fraction of the time it took other countries to resolve the problem.
“There’s nothing that fails like success,” said Lowell Gustafson, a professor of Latin American politics at Villanova University. “Whoever wins this election will have to deal with this… but I don’t know what can be expected of the president in such a short period of time, with what seem to be virtually intractable problems. »
Ecuador, bordered by the Pacific Ocean and the Andes, is in a downward spiral. Virtually no one feels safe amid unprecedented violence that erupted about three years ago with a surge in criminal activity.
It has reached an unthinkable level since August, starting with the assassination in broad daylight of a presidential candidate. Fernando Villavicencio, who had a notoriously tough stance on organized crime and corruption, was fatally shot on August 9, just days before the first round of the presidential election, despite having a security service composed of police officers and bodyguards.
Since then, other politicians and political leaders have been killed or kidnapped, car bombs have exploded in several cities, including the capital, Quito, and inmates have rioted in prisons. The government’s lack of oversight even allowed, earlier this month, the killing of seven men held in prison as suspects in Villavicencio’s murder.
National police recorded 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, far more than the 2,042 reported during the same period in 2022. That year ended with 4,600 violent deaths, the highest in the country’s history and double the 2021 total.
“Maybe the new president will do something, I hope, whatever it takes, because we are doing really badly with this problem of insecurity,” said Edson Guerra, a painter who had his cell phone stolen this weekend. “Before, we threatened those who had money, now it’s all of us, even those who don’t have much.”
Voting is compulsory in Ecuador.
The election was called by President Guillermo Lasso dissolve the National Assembly in May to avoid indictment over alleged irregularities in a contract with the state-owned oil shipping company. Lasso, a conservative former banker, continually clashed with lawmakers after his election in 2021. He decided not to run in the special election and the winner of Sunday’s vote will complete his four-year term.
Noboa and González, who both served short stints as lawmakers, advanced to the runoff by besting six other candidates in the first round of the election on August 22.
Noboa, 35, is the heir to a fortune built on Ecuador’s main crop, bananas. His political career began in 2021, when he won a seat in the National Assembly and chaired its economic development commission. He opened an event planning business at the age of 18, then joined Noboa Corp. from his father, where he held management positions in the fields of shipping, logistics and commerce.
González, 45, held various government positions during the decade-long presidency of Rafael Correa, his mentor, and served as a lawmaker until May. She was unknown to most voters until Correa’s party chose her as its presidential candidate. Early in the campaign, she said Correa would be her adviser, but she has recently tried to distance herself somewhat in order to court voters opposed to the former president.
The causes of this outbreak of violence are complex. But it’s all about cocaine trafficking. Mexican, Colombian and Balkan cartels have established themselves in Ecuador.
Authorities attribute the rise in violence to a power vacuum following the 2020 assassination of Jorge Zambrano, aka “Rasquiña” or “JL,” the leader of the local gang Los Choneros. Its members commit contract killings, run extortion operations, transport and sell drugs, and run prisons.
Los Choneros and similar groups linked to cartels are fighting for drug trafficking routes and control of territory, including within prisons, where at least 400 inmates have died since 2021.
González promised to purge the police ranks of bad actors; investing in intelligence, technology and other equipment for the police; and increase the presence of law enforcement at the country’s borders.
Noboa proposed changes to the country’s intelligence efforts; more ammunition and other equipment for police officers, now outnumbered by criminals; and a strong military presence in prisons, ports and roads. It also used barges to house detainees.
Gustafson said candidates face an additional hurdle. Neither Noboa nor González’s parties have enough seats in the National Assembly to be able to govern alone.
“I’m pessimistic,” he said. “I think the Ecuadorian president is doomed. How will he take control of these cartels?
Associated Press writer Gonzalo Solano in Quito, Ecuador, contributed to this report.
