The two leaders both wore blue plaid blazers in April. Aleksandar Vucic wore it to vote in the presidential election, even though he had already won the first round. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared at a polling station there during the referendum that allowed him to consolidate power under a new presidential system. The nearly identical clothing gives the leaders a modern, casual look, which Twitter users in Serbia have dubbed the “dictator’s blazer.”
More than their style, the two men display a penchant for absolute power, notably by demeaning the opposition and critical media. They present themselves as tireless defenders of their people, creating jobs and prosperity.
This is precisely the theme of Erdogan’s visit to Belgrade on October 10, accompanied by 150 business leaders. This may not be unusual for Erdogan, but the Serbian government is presenting it as a major event that will bring more money to its citizens.
Everyone is satisfied
According to economists, Turkey’s interest lies in exports, without which the country cannot achieve its new growth target of 5.5 percent. The Western Balkans providing Turkey with cheap labor and a lower barrier to entry into the EU market.
“Turkey’s accession to the EU almost died“, Atilla Yesilada, a Turkish economist and political commentator, told DW. “So it is a major advantage that Turkish companies produce in countries that are closer to the EU or even the members themselves.
Vucic is interested in new investment and jobs. It is prepared to offer foreign investors subsidies of around 10,000 euros ($11,700) per job. The Serbian leader regularly proclaims his goal of having the strongest growth in Europe, but the country’s figures tell a different story. Over the past three years, its average GDP growth of 1.6 percent is the worst in the region, behind Montenegro (7.7 percent), Kosovo (9.1 percent) and Macedonia (10.2 percent). hundred). Its average monthly income is one of the lowest in Europe, less than 400 euros.
Turkish investments would mainly go to sectors that require the least skills and innovation, Yesilada said. Low-cost jeans for Turkish companies are already made in Serbia by more than 1,000 workers, a number expected to triple, according to the Serbian government.
If Turkey were to enter Serbia’s timber and dairy sectors, as rumors in the local press say, it would constitute “an immediate boost for the Balkan countries which would at the same time make them exporters for the “Turkish economy,” Yesilada said.
Neo-Ottoman dreams
Turkish investment in the region remains measured, according to Biljana Stepanovic, editor-in-chief of Nova Ekonomija, a Belgrade-based financial magazine. The Western Balkans comprise six countries with a total population of around 20 million, and each of these states – Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro – is waiting for its turn to join the EU. Turkish exports there total less than 2 billion dollars per year, below the level of those to Israel or Azerbaijan, countries of less than 10 million each. It remains to be seen to what extent Turkey wants to invest in the region, Stepanovic said.
Given the large Muslim population in the Western Balkans, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina and AlbaniaTurkey may have more than a financial interest at stake. Mosques, schools and civil society organizations are already funded.
“This is also a neo-Ottoman rise. Turkey maintains the illusion that its former colonies are waiting for it with open arms,” Yesilada said. But Turkey has other good reasons to have political interests in the Western Balkans, including regional stability, he explained. Given the Turkish government’s view that the EU could soon become more rival than partner, “the Balkans can become a political playground,” Yesilada said.
