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On February 6, the European Commission will present its new strategy for EU enlargement. Residents of the Western Balkans may greet this news with skepticism.
But if EU institutions and states are truly willing to put an end to the EU’s political drift and commit to supporting human rights and the rule of law in the region instead of sclerosis in the name of stability, this could be a new beginning.
THE Bulgarian Presidency is already determined to bring the Western Balkans closer to the EU, notably by organizing a specific summit in May in Sofia which could create momentum.
Western Balkan states have struggled for much of the past 25 years to emerge from the devastation of conflicts that led to the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.
The transition towards stable democratic societies, respectful of rights and the rule of law is incomplete.
Reckless politicians use the “ethnic card” when it suits them, undoing years of rapprochement between former enemies or blocking exchanges between experts. Judicial cooperation aimed at uncovering the truth, prosecuting war criminals or uncovering mass graves would benefit all parties. evading the truth has become the norm.
Investigations are stalled or halted, prosecutions are rare, and convicted war criminals are glorified as heroes.
For most of this decade, the EU’s efforts to use its clout and influence to bring the Western Balkans onto a democratic and rights-respecting path have been superficial. Progress reports linked formally to the “Copenhagen” membership criteria affirmed that progress was being made while reports from non-governmental organizations continued to highlight a more worrying reality.
Toothless
And as the repeated failure to end political discrimination in the Bosnian constitution shows, the region’s leaders know that the EU’s calls for them to respect human rights have been ineffective.
Meanwhile, EU leaders tend to pay attention to the region only when political violence erupts – as in the crisis. recent murder of Oliver Ivanovica Serbian politician based in northern Mitrovica – where the threat of violence is great.
This minimalist policy has failed the populations of the Balkans.
Limited political and criminal accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity has left open wounds for victims of conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo and Macedonia.
The political impasse between nationalist parties and ethnically divided entities in Bosnia, as well as the antagonism between Belgrade and Pristina, are more relevant than ever.
The impact of the groundbreaking trials of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, which ended operations, has not carried over to domestic courts.
And the EU has shown little interest in prosecuting national courts, with the late exception of the special court for Kosovo, which Kosovo politicians are working to undermine.
They also did not support the creation of a regional truth commission tasked with establishing a single narrative of conflicts and helping people come to terms with the past, a move long advocated by civil society groups.
Incomplete transitions and stagnant economies have led to distrust in government. The region’s politicians, increasingly angered by criticism from civil society and the media, are focusing their energies on stifling criticism. They also have no qualms about interfering in the justice system in ways that compromise its independence.
Maximum leverage before joining
EU officials know from experience that it is best to demand transformative reforms while negotiations are underway. Then it might be too late. Consider Croatia, where the lack of rigorous post-accession monitoring meant that the country continued to sponsor and glorify war criminals well after its entry into the EU in 2013, or even at Romania, where the rule of law is a real concern today.
The symbolic meaning of EU membership may have faded – few people can truly believe that new Balkan states will join by 2025, but this prospect still holds significant potential for improvement in the full spectrum of social, economic, civil and political rights.
To ensure that a new strategy can harness this potential, it must include strong monitoring and enforcement systems. Legal reforms only matter if they are implemented reliably and sustainably.
If the EU is serious this time, it must make more ambitious and determined efforts to put rights and the rule of law – the core Copenhagen criteria – back at the top of the enlargement agenda.
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