How 3 ex-prime ministers could end up jostling for a job – POLITICO

Small countries sometimes have the biggest ambitions.

After a decade at the head of a Grand Duchy of only 650,000 inhabitants, Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel faces an uncertain future.

Polls suggest he is fighting against the odds in this weekend’s parliamentary elections, with the Christian Social People’s Party (CSV) on track to win cut Bettel’s liberals out of government.

If he loses the election, he will join a large group of newly unemployed former leaders and other potential candidates competing for some of the most important posts in European Union politics.

Many of them come, like Bettel, from the small group of neighboring countries that is the Benelux (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg).

The three Benelux countries were among the six founding member countries of the EU. They have long enjoyed what some would call outsized influence over how the bloc is run in the decades since its creation, including taking on many of these prized positions at the top of European institutions.

Charles Michel, the former Belgian Prime Minister, is currently President of the European Council, representing member countries. Jean-Claude Juncker, Bettel’s predecessor in Luxembourg, served as president of the EU executive, the European Commission, until 2019.

Even before the election results are known, Bettel’s name is already circulating among diplomats and Brussels officials who are preparing the big sharing of the highest posts which will take place after the European elections next June.

Traditionally, this conundrum is a long process that devolves into highly political disputes over the behind-the-scenes deals in which top jobs are awarded.

A potential opening for Bettel could be the role of head of EU diplomacy, officially called the high representative of the Union for foreign affairs and security policy.

Bettel recent travel in the Balkans have been noticed in diplomatic circles, as has his two-day trip to European leaders’ meetings in Grenada just days before this weekend’s elections.

In theory, Bettel could be an obvious candidate for the role of high representative. After a decade spent attending dozens of European Councils, he knows the sensitivities of the other 26 capitals on foreign policy issues.

But there are also doubts. The head of European diplomacy must carefully calibrate his words and this is perhaps not Bettel’s greatest strength.

“Bettel is a rather emotional politician,” said a national official who has observed Bettel at several European Councils. “It enlivens the European debates, but there seems to be a certain improvisation on his part.”

A second diplomat, who has also closely followed leaders’ meetings for years, said Bettel was often funny during closed-door summits. But diplomats can have difficulty joking in public.

For example, during a debate on the need for the EU to fund fences to keep out migrants, a debate strongly supported by Warsaw, Bettel joked that Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was “against penetration.”

Speculation about Bettel does not stop at the role of diplomat. He has also been presented as a potential candidate to succeed Michel as president of the European Council.

A spokesperson for Bettel insisted that as his party’s lead candidate in the elections, this “translates clearly into his desire to remain Prime Minister over the coming years and to continue to serve his country in this function “.

Crowded field

There may be competition.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has announced he will leave domestic politics after the November elections, following the fall of his government in July. As one of Europe’s longest-serving leaders, Rutte has been linked to a number of high-profile positions, including NATO chief.

The outgoing prime minister has previously said he is not interested in taking on such a major international role and those close to him insist his view has not changed. But many politicians have denied their interest only to be convinced to run at a later date.

Another liberal on the way out of Dutch domestic politics is Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands Sigrid Kaag. A former senior UN diplomat and foreign minister, Kaag’s name also circulated this summer in connection with his functions in Brussels.

Current Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo is often cited by European diplomats discussing the best candidates, for example as a potential foreign policy chief. De Croo has denied being interested, especially as he is due to lead his party in next year’s Belgian elections, which will take place on the same day as the European Parliament elections.

“He is now focused entirely on Belgian politics,” said a Belgian official when asked about De Croo’s interest in becoming head of European diplomacy. “Be that as it may, he is in no way interested in this position. »

However, diplomats say that since Belgium will hold the rotating presidency of the Council in the first months of next year, in the run-up to the European elections, it will have a practical platform on the European stage to increase its chances of winning. obtain an international role. .

Move, Benelux

With so many liberal contenders within the Benelux group, some are beginning to wonder whether these three small nations should be given top positions.

With Juncker, Michel and former European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, the Benelux countries have had their share. Coming from the bloc’s smaller states, the former Benelux leaders were seen as compromise-makers, fluent in several languages ​​and already accustomed to the EU political machine.

But Benelux countries should not take these historic advantages for granted, diplomats from other EU countries have warned.

Central and Eastern European leaders, such as Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, have already made explicit that they think it’s time to cast a wider net. There are currently no Eastern Europeans at the top of the EU’s three main institutions.

Camille Gijs and Clothilde Goujard contributed to the report.