How Biden can make a big difference in the Western Balkans

Joe Biden is no stranger to the Balkans. The president-elect began the first of his regular visits to the region in the early 1990s, first to Bosnia and Herzegovina and then to Kosovo. He met with political, religious and community leaders and developed long-standing personal relationships with many of them. In confidential letters to these leaders over the years, he advocated for inter-ethnic social cohesion and religious tolerance. Biden spoke passionately in the US Senate on the need to arm the Bosnians to protect themselves in their fight against the Serbs and on the need to remove Slobodan Milosevic and Serbian forces from Kosovo. Biden is also the first senior US official to have expressed his condolences to the Serbs for the NATO airstrikes which took place in March-June 1999.

For many decades, the United States and the European Union have shared the same goals in the Western Balkans, but their relationship has deteriorated over the past four years. Donald Trump’s special envoy, Richard Grenell, has wreaked havoc and antagonized many in the EU and the region with his foreign policy adventurism, sidelining EU efforts and developing initiatives which had little to do with creating peace and prosperity. Biden’s privileged relationship with the Balkans should facilitate the restoration of transatlanticism and the relaunch of common efforts in the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Balkans. Trump’s instrumentalization of the Balkans – at one point he appeared to claim to have made peace between Serbia and Kosovo – has created cynicism in the region about American values ​​and goals. It has also sparked skepticism about Europe’s ability to breathe new life into the ongoing Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, which aims to improve relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Under the new administration, there will undoubtedly be a change in tone and approach.

The EU is expected to use the next four years to tackle outstanding issues in the Balkans, while there is a foreign policy team in the White House that can bring complex knowledge to bear on Balkan issues. Brussels should develop a joint strategy with Washington in three key policy areas: the Serbia-Kosovo negotiation process; the European Green Deal and energy diversification; and China.

Serbia-Kosovo negotiation process

The return of a more familiar form of US intervention in the Western Balkans is already welcomed by many (and feared by some), as the widespread impression is that the EU is struggling to persuade the parties to get along on lasting solutions to long-standing problems. This new context will give the EU Special Representative, Miroslav Lajcak, the opportunity to speak and act on behalf of the transatlantic community. In Kosovo, the EU-US tandem could guide the country towards a peaceful transition of power ahead of new general elections next month, potentially extending aid to a new generation of politicians who have the legitimacy to achieve an agreement with Serbia and keep its commitments. he. As a young and fragile democracy, Kosovo has proven that generational change in politics can take place. Last year, the Vetevendosje party entered government for the first time with a program to fight corruption, economic recovery and management of the pandemic. But it fell after only a few months, following a motion of censure benefiting from the strong support of Grenell. This dealt a serious blow to Kosovo’s fragile internal democracy and the years the United States said Kosovars needed to learn how to build their country and strengthen their democracy. Among other results, there has been a rise in anti-American sentiment in the most pro-American country in the world.

In Belgrade, Washington should make it clear to Aleksandar Vucic that it will not support the Serbian president’s growing authoritarianism and his attempts to pit Europe and America against each other. If Serbia ever wants to build resilience against Russia in the areas of energy and security and resist Russia’s diplomatic influence in the Balkans – particularly with regard to statehood in Kosovo – it will need help from the EU. The Biden administration could offer support by strengthening democratic and progressive forces that would rely less on Russia and China’s military aid and more on forward-looking processes guiding the country toward EU integration. -Atlantic. A recent survey conducted by the Belgrade Center for Security Policy revealed that half of Serbs believe that there is no democracy in the country.

The European Green Deal and energy diversification

The recent appointment of John Kerry as Special Presidential Representative for Climate Change demonstrates not only the new administration’s determination to uphold the Paris Agreement, but also its desire to lead global efforts to protect climate change. ‘environment. The EU Green Deal aims to bring Europe to climate neutrality by 2050. The six Western Balkan accession countries are also expected to undertake transformational changes in order to meet the EU’s admission criteria. EU. The good news is that the Balkan countries can already offer attractive assets to investors. supporting Europe’s energy transition. The new US administration is well positioned to support EU and Western Balkan states with the appropriate incentives, such as financial assistance, to make the region more attractive for energy diversification – by having multiple sources of supply and being less dependent on Russia. If the United States imposes sanctions on TurkStream, a project run by Gazprom, it would help Western Balkan countries reduce their dependence on Russian gas. But the United States should not stop there.

For much of this century, Washington has pursued an unimaginative energy policy, focused on introducing American LNG into the Balkan energy mix. Even if this LNG remains expensive (and in any case more expensive than Russian gas), it would not resolve the region’s trilemma, which is: to achieve new energy and climate objectives; have continuous access to energy; and have energy at an affordable price. Southeast Europe (including Bulgaria, Greece and Romania) is characterized not only by low energy production and consumption, but also by high levels of energy poverty. A significant number of households – up to 40 percent, according to some estimates – are unable to heat their homes due to a combination of low income, low energy efficiency and high prices. Some countries in the region have not completed the liberalization of their energy markets; this can increase the cost of energy. Each government will need to decide how to balance the new green technologies it implements to reduce emissions while maintaining public support. They should not be left alone in this process.

Instead of the United States focusing heavily on LNG as it has over the past decade, a more nuanced and diverse form of American support for the region could make a huge difference. The rising cost of coal, combined with energy efficiency measures and the increasingly affordable costs of renewable energy, means more jobs and investment can be created by supporting the energy transition. The region has a well-developed electricity grid, which can be used to transmit energy from renewable sources. Helping to modernize the region’s industries based on alternative energy sources while implementing the latest environmental standards would be a good investment of European and American taxpayers’ money. A regional approach based on interconnectivity would lead to cross-border cooperation and competition for funds, thereby alleviating limitations on the administrative capacity of candidate countries to apply for and use EU funds. Working with EU members will strengthen this capacity.

China

Apparently, China will dominate American foreign policy for the foreseeable future. The Western Balkans have for several years been an area where China has asserted itself as a world power. The Chinese approach has been multifaceted, ranging from the implementation of its Belt and Road initiative, to investment in the region’s banks, to the development of relations with various non-state actors, to expand China’s influence not only in the political and economic sphere, but also in society in general. China, Russia, and to some extent Turkey have stepped in to fill the void left by a cautious, uncertain Europe and weak U.S. global leadership. Working together to counter China in the Balkans would also help reinvigorate transatlantic relations. For this to become a reality, it will not be enough to get Western Balkan countries to agree to reject Huawei’s role in their national communications networks. Countries like Montenegro would need significant financial support in the event of Chinese debt default. The World Bank predicts that by the end of 2020, Montenegro’s GDP likely decreased by 12.4 percent and public debt reached 93 percent of GDP. The Chinese hold 25 percent of Montenegrin public debt.

While the Western Balkans may not be at the top of the new US administration’s agenda, Washington can still play a major role in helping the EU make progress in these key policy areas. The longer-term play would be to help countries modernize their economies, energy and climate policies, and improve their democracies – something the United States has been instrumental in in the past and why it is supporting still the hopes and expectations of many people. in the Balkans.