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The countries of the Western Balkans – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Kosovo and Montenegro and Serbia – have aspired to join the European Union for years. The EU has provided each of these six countries with a prospect of EU membership, and their possible membership is a frequent topic of discussion and debate in Brussels. Although the EU continues to express its intention to eventually integrate the Western Balkans into the union, China’s overall infrastructure strategy, particularly the controversial Belt and Road Initiative ( BIS), could harm the enlargement process.
At first glance, China may seem foreign to the EU enlargement process. However, China has been repeatedly accused of using billions of dollars from the BRI as a means to influence other countries, including many European countries. Given these accusations that China is using predatory lending on BRI projects to influence decision-making in other countries, Chinese infrastructure projects in the Western Balkans are a potential source of concern within the EU. While some EU countries are already accused of taking pro-China positions due to BRI plans, the EU may not want to take the risk of adding more countries, which could create more divisions on how to approach Sino-European relations.
The BRI and Debt Trap Diplomacy
As mentioned above, China has faced repeated allegations that it has used the BRI to offer loans that it knows countries will not be able to repay. When countries eventually default on their loans, China often takes control of a key part of a country’s infrastructure. Additionally, governments that incur debt to China through these allegedly predatory loans feel pressured to adopt a more pro-China stance. This strategy is known as debt trap diplomacy.
Although some experts believe that debt trap diplomacy is not real and simply relies on fear of China’s growing global influence, there are many examples of countries failing to respect what they consider such as unfair loans and countries with BRI projects that are reluctant to criticize Beijing.
Tanzanian President John Magufuli has called the loans his country received for BRI projects “exploitative and clumsy.” Magufuli said Chinese contractors working on the projects in Tanzania wanted to take the land and also be compensated for the project. Likewise, according to The maritime executiveMalaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad called the country’s $20 billion infrastructure deals with China “unequal treaties” and feared the projects could leave Malaysia in debt to China.
China’s use of the BRI to exert its influence is also visible in various European countries, including Austria. In Greece, for example, the Chinese shipping company Cosco has invested hundreds of millions of euros to renovate and develop the Greek port of Piraeus under the BRI. In 2008, Cosco acquired the operating rights to the port, and eight years later it purchased the majority of shares in the port operator, the Piraeus Port Authority. Then, in 2017, Greece vetoed an EU attempt to condemn China’s human rights record at the United Nations.
Hungary has also benefited from significant investments from Chinese companies through the BRI, including €1.8 billion for the Budapest-Belgrade railway project. Like Greece, Hungary has been reluctant to criticize China and has prevented the EU from reaching the consensus needed to condemn China for its alleged human rights violations, including the torture of human rights lawyers. ‘man. Hungary and Greece also opposed a common EU position on the South China Sea conflict in 2016.
Even though Austria has not benefited from massive Chinese investments in infrastructure projects like in Greece and Hungary, the Alpine republic has become very dependent on China for various technologies. A report The European Think Tank on China (ETNC) notes a particular dependence on China for digital technologies, notably 5G technology. Vindobona.org has also recently drawn attention to the legal, policy and infrastructural security gaps that exist in Austria with regard to its critical digital infrastructure and, in particular, with regard to its choice of 5G network providers. Despite concerns from other EU countries, the UK and the US over China’s 5G technology, Austria, Hungary and Greece have pushed back against efforts to ban Huawei’s 5G in the EU.
Although it is difficult to prove with certainty that countries benefiting from Chinese investment projects feel pressure to adopt policies more favorable to China, we can nevertheless see a correlation between the two. This correlation could prove problematic for the EU’s enlargement to the Western Balkans due to China’s concerted efforts to invest heavily in these countries’ infrastructure.
China and the Western Balkans
Over the past decade, China has increased its investments in the Western Balkans and strengthened its cooperation with these countries through the China-CEEC Agreement and the BRI. According to the Vienna Institute for Humanitiesthere are currently more than 122 Chinese projects in the Western Balkans, worth around €30 billion.
With the exception of Kosovo, which China does not recognize as a country, all Western Balkan countries have negotiated deals on infrastructure projects with China. THE Balkan Investigative Reporting Network’s “China in the Balkans” Project shows that Serbia is by far the biggest beneficiary of Chinese investment, with 61 projects worth almost 19 billion euros. These include projects such as the Belgrade Metro, the Mihajlo Pupin Bridge, the Budapest-Belgrade railway line and the harmful Kostolac mine.
The eight Albanian projects have an estimated value of almost 650 million euros and include Tirana International Airport. North Macedonia has 15 other projects worth more than 650 million euros, Bosnia and Herzegovina has 29 projects worth almost 5.3 billion euros and Montenegro has 9 projects worth value greater than 2.4 billion euros. These numerous projects include airports, bridges, railways, mines and much more.
Notably, Montenegro has already experienced the type of predatory lending from China described above. The Bar-Boljare highway, which connects the port of Bar in the Adriatic Sea to Serbia, has left Montenegro heavily in debt to China. According to the Institute of Human Sciences, it is the most expensive highway in the world at 20 million dollars per kilometer, and the first section alone costs a billion dollars. Thanks to this project, Montenegro’s sovereign debt increased to 103% of the country’s gross domestic product. The Montenegrin government even asked the EU to help refinance the loan, which the EU refused.
Besides possible debt trap diplomacy, Chinese infrastructure projects in the Western Balkans also raise environmental and corruption concerns. For example, Serbia continues to build coal-fired power plants financed by China, which does not meet the EU’s climate and environmental goals. Additionally, the lack of competition and transparency regarding project contracts increases the risk of corruption. In fact, former North Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and three ministers were charged with corruption in connection with the awarding of road contracts.
Given the considerable sums that China has invested in infrastructure projects in the Western Balkans and the fact that one of these projects has already put Montenegro heavily in debt to China, it is not unreasonable to imagine that some of the other loans will be almost impossible for the country. country to be reimbursed.
Combined with environmental concerns and corruption, this increased risk of Western Balkan countries being subject to Beijing’s influence could ultimately harm EU enlargement, as the EU is unlikely to want to dealing with a larger number of member states, preventing a unified position on this increasingly important subject. EU-China relations.
Conclusion
The examples discussed provide ample evidence of the detrimental effects of China’s authoritarian global infrastructure strategy, including the critical digital infrastructure strategy, on the advancement of the European integration process.
We must resist the People’s Republic of China’s practices that promote corruption, support harmful business and investment practices, ignore and threaten data protection, intellectual property rights, human rights, cybersecurity, international law and other international standards of conduct.
Just as Europe is currently painfully experiencing its dependence on Russian gas and oil, maintaining European autonomy in the key technologies of the future, the defense industry, telecommunications infrastructure, AI and IoT is crucial for the evolution of the EU.
Staunch pro-European politicians have for some time questioned China’s role in domestic and intra-European development issues, citing concerns about respect for Western democratic values, human rights, protection data and cybersecurity.
European Think Tank on China (ETNC)
Permanent Mission of China to the United Nations in Vienna
Institute of Human Sciences (IWM)
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