The first Sarajevo Security Conference (SCC) is scheduled to take place October 15-17, organized by the Strategic Analysis Initiative (SAI). The event will bring together high-level speakers, including national and international government officials, business leaders, renowned academics and renowned journalists. During this two-day conference, an in-depth review of the most pressing security challenges facing the region will be conducted.
Regarding the geopolitical dynamics in the Western Balkans, the influence of the war in Ukraine on the EU perspective on the region and the role of third-party external actors in shaping the security landscape, we discussed with Hikmet Karčićco-founder and director of SAI.
European Western Balkans: The Sarajevo Security Conference is being held for the first time this year in a complex security context for the region and beyond. What topics will be covered during the two-day conference?
Hikmet Karcic: The Sarajevo Security Conference will cover a wide range of security topics that concern not only Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region, but also general security issues in Europe.
The ongoing war in Ukraine will of course be approached from a security perspective and will be brought up in other discussions such as transatlantic security, the current geopolitical landscape, as well as EU and NATO integration . Other discussions will focus on cybersecurity, religious and cultural geopolitics in the Balkans, as well as foreign influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
ISF: What is the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine on the security situation in the Western Balkans? Is the region more unstable than before?
Hong Kong: Russian aggression has created instability in many countries around the world, but particularly in Europe. It is an understatement to say that Bosnia and Herzegovina is not immune from this fact, having previously experienced political instability due to destabilizing factors on the part of the Republika Srpska entity, which previously concluded various meetings and agreements with Russian officials.
After the start of the war in Ukraine, the political scene became even more turbulent, with more secession rhetoric, undemocratic legislation, political boycotts, and contempt for national and international institutions and representatives. Direct political support for Russia’s aggression is more than evident among Serbian leaders in Republika Srpska, implying many elements that could lead to instability.
ISF: Has the war in Ukraine changed, and to what extent, the perception of the EU and NATO towards the region?
Hong Kong: As we have seen in recent days, additional NATO troops have been sent to Kosovo to support the KFOR mission. Additional EUFOR troops have also been deployed to Bosnia and Herzegovina following the war in Ukraine, showing that the Balkans are considered one of the most vulnerable regions on the continent.
Granting Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as other states, the status of EU candidate country is also a sign that this region was neglected in the geopolitical sense before the war in Ukraine. It is fair to say that the Balkan region has been more visible on the EU and NATO radar since the war in Ukraine.
ISF: How do you assess the influence of third parties (Russia, China and Turkey) in the region today?
Hong Kong: Bosnia and Herzegovina is a small, young country compared to major European countries. It depends on support, cooperation and trade with other states. Most of the country’s population favors its path to the EU, and most of the Bosnian and Herzegovinian diaspora live in Western democracies such as Germany, the United States and Scandinavia.
However, due to its complex political system which allows for an ethnic veto at higher levels of government, especially since one of the entities that make up the upper levels of government, Republika Srpska, is entirely dominated by an elite politics operating in an undemocratic manner under the guise of In the national interest of the majority population of this entity, the influence of third parties is possible through their support for a specific ethnic group.
Not all foreign influences are aimed at deepening these ethnic lines – Turkey, for example, has taken a fair and balanced approach, communicating with state institutions and officials. Russia, on the other hand, has clearly expressed its support for the representatives of the RS entity. I believe the same is true when we talk about the Balkans in general.
ISF: For some time now, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, we have seen serious threats to peace and stability. To what extent are the EU and NATO succeeding in easing tensions in this part of Europe?
Hong Kong: When it comes to Kosovo, many question marks remain over the nature of the organized Serb group that murdered a Kosovo police officer in the terrorist attack. As more evidence is presented, this becomes clearer.
The EU has not yet formally agreed on a common position on this event, and its response will be crucial in determining future events in the region. NATO has sent additional forces to the KFOR mission, showing that it takes these issues seriously. The appeasement of aggressive and radical policies will certainly open the floodgates to further incidents and instability in the region.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the EU must also take a much stronger stance against disruptive, secessionist, radical and unconstitutional actors in the country. Although the majority of EU states recognize this problem, current rules prevent concrete action from being taken.
NATO has a presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but clearer and more direct messages of its commitment and mandate to peace and stability in the country are always more than welcome – especially in this political climate .
ISF: Cybersecurity is increasingly discussed in the region. In the previous period, we saw that countries like Albania and Montenegro were the targets of these attacks. To what extent is the region vulnerable in this area and what could be the responses to such threats?
Hong Kong: Cybersecurity is an overlooked aspect of security across the region and deserves more attention and dedicated work. In a world where data is more valuable and available than ever, the region needs an upgrade to its cybersecurity policies and practices.
This would include training staff, upgrading technology, as well as creating strategies in case of security breaches along these lines.
