Italy may have helped avoid a new crisis between Serbia and its former province of Kosovo, but the risk of a resurgence – with the possible involvement of NATO troops – remains.
The Italian Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense visited the two capitals unannounced on November 22. joint ministerial visit to defuse tensions over car license plates, a seemingly innocuous issue that has brought neighbors to the brink of armed conflict.
The next day, the high representative of the European Union (EU) for foreign policy, Josep Borrel, announcement that the two countries had reached an agreement on the implementation of “measures aimed at avoiding further escalation and fully focusing on the proposed normalization of their relations”. Although negotiated by the EU, this agreement was the result of a multilateral initiative, with Italy and the WE playing a key role. The deal essentially freezes the old car registration system.
This successful mediation has, and this is not the first time, reduced the risks of a real crisis. However, while exchanges of gunfire took place in the northern Kosovo city of Kosovar, Mitrovicë clearly show, the situation in the region remains volatile and the risk of escalation is high, with the EU saying it is ready strengthen its EULEX police mission if necessary. After a series of armed attacks against European and Kosovar police officers, the decision of the Kosovar authorities to postpone the administrative elections in April was welcomed by several EU countries.
Why does Italy care? Partly because the Western Balkans are close and what happens there can have repercussions, and partly because Italy has long been committed to stabilizing the region. Italian troops arrived with the NATO force in 1999 and are still present there. The current Italian contingent is the largest within K-FOR With more than 700 troops, Italian General Angelo Michele Ristuccia is its commander, becoming the 13th Italian commander, and the country also provides riflemen. If the fighting became serious, the Italians would immediately be on the front lines.
The government therefore understands the risks. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who is well versed in the intricacies of regional diplomacy and is personally known to many key figures in the region from his years in Brussels, kept up the pressure on Belgrade and Pristina by emphasizing the urgency of “complete normalization”. during a later session phone call with both sides. Italy’s diplomatic activism is significant, barely a month after the new government was installed, and highlights the desire for a more active foreign policy with allies and regional states.
Speaking after the recent EU-Western Balkans meeting In Tirana, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni highlighted both the importance of the region for Italian foreign policy and the untapped potential that deeper economic cooperation could offer to both sides of the Adriatic Sea.
Historically, relations between Italy and the Balkans have rarely been calm, and insecurity near its borders would have significant economic repercussions for Italy – trade relations with Balkan states are estimated at 16 billion euros ($17 billion) and growing, while posing obvious political problems.
There are also concerns about the influence of Russia and China, keen to expand their influence in the Western Balkans, often at the expense of European countries.
The Kremlin retains substantial influence through consolidated cultural and religious ties with Slavic and Orthodox Christian communities, notably in Serbia, where it feeds It exploits anti-Western sentiment and capitalizes on Serb resentment over the 1999 NATO intervention that led to the creation of Kosovo as an independent state.
For example, Vladimir Putin hosted Milorad Dodik, the separatist leader of Republika Srpska, one of the two federal regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, confirmed in September the Kremlin’s desire to shape local politics by supporting friendly leaders and even training controversial paramilitary formations. Russian strategy also includes more substantial tools such as energy diplomacy. In May, Serbia reached a agreement on a three-year gas supply with the Russian Gazprom. The company is also the largest shareholder in Serbian national oil company NIS, and its energy interests are often used as a lever for political influence.
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Some Serbian politicians have even claimed that ties to the Russian mercenary company Wagner could help the country in some sense. possible war with Kosovoat least according to Serbian ultranationalist Damjan Knezevic after visiting the group’s new headquarters in Russia.
Nevertheless, Russia had to readjust its approach in the Balkans after its expanded war of aggression against Ukraine. The impact of unprecedented Western sanctions against Russian interests in Europe and elsewhere has encouraged it to deploy proven hybrid approaches aimed at feed ethnoreligious tensions, spread disinformation against the EU and NATO, and exploiting political vulnerabilities to weaken the West. This non-linear and opportunistic strategy aims to destabilize the region and disrupt the European integration process, of which Italy is one of the most enthusiastic supporters.
As Russia fuels instability, China fears it. Tensions and insecurity hinder his favorites operating mode, mainly based on a discreet policy of economic cooperation, loans and infrastructure investments. In recent years, China has made significant advances in the region, notably in Serbia and Montenegro, pour private and public funds into logistics and infrastructure megaprojects as part of its ambitious Belt and Road initiative.
According to the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, Chinese investments in 136 projects across the region having totalized more than 32 billion euros since 2009. At the same time, China launched a massive information campaign to promote its image and reputation, achieving the best results in countries like Serbia and North Macedonia, where its economic influence was already significant. Perhaps more worryingly, China is also expanding its military influence through arms sales. It is now a key arms supplier to Serbia, selling CH-92A combat drones in 2020 and, more recently, the FK-3 medium-lift aircraft. air defense system.
In this context, the EU has recently stepped up its efforts to strengthen cooperation with Western Balkan states, including Serbia, and during the last official summit with the six countries in Tirana, EU leaders reaffirmed “a total and unequivocal commitment to the prospect of Western Balkans joining the EU”, promising an acceleration of the accession process. For its part, Italy can use its diplomatic credentials and economic influence to support this project by launching initiatives on the ground aimed at supporting state reforms and promoting the rule of law.
The last thing Italy wants, and the last thing the Western Balkans needs, is another crisis. Regardless of the consequences for the people of the region, leaving the area free of Russian malign activity is dangerous. A surge in violence could distract the West at a time when it is focused on supporting Ukraine. While Italy’s work to prevent this situation is essential, the country must remain closely focused on easing tensions.
Federico Borsari is a Leonardo Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), a NATO 2030 Global Fellow and a visiting scholar at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). His main research interests include security and defense dynamics, transatlantic security relations, and the impact of new technologies on warfare.
Dario Cristiani is a senior fellow at the US German Marshall Fund, based in Washington, DC, where he works on Italian foreign policy, the Mediterranean and global politics.
At the edge of Europe is CEPA’s online journal covering critical foreign policy topics in Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or of the Center for European Policy Analysis.
