The rapid approval of the candidate country status of Ukraine and Moldova has revived the question of EU membership for the Western Balkans. It has been 20 years since the Thessaloniki Declaration promised a European perspective for the region, with limited progress – the latest being Bosnia and Herzegovina achieving candidate status in December 2022. In recent months, the region has received considerable high-level attention. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the Western Balkans in October; Last week, EU leaders gathered for another summit with their Western Balkan counterparts. These are all symbolic acts which demonstrate our commitment to the future of the region within the EU. However, the latest enlargement progress reports from the European Commission show little progress by these candidate countries on much-needed reforms. As the European Council gives the green light to accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova, the EU continues to struggle to find ways to maintain accession momentum in the Western Balkans.
All is calm on the Western Balkans front
In November, the European Commission published its latest enlargement “package”: individual reports assessing the progress of candidate countries for EU membership. The six Western Balkan countries are all at different stages of the (pre)accession process. What they have in common is slow progress on reforms. The most “advanced” countries in this process, Montenegro and Serbia, have not managed, for several years, to temporarily close new chapters. THE accusations Cases of electoral fraud in Serbia’s December 17 snap elections – the second such elections since April 2022 – demonstrate its evolving path to EU membership. Likewise, Montenegro’s several years of domestic political instability have made progress difficult. However, the newly formed government friends EU membership is at the top of her foreign policy priorities, returning some optimism about Montenegro’s continuation, as President von der Leyen said: be “the Western Balkan country furthest along the path to EU membership. »
When it comes to Albania and North Macedonia – again borrowing the European Commission’s assessment scale – “limited to some progress” best describes the situation. The two countries recently concluded selection meetings, a step forward on their accession path. However, the next step, the opening and closing of chapters, is a very technical and arduous process, often affected by the internal dynamics of the European Council. Concrete example: North Macedonia needs to once again amend its constitution to recognize the Bulgarian minority in order to move on to the next phase of negotiations.
The apparent increase in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s membership in the Commission was considered a success. But the devil is in the details. The opening of negotiations is conditional on the achievement of 14 key 2019 priorities, with limited progress indicated in the latest report. The group of Friends of the Western Balkans argued the recommendation and approval of the European Council to open negotiations would constitute a vital political signal for Bosnia’s future in the EU. However, at its December summit, the European Council approved The Commission’s position: Another review of Bosnia’s progress is planned for March 2024. Significant progress in such a short time is unfortunately wishful thinking, especially given the current domestic political polarization. Kosovo remains an aspiring candidate country and is in the most precarious position, as it remains unrecognized by five EU member states. Although significant electoral and judicial reforms have been adopted, recent tensions in northern Kosovo which peaked during the attack on Banjska on September 24, 2023 blocked progress in the normalization of relations with Serbia, essential for moving forward on the path to the EU.
How does the EU intend to revive the process?
The lack of progress in bringing the Western Balkans closer to the EU has led to growing calls for a different, more proactive approach. In her speech at the GLOBSEC Forum in Bratislava in May 2023, President von der Leyen declared that the EU has finally realized that “it is not enough to wait for countries to come closer to the EU, the EU must also take responsibility for bringing these countries closer”. She announced a new Growth plan for the Western Balkansin addition to what already exists Economic and investment plan from 2020. At the October Berlin Process meeting in Tirana, Albania, von der Leyen added delimited the structure and objective of the plan. The four-pillar plan envisages strengthening integration into the single market and within a common regional market, as well as further encouraging fundamental reforms through increased financial assistance (2 million euros in grants and 4 million euros in loans).
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the GLOBSEC 2023 Forum in Bratislava, May 31, 2023.
Although it is currently only a proposal, the Commission argues the growth plan is the way to advance the enlargement dynamic in the Western Balkans. The planned gradual integration into the single market and the creation of a fully functioning regional market would be key drivers of growth, as well as fundamental reforms. This would translate into concrete results of European integration for citizens – which is essential as EU membership becomes less and less feasible in the eyes of many residents of the Western Balkans. Furthermore, “by encouraging countries to accelerate the adoption and implementation of the acquis” this would also speed up the accession process itself.
Although a welcome additional tool, the growth plan alone cannot be a force for change. The four pillars are all closely linked, meaning that access to the single market depends on the implementation of fundamental reforms, as well as the regional common market (RCM). In theory, such conditionality makes sense, as it encourages regional cooperation and the acceleration of EU-related reforms. However, after years of ambiguity and broken commitments, it is not surprising that regional leaders have not welcomed more conditionalities. The Prime Minister of North Macedonia, Bujar Osmani, declared that 6 billion euros for 6 countries is not enough to resolve the central problem of integration: the ever-increasing socio-economic convergence gap. The rather lukewarm responses to the plan therefore raise questions about its potential to encourage reforms and reinvigorate the accession process in the region.
The EU wants you
On December 13, the day before the European Council summit, EU leaders met their counterparts from the Western Balkans. The meeting sought to reassure leaders that enlargement momentum is alive and well in the Western Balkans, while trying to fend off allegations of “favoritism” towards eastern partners – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia . After Bosnia and Herzegovina did not receive a direct recommendation from the Commission on opening accession negotiations, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg warned that the EU cannot “look at some candidates with rose-colored glasses while scrutinizing others”. This is part of a in progress debate on the perceived unequal treatment of the candidate countries of the Western Balkans compared to Ukraine and Moldova. According to According to Schallenberg, if the EU favors Ukraine over the Western Balkans, it could result in a “geostrategic disaster.”
The EU-Western Balkans summit took place without much fanfare or media attention, compared to the subsequent European Council meeting which saw major progress announced for Ukraine and Moldova on the path to the EU. The same goes for adoptees. Brussels Declarationseveral parts of the text being almost a carbon copy of that of last year. Tirana Declaration. Its importance, however, lies in anchoring the role of progressive integration aimed at bringing the region closer to the EU – which was also subsequently confirmed in the Council conclusions. All the eggs necessary for the progressive integration of the Western Balkans are currently in one basket: the growth plan. However, the statement also calls for the EU to “explore additional measures to further advance progressive integration”. With the Commission’s mandate ending in June 2024, it is difficult to see significant progress from it in the near future. However, Member States, such as France, Germany, PortugalAnd Friends of the Western Balkans group, all presented proposals on ways to advance progressive integration. The ball is therefore in the court of the Belgian Presidency to maintain this political momentum.
The EU has often blamed the lack of progress on the rigorous merit-based process and a lack of “strong political determination” from Western Balkan leaders to pass difficult reforms. However, progress on enlargement has often been stalled due to the EU’s lack of will to move forward. There is no doubt that Western Balkan countries must do their part to advance reforms, which some may not do. There is no fast-track option for EU membership. But years of enlargement fatigue have left their mark on the credibility of the enlargement process. The EU must therefore work to mitigate the effects of its internal disunity, as well as to promote progressive integration. Only in this way will the EU be able to rebuild the necessary credibility of the process, in which progress on reform will be rewarded, and, hopefully, inject the much-needed energy into integration of the Western Balkans into the EU.