The recent elections to Czech Republic, LatviaAnd Estonia highlighted a trend in which pro-Russian candidates and parties perform poorly, with voters instead rewarding those who advocate continued support for Ukraine, even as they face the severe economic consequences of the war. Now comes Montenegro, which votes for its next president on March 19, a vote that, among other issues, offers a litmus test of Russia’s malign influence in the region and the effectiveness of U.S. and of the EU to propose an alternative path. With seven candidates vying for president in the first round and – assuming none gets 50% of the vote – a runoff likely on April 2, the question is whether Montenegro will continue this trend or move closer to the Moscow’s orbit remains very uncertain.
With a population of just over six hundred thousand, Montenegro plays a crucial role in maintaining stability in the Western Balkans and is a key factor in securing full NATO control of the Adriatic coast. The country’s accession to NATO in 2017 strengthened security and stability in the region and signaled to other Western Balkan countries that NATO’s door remained open to them. But beyond that, NATO membership also indicates that Montenegro is ready and able to implement the necessary reforms that would lead to membership in the European Union (EU).
Although the country has long enjoyed regional leadership status in terms of EU membership, events of the past two years have cast doubt on this prospect. Last summer, the government signed a controversial real estate deal with the Serbian Orthodox Church, which fully recognize the independence of Montenegro from Serbia or an autocephalous Montenegrin Orthodox Church, triggering a long period of ethnic tensions and political instability. This resulted in Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic losing a vote of no confidence and the Constitutional Court being blocked.
Relations with the Serbian Orthodox Church have long divided Montenegro into two camps: one that seeks close ties between state and church and the other that advocates greater distance based on the assertion according to which the Church embodies continued Serbian influence. As a result, Montenegro’s prospects for EU membership now appear dim, the European Commission express concern in its annual assessment of Montenegro’s progress towards the membership criteria.
Russian interference in the upcoming elections is also of great concern. The Kremlin is no stranger to the militarization of cultural and religious ties in Montenegro. In 2019, fourteen people, including two suspected Russian intelligence agents, were convicted of attempting to overthrow the Podgorica government and prevent the country from joining NATO.
The US Department of State has warned expected Russian attempts to stoke ethnic tensions ahead of the elections. Montenegro’s domestic sympathy for Russian goals could provide an opportunity for Russian interference, as some candidates are openly pro-Russian and seek to distance Montenegro from NATO and the European Union. Montenegro thus risks becoming a new victim of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fight against the West.
Although the role of Montenegrin president is primarily ceremonial, the office has the power to accept or reject candidates for prime minister. The current president, Milo Djukanovic, has for example used this power to block a candidate in the last yeardemanding instead that a new prime minister be chosen in new parliamentary elections, an earlier decision encouraged by American officials break the political impasse and refocus on the implementation of key reforms. It was necessary to wait for the Prime Minister-designate’s three-month constitutional review. the deadline to form a government has expiredbut Djukanovic dissolved parliament on Thursday and called for extraordinary elections as early as May or June.
Main candidates for the presidency of Montenegro:
- Milo Djukanovic is the incumbent president who has served as Prime Minister of Montenegro six times and as President of the country twice. He is the longest-serving European leader. Djukanovic and his party are pro-European, but he has been linked to a series of corruption scandals.
- Andrija Mandicone of Djukanovic’s main challengers, is a leader of the Democratic Front, a pro-Russian and pro-Serb party with close ties to Belgrade.
- Aleksa Bečić comes from the Democratic Montenegro party. He considers himself a civic politician, but his and his party’s policies are widely seen as pro-Serb.
- Jakov Milatovic, a political newcomer from the Europe Now party, is trying to prove his pro-European credentials. He previously served as economy minister under a government with close ties to the Serbian Orthodox Church.
- The other three candidates do not appear to have a realistic chance of reaching a second round.
These high-stakes elections will help determine whether Montenegro and the region will fall further under Russian influence or whether the prospect of EU membership provides a strong enough incentive for voters to remain committed to a European perspective. The international community should closely monitor Montenegro to see whether Russian influence is growing in the Western Balkans or whether an encouraging political trend will continue.
Luka Ignac is a program assistant at the Europe Center of the Atlantic Council.
Kevin Morris is an international young professional with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
Further reading
Image: A man on a bicycle passes a pre-election billboard for incumbent President Milo Djukanovic in Podgorica, Montenegro.