During her visit to Kosovo this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that while there is still work to be done, Kosovo is making steady progress in EU reforms.
“Let me reassure you that the EU is fully committed to a future with the six Western Balkan countries within our European Union,” von der Leyen said.
She did not mention the exact date, but the year 2030 has already become a regular feature of discussions on the future of enlargement in the Western Balkans, since European Council President Charles Michel I mentioned it end of August and the report of the German-French working group I reiterated it in September. On this date, according to these proposals, the EU and the candidates should prepare for the admission of new states.
Kosovo remains the country furthest from joining the Western Balkans, at least according to the formal stages of the process. It officially submitted its application for full EU membership last December. Following the EU’s decision to grant candidate status to Bosnia and Herzegovina the same month, Kosovo remains the only country in the Western Balkans not to be an official candidate.
The dominant issue in Kosovo’s EU accession process remains its relations with Serbia, contributing to the fact that five EU member states have still not recognized its independence. The recent streak of tensions that culminated with the Banjska attack in September, as well as Serbia’s snap elections scheduled for December, have made the near future of EU-mediated dialogue uncertain.
However, even without taking into consideration the dialogue with Belgrade, Kosovo will have to implement a wide range of reforms to have the possibility of joining the EU. To what extent can we achieve this objective by 2030?
According to the words of Prime Minister Albin Kurti, book At the 10th meeting of the EU-Kosovo Parliamentary Stabilization and Association Committee last March, the country was ready to seriously embark on the path to meeting EU criteria.
“For more than seven years, Kosovo has officially aligned its legislation with the EU acquis and strengthened its European institutional capacities… All the… works mentioned, and much more, give us a solid foundation and responsible hope for the Candidate Status Questionnaire,” the Prime Minister said, referring to the questionnaire that a potential candidate must complete before the official decision on their status is made.
Kurti’s remarks were made before the 2030 target was proposed by Charles Michel. Following this announcement, members of the government, including Kurti and Deputy Prime Minister Besnik Bislimi, stressed their appreciation for this date, but were not explicit about Kosovo’s chances of accessing the EU from here there.
Asked about these chances, Visar Xhambaziproject manager and editor-in-chief of Sbunker, declares for European Western Balkans that the 2030 European integration objective does not encompass all countries in the same way.
“In reality, Montenegro and Moldova, as well as North Macedonia, seem to be the most likely candidates for successful integration into the EU,” believes Xhambazi.
According to him, Kosovo continues to grapple with significant socio-economic and political challenges that hamper its progress towards European integration.
“Despite some incremental improvements, the European Union Country Report on Kosovo still considers Kosovo to be at an early stage in terms of judicial reform and anti-corruption efforts. These factors are essential to pave the way for Kosovo’s deeper integration into the EU,” said Xhambazi.
The European Commission’s new annual reports on candidate countries are expected to be published next week. Last year, Kosovo was indeed assessed as being at an early stage of a well-functioning justice system and the fight against corruption.
“Justice reform must be addressed first and foremost by improving the implementation of existing tools to safeguard the integrity, independence and efficiency of the judicial system,” says the 2022 European Commission report.
When it comes to corruption, the main problem remains the lack of implementation of existing legislation, the Commission said.
2030 objective in Serbia: the objective is realistic, but will depend on political will
Other political criteria, notably democracy and freedom of expression, received somewhat more positive assessments in the report. Kosovo’s recent progress in international democracy and media freedom indices, such as Freedom House and the World Press Freedom Index, has often been highlighted by the country’s leaders. However, it remains to be seen how certain recent controversies, notably that on the Licence for Klan Kosova TV, will be reflected in this year’s reports.
However, the political criteria for membership are not the only important condition. The EU legal acts that each candidate country must adopt are divided into more than 30 chapters, and Kosovo still has a long way to go in this area.
“In terms of readiness, Kosovo is still between an early stage and a certain level of readiness for EU membership. Of the 31 chapters, Kosovo is at an early stage of preparation in 11 of them, has some level of preparation in 15 chapters and is moderately prepared in five chapters,” says Ramadan Ilaziresearch manager at the Kosovo Center for Security Studies, for our portal.
How does this level of preparedness compare to the rest of the countries? According to the calculation made earlier this year by the European Stability Initiative, based on the 2022 reports of the European Commission, Kosovo’s level of readiness for EU membership on a scale of 0 to 4 is 0.9. Montenegro has the highest readiness level with 2.1, while Serbia and North Macedonia are tied for second place with 2.0.
Kosovo is ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova, each with a score of 0.7, and just behind Georgia, another potential candidate country, with a score of 1.1.
Nevertheless, despite the general level of preparation, Ramadan Ilazi emphasizes that the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement on the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia remains the crucial element of Kosovo’s path to accession to the EU.
“It is a sine qua condition not only for turning a new page in EU-Kosovo relations, but also for consolidating regional stability and fostering regional cooperation and good neighborly relations on the path to an EU for all. Western Balkan countries,” Ilazi said.
Visar EU member states and the lack of a final settlement with Serbia.
“Among all the Western Balkan countries, Kosovo is the one that is going through the most difficult path on the path to European integration,” he concludes.