- By Steve Rosenberg
- Publisher Russia
It’s tempting to think of Vladimir Putin as a James Bond-style villain sitting in front of a giant control panel in a mountain hideout, wreaking havoc around the world.
He presses a button and there is turmoil in the Balkans.
He supports another and the Middle East explodes.
It’s tempting…but probably inaccurate. This exaggerates the Kremlin leader’s global influence.
Yes, Russia has ties to Hamas and has become a close ally of Iran. According to the United States, Moscow and Tehran now have a full defense partnership.
But this does not mean that Moscow was directly involved in or had knowledge of Hamas’s attack on Israel.
“We don’t think Russia is involved in any way,” Israel’s ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Ben Zvi, told the Kommersant newspaper this week, adding that it was “completely absurd ” to suggest that there was a link between Russia and the atrocities committed by Israel. Hamas in Israel.
“I have not seen any evidence of direct Russian supply of weapons to Hamas, nor of Russian military training of Hamas members,” says Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based Russia and Middle East expert at the James Center. Martin for non-proliferation studies.
“It is true that Russia has long-standing relations with Hamas. Russia has never declared Hamas a terrorist organization. Hamas delegations were in Moscow last year and this year.
“But I do not infer that there was massive military support. Although we know that Russian-made systems entered the Gaza Strip, probably via Sinai (in Egypt) and with the aid of Iran.”
In other words, President Putin did not press a button marked “war in the Middle East.”
But is he ready to take advantage of it?
Absolutely. And here’s how.
Distraction from Ukraine
As renewed violence in the Middle East dominates international news, Moscow is counting on Israel’s dramatic headlines to distract from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But it’s not just about changing the news cycle. Russian authorities also hope that due to the situation in the Middle East, some Western arms deliveries to Ukraine will be redirected to Israel.
“I think this crisis will directly influence the course of the special military operation (in Ukraine),” Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov told the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia.
“Ukraine’s sponsors will be distracted by the conflict in Israel. This does not mean that the West will abandon the Ukrainians. But the amount of military aid will decrease… and the course of the operation may turn sharply in favor ( of Russia).
Wishful thinking on the part of Russia? Very probably.
“We can and will stand with Israel, just as we stand with Ukraine,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a meeting of NATO defense ministers.
But a protracted conflict in the Middle East will test America’s ability to simultaneously support two allies in two separate wars.
Russia is trying to strengthen its role in the Middle East by presenting itself as a potential peacemaker.
It has played this role before, joining previous international efforts to end conflict in the region.
“Russia can and will play a role in resolving (the conflict),” said President Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “We maintain contacts with the parties to the conflict.”
During a visit to Moscow this week, the Iraqi prime minister called on President Putin to “announce an initiative for a real ceasefire” in the region.
Russia, peacemaker? It’s a hard sell.
After all, this is the country that launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor. After nearly 20 months, Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused death and destruction on a scale that has shocked the world.
Additionally, saying that you “can and will play a role” in achieving peace does not guarantee that those involved in the conflict will accept you as a mediator.
Russia says it will play a role in resolving the conflict
Moscow has long had an interest in the Middle East, with the Soviet Union adopting a pro-Arab stance while Israel forged close ties with the United States. For years, state anti-Semitism was a feature of Soviet life.
After the breakup of the Soviet empire, Russia’s relations with Israel improved, in part due to the influx of more than a million Jews into Israel from the former Soviet republics.
But more recently, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has moved closer to Israel’s enemies, particularly Iran, straining Russian-Israeli relations.
Denounce America
The Kremlin sees this as an opportunity to do what it already often does: blame America.
Since the Hamas attack on Israel, Vladimir Putin’s central message has been that “this is an example of the failure of American policy in the Middle East.”
This fits with Moscow’s general tendency to attack what it calls “American hegemony.”
And presenting America as the main culprit in the Middle East is a way for the Kremlin to strengthen Russia’s position in the region at Washington’s expense.
So far I have talked about the potential benefits for Russia from events in the Middle East. But there are also dangers.
“Carefully calibrated instability is what serves Russia best,” says Hanna Notte.
“If this crisis distracts attention from Ukraine – and there is a real risk, given Israel’s importance in the US domestic political context – yes, Russia could be a short-term beneficiary.”
But Russia would not benefit from a war that draws in the entire region, including Iran, which supplies arms and funding to Hamas, Ms. Notte said.
“Russia does not want a full-scale war between Israel and Iran. If things move in that direction and it becomes clear that America is siding hard with Israel, I think the Russia will have no choice but to drift more towards the Iranian side. I’m not sure they want that.
“I think Putin still values his ties with Israel. I don’t think Russian diplomacy wants to venture into a space where it has to choose sides. But the more this conflict escalates, the more pressure it might feel.”