Putin wants more land. The EU is rushing to get there first – POLITICO

Vladimir Putin’s hawkish land grab has pushed European Union leaders to draw up their own expansion plans. Steps are currently underway to bring up to eight new members to the 27-country bloc.

But the historic dynamic of enlargement carries its own risks for the EU.

Adding new states – potentially including the agricultural powerhouse of Ukraine – would open a Pandora’s box full of challenges. Radical internal reforms would be necessary, likely triggering years of toxic infighting among current EU members.

Despite the painful complexities of any enlargement process, Russian aggression has convinced some EU governments that they cannot afford to wait.

“Now is the time to be bold and change our approach to enlargement – ​​to clearly integrate all six Western Balkan countries, each of them, as well as Ukraine and Moldova, into our family” , Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg told POLITICO. .

“Enlargement is not a bureaucratic enterprise… It is about exporting and safeguarding a certain model of life of free and open Western democracies.”

Enlargement is expected to be a recurring theme in European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s annual State of the EU address on September 13. European affairs ministers from the bloc’s 27 capitals are also expected to discuss the issue at a meeting. in late October, according to two senior EU diplomats who remained anonymous to discuss confidential matters.

Above all, Germany and France seem to agree. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s candidacy earlier this year for an “enlarged” Europe as well as optimistic signals from Paris, where Europe Minister Laurence Boone told POLITICO that the EU should send a “coherent message” to candidate countries regarding membership of the union – notably to help them repel Russian influence campaigns.

Seven-year deadline

One question is timing. EU Council President Charles Michel has called for new members to be admitted to the European Union by 2030. French President Emmanuel Macron supports the idea of ​​expansion in stages, with countries acceding first to the single market before becoming full members of the EU.

Austria’s Schallenberg raised the possibility of allowing candidate countries to sit as observers on the EU’s Political and Security Committee (PSC), a Brussels body where foreign policy decisions are made. “Instead of just sending them an EU or common foreign security policy declaration and saying ‘sign it’, we are integrating them into our thinking, into our decision-making process,” he said.

The renewed push for a bigger Europe marks the first such expansion drive since the bloc accepted Croatia into its ranks in 2013. Talks of Turkey’s entry ended when the French President at the time, Nicolas Sarkozy, flatly said no to Ankara in 2011, putting the brakes on further enlargement. .

But if they are to achieve their ambitions, EU leaders will face serious growing pains. The debate is likely to be fierce between European capitals as officials weigh the suitability of candidate countries – concerns over corruption in Ukraine, for example, loom large. And then there is the nightmarish prospect of reforming the EU’s internal decision-making processes to accommodate a much larger bloc.

Barely had Michel set his target for 2030 when a spokesperson for the European Commission, responsible for assessing the suitability of candidate countries, poured cold water on such short notice. The EU accession process was purely “merit-based”, the spokesperson said. The Commission is expected to present progress reports on candidate countries later this year, although a senior EU diplomat said the presentation would likely be delayed due to increased scrutiny of Ukraine’s application, in particular.

Corruption

“We want to give a positive signal to Ukraine, but things like this propositionl give more power to the (Ukrainian) intelligence (services) The issue of corruption can send the wrong message,” said a Western European diplomat. At the same time, Ukraine was a “very corrupt country.”

Agricultural policy is the most obvious flashpoint in all future accession negotiations between Brussels and kyiv. Ukraine’s cheap grain exports could flood the EU and drown the bloc’s heavily subsidized farmers. Poland and several other EU countries have already closed their doors to Ukrainian grain exports, saying the move was aimed at protecting their farmers.

Internal reforms that the expansion would trigger include: overhauling the EU’s common agricultural policy, overhauling the bloc’s long-term budget, and rewriting its decision-making process to move toward greater reliance on so-called voting. qualified majority” in areas such as foreign policy. , where unanimity between capitals is currently required.

“What we see… is that the current framework, whether it is the budget, the policies or the decision-making procedures, is not adapted to a Europe made up of around thirty members,” he said. declared the Portuguese Minister for Europe, Tiago Antunes. “Sometimes it’s already very, very difficult, as you know, at 27.”

As always, politics is never far away. A major expansion of the EU would shift the bloc’s center of gravity eastward, potentially diluting the traditionally decisive influence of France and Germany on key decisions.

A group of European lawmakers is already drawing up wide-ranging plans to amend the treaty, got by POLITICO, which they believe would be necessary for enlargement.

A referendum, what do you think?

But changing the EU’s fundamental treaties is an arduous process that requires referendums in several countries. Appetite for this type of exercise is limited among EU diplomats, some of whom say reforms can be implemented under the bloc’s Lisbon Treaty. “In the Council, there is no majority for a modification of the treaty,” declared a European diplomat. “The Council’s legal service has been telling us for months now that the Lisbon Treaty is enlargement-proof.”

The debate over expansion is expected to intensify in the coming months, notably at the third meeting of the European Political Community of Countries outside the bloc, which is due to take place on October 5 in Spain. Michel plans to meet European leaders in small groups before the summit to gather their views on enlargement.

Despite the intense attention paid to Ukraine, smaller candidate countries are also flocking to the bloc’s doors.

Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani, whose country formally applied to join the EU last year, cautiously welcomed the renewed focus on enlargement. “We believe it is in everyone’s interest for all Western Balkan countries to join,” Osmani said.

But she added that countries were not willing to wait forever for the EU to make a decision. “It’s hard not to get impatient, especially when you do everything you’re asked to do and nothing happens,” she said.

Jakob Hanke Vela contributed reporting.