The numbers are shocking. Over the past three decades, due to mass emigration, Serbia has lost 9 percent of its citizens, North Macedonia 10 percent, Bosnia and Herzegovina 24 percent and Albania 37 percent. according to figures cited by EUObserver. Most of them are young, educated and qualified people who have decided to “vote with their feet”.
The pace and intensity of the problem places WB6 among the world’s top leaders in brain drain, with estimates that the region will lose between a quarter and half of its young talent over the coming decades. Given the current state of affairs, the extent of youth human capital already lost, and youth emigration trends, it is time for BM6 countries to stop thinking about how to keep young people back home and start working to attract them back, as I argue in a recent article for the German Marshall Fund.
The region’s democratization goes hand in hand with “Europeanization,” so the EU’s successes, including well-functioning welfare states, are on the minds of young people and citizens in general.
Massive repercussions
The most recent research shows that there is an increasingly blurred distinction between economic and non-economic push factors for youth emigration from WB6. Historically, if young people mainly left the region for higher salaries and better jobs, today they are increasingly leaving for better public services, in education, health care, governance or ‘environment. Of course, geographical proximity plays a major role, as do the ongoing EU accession processes and all they represent. Within the BM6, governments and reforms have been driven for decades by the dream of EU membership and a strong ideology lies behind this accession process. The region’s democratization goes hand in hand with “Europeanization,” so the EU’s successes, including well-functioning welfare states, are on the minds of young people and citizens in general. And remember: ultimately the most important “pull factor” is the EU’s liberal migration policy.
The repercussions of the youth brain drain are major, notably the loss of human capital and GDP. According to the Westminster Foundation for Democracyannual education costs lost due to the departure of educated and educated young people from the region vary from a minimum of €840 million to €2.46 billion. This implies a reduction in consumption and welfare for the WB6 economies, which will cost them approximately €3 billion annual GDP growth.
The mass exodus of people in certain professions exacerbates problems related to the availability and accessibility of basic services. The most critical sector is public health, with a large proportion of young doctors and nurses leaving WB6, but the lack of services is also evident in lower skilled professions such as repair, maintenance and construction, Which leads to higher service costs and lower quality.
At the political level, the brain drain creates fertile ground for populism and anti-immigration sentiments that can harm WB6’s fragile democracies. As we see everywhere in Europe, right-wing parties are mobilize support with alarmist rhetoric on the demographic disappearance of countries and the threat of foreign workers, and as elsewhere, the democratic decline in the Western Balkans is linked to these populist tendencies.
However, as a historical and sensitive topic, the WB6 youth brain drain is often politicized and influenced by the political situation in each country. The brain drain of young people was one of the central subjects of the elections, around which entire political platforms were built. Parties attempt to attract voters by claiming that their many promises and various policy proposals show that their top priority is “keeping young people at home”. This was seen in the last parliamentary elections in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, where the politicization of the problem was evident. The largest parties blame each other, putting forward figures on their presumed share of responsibility for the exodus of talent.
Therefore, until now, the governments of these countries have not properly recognized or addressed the problem at the political level. It is a problem characterized by inconsistent and ineffective policies and surrounded by negative public discourse. In all six countries, retention policies are mainly used, aimed at building educational institutions and improving economic opportunities for young people.
These strategies are rather detached from migration policies, ignoring real trends in youth migration and only aiming to keep young people at home by addressing the causes of brain drain. On the other hand, policies have focused on the return of emigrants and their use as a resource are less used and were only introduced after 2010. Such strategies should be further developed to capitalize on the knowledge, skills and finances of the diaspora by attracting young people to return home or contribute.; It is facilitate migration management—i.e. brain gain and cerebral circulation.
Young, innovative and tech-savvy talents must be identified, contacted and offered collaboration via virtual tools and networks that can facilitate the sharing of knowledge and experiences.
It’s time to embrace new perspectives
Given this state of affairs, we need a new brain drain paradigm focused on the potential of the WB6 youth diaspora and based on enhanced regional cooperation and enriched relations with the EU. In light of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and the new “soft connectivity” approach of the EU-WB6—focused on promoting consistent rules and democratic standards throughout the EU accession process—Youth brain drain should be part of the conditionality framework for WB6 membership and given equal status to other difficult issues in the region. As a common problem, the youth brain drain requires common solutions, visionary actions and difficult regional compromises.
The phenomenon also needs to be fully recognized as a distinct policy area, at national and regional levels. In doing so, it must be analyzed not only as a negative trend, but also as a viable opportunity for socio-economic development, taking into account the financial assets, know-how and networks of the youth diaspora. This narrative shift can be achieved by following the Irish model of open collaboration which relies on the horizontal connection of institutions, media, business and the civil society sector for diaspora engagement, or the Estonian model, by reclassifying the region as fertile ground. for investment and innovation.
Emulate the foreign direct investment approach to tax benefits and global promotion; deepen the common regional market supported by the EU as a driver of the mobility of people, goods, services and capital; and promoting the success of diaspora entrepreneurial stories are some ideas to follow. Young, innovative and tech-savvy talents must be identified, contacted and offered collaboration via virtual tools and networks that can facilitate the sharing of knowledge and experiences.
A new agreement on migration that would emphasize the EU’s role in mitigating the brain drain through the EU accession process and increase EU accountability can support mobility and the exchange of WB6 young talents as a long-term strategic initiative. Among others, the BM6 Economic and Investment Plan (2020) and the WB program in innovation, research, education, culture, youth and sport (2021) provide an excellent starting point to further build capacity and cooperation among key regional actors to implement these policy innovations.
WB6’s ability to retain and attract its young people and talents is one of the factors on which its European aspirations and its democratic and economic progress depend. The opportunity is there and could be the last.
Marjan Icoski is a ReThink.CEE member of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a program manager at the Social Innovation Organization ARNO in North Macedonia.
This article was originally published by Transitions on OctoberOctober 19, 2022 under the title “Reversing the brain drain in the Western Balkans.”