Ricardo’s policy experts are working with the World Bank to help the Western Balkans manage road vehicle emissions to improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions.

Western Balkan countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – study best practices in sustainable transport and emissions policy from the rest of Europe. To provide support, the World Bank commissioned a study: Policy instruments for managing road vehicle emissions in the Western Balkans, financed by the Climate Support Facility (CSF). With Ricardo’s proven experience advising the EU on sustainable transport, air quality and vehicle life cycle assessment, we were well placed to enable countries to provide expert policy advice.

Total greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in the Western Balkans – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – increase exponentially. The increase in emissions is due not only to an increase in the rate of motorization, but also to a heavy dependence on second-hand vehicles.

SO, THE Western Balkan countries are actively studying best practices in sustainable transport and emissions reduction policies and implementation from the European Union. This is with the aim of adopting and implementing a “best in class” policy in their region to reduce road vehicle emissions. Here Harry Scammell explains how Ricardo experts applied their knowledge of sustainable transport policy assessment, air quality and vehicle lifecycle assessment, as well as emissions modeling, to support countries with expert policy advice.

Ricardo’s policy experts identified and assessed vehicle emissions policies in the six Western Balkan countries, including an in-depth study of North Macedonia, to provide evidence-based prioritization of policy action for the region and an evaluation of the measures enabling successful implementation.

Challenge

With our partner BSI, we were selected by the World Bank to characterize the existing road transport sector in terms of the automobile industry, data on passenger and freight road vehicles, greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption; carry out a governance review for each country; identify and evaluate policy measures at the regional level; and undertake an in-depth analysis of the political programs for North Macedonia.

The aim of our work for the World Bank was to enable the Western Balkans to achieve their three key objectives:

• Understand the institutional, regulatory, social and economic challenges and opportunities linked to the reform of road vehicle emissions management in the region
• Identify policy and regulatory measures to improve the environmental performance of road vehicle fleets in the region
• Develop a road map for road vehicle environmental policy, clearly oriented towards implementation, for a country to serve as a model for other countries in the region.

Our approach

For this World Bank study, in providing our expert advice on policy assessment and emissions modeling to the Western Balkans, we adopted the following four-step approach:

1. We characterized the road vehicle fleet and associated energy markets in the Western Balkans. This included analysis of vehicle markets and industry, analysis of road transport fuel and electricity markets, and quantitative analysis of vehicle stocks, flows and energy/emissions associated using Ricardo’s internal sustainable transport policy modeling tool (SULTAN).
2. We characterized the institutional, political and legal framework associated with road vehicle fleets in the region. This required a review of the institutional, policy and legal frameworks in each of the six countries to ascertain the functions of each responsible government administration in establishing, modifying and enforcing relevant policies, rules and standards to manage emissions from vehicles.
3. We identified and assessed policies and measures to improve the emissions performance of road vehicle fleets in the region. This mainly consisted of prioritizing policies and measures based on criteria such as environmental impact, value for money and ease of implementation. These findings were shared at a regional World Bank workshop to reach consensus on policy prioritization.
4. We have undertaken an in-depth analysis of the selected policy programs for North Macedonia. Our in-house SULTAN model was used to determine impacts on vehicle activity, powertrain choice, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants, based on policies regarding tax on less fuel-efficient vehicles, fuel tax, regulation of used vehicle imports and encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles (EV) for fleets

Our results

Review of policy measures: Our identification of policy measures for the Western Balkans region took stock of the political landscape in the region. It incorporated best practices from the countries concerned and analyzed gaps in relation to the European transport and energy policy framework. The policy measures were then reviewed taking into account their environmental, economic and equity impacts, as well as their ease of implementation. As a result, 34 policy measures were shortlisted and grouped into policy packages.

Policy recommendations for Western Balkan countries: Our assessment of policy programs provided an evidence-based prioritization of policy action for the region and an assessment of measures enabling successful implementation. We have identified three priority actions:

1. Priority action should include pollutant and CO₂ policies to control emissions from used vehicles and introduction of a mandate on the share of electric vehicles in public and possibly private fleets
2. High priority action is expected to include the deployment of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, an update of vehicle and fuel taxes and a reform of technical inspection procedures.
3. Medium priority action should include the introduction of emissions control policies for new vehicles

Policy recommendations for international stakeholders: The study also resulted in recommendations for action for international stakeholders such as the EU, the transport community and the World Bank.

Summarizing the effectiveness of the work for the Western Balkans, Lorenzo Casullo, Director of Sustainable Transport at Ricardo, said: “Working with the World Bank and our partner BSI, we have delivered a policy action plan aimed at reducing emissions transport in the Balkans. Our in-depth analysis of North Macedonia shows that these actions can be easily implemented and we look forward to further supporting the region to achieve these ambitious goals.

Contact us: can our expertise in policy evaluation and emissions modeling help you? Send us an email to: info@ricardo.com