Many of the most pressing issues related to the rule of law are deeply rooted in the political, economic and social structure of the Western Balkan countries. Resolving them is not an easy task and requires multifaceted solutions: the coveted trophy for promoting better governance cannot be obtained in a few months, nor even in five years (like the duration of a mandate of the EC). Instead, it needs a strategy that will bypass short-term victories in favor of long-term gains, while providing clear criteria, fair rewards and punishments, and using uncompromising language to denounce abuses. The Balkans study in Europe Policy Group «Strengthening the rule of law in the Western Balkans: call for a revolution against particularism» defines a sound strategy addressing the issue from an institutional, political and sociological point of view.
But why should EU member states care about this topic? From a practical point of view, it is understandable that European Union leaders and officials are sometimes reluctant to prioritize careful work that would only bear fruit in the long term, preferring to focus on maintaining stability (or His look) and on more achievable successes. Besides the obvious advantages for the Western Balkan countries, however, there are a number of advantages pragmatic reasons – alongside a host of nobler reasons – why the European Commission, and indeed all Member States of the European Union (including the ‘outgoing’ UK), should be interested in ensuring that a revolution comprehensive action against state capture and corruption takes place in EU candidate countries.
Security
A first immediate consideration concerns fight against organized crime and drug trafficking who comes from this region. In particular, Albanian gangs have risen in the ranks of foreign organized crime groups active in Western Europe. The UK National Crime Agency estimates that they now constitute the third most active group in cocaine trafficking (compared to eighth place in just three years), warning that Balkan criminals in general “continue to dominate the wholesale cocaine market, with a presence in all major cities and supply networks stretching back to countries of origin and transit”, having established direct relationships with suppliers from Latin America. Furthermore, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) calculated that the total value of illicit heroin and opium flowing from Afghanistan via the Balkan route to Western Europe is $28 billion per year. Countries with weak rule of law provide a more conducive environment for the growth of organized crime groups.
Migration and populism
Another important reason is to discourage migration new member states: a phenomenon often used by populist parties to generate support for anti-liberal anti-immigration rhetoric. An often overlooked problem is that, in the decision to emigrate, the rule of law can trump (or at least accompany) economic motivations. The example of Croatia is instructive in this sense. After joining the EU in July 2013, Croatia experienced a sharp increase in emigration: from 12.8k citizens who left the country in 2012, this number practically tripled to reach 36.4k in 2016. A survey carried out in 2018 by Index find that the four main motivations for leaving the country expressed by those interviewed are all linked to deficiencies in the rule of law and the perceived presence of “backward” values (“because of corruption”; “because of primitivism” , religious backwardness and nationalism”; “I don’t want to feed the thieves and parasites”; and “because of the thieves from the HDZ (the main ruling party)”), while economic interest (“low wages “) is only in fifth place. Likewise, MojPosao find that the desire to live in a country with a more suitable “world view and moral values” (67% of those surveyed) is a more important reason than the prospect of better paid jobs (56-58%).
The motivations highlighted by citizens leaving Croatia are very similar to those that appear to be dominant in other countries in the region. In Serbia, for example, members of the “active diaspora” (i.e. those interested in the political process in their country of origin) Was found be interested in returning to their country of origin, but only on the condition that a more meritocratic system allows them to be free from political influence. This new wave of migrants is no longer oriented towards nationalism and defends significantly more progressive views than previous diaspora communities. In other words, Endemic state capture and corruption are driving out the most progressive. parts of the population. This bodes poorly for electoral competition in the years to come, increase the danger of populism and nationalism in the candidate countries. Conversely, if this trend were to be overcome, it would encourage citizens to stay in their country, while attracting some of these members of the diaspora. In the medium and long term, this would help prevent the problems of illiberalism that we see today in some EU member states.
Foreign actors and doing business
There is, in addition, the Business Perspective: It is evident that orderly Western investors are discouraged by the lack of rule of law in the Western Balkans. Improving rule of law conditions would also ensure a better business environment for these investors, opening up new business opportunities for member states. Finally, and linked to this, the presence of foreign actors in the Western Balkans (like Russia, China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates) is closely linked with an informal, top-down and non-transparent way of conducting business transactions. It is now recognized that the EU must step up its game so that this space is not occupied by these actors; However, the most sensible action to take to tackle the root of the problem is to promote transparency and the rule of law, because the use of patronage networks facilitates and encourages the presence of actors willing to play games. political games and paying bribes, while inhibiting those who cannot and will not operate in this way.
This article is based on a study co-authored by Tena Prelec, Jovana Marovic and Marko Kmezic: Strengthening the rule of law in the Western Balkans: call for a revolution against particularism
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Note: This article was originally published on Blog of the Political Advisory Group on the Balkans in Europe (BiEPAG) and is reproduced with permission. It gives the author’s point of view, and not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Allen Allen (CC PAR 2.0)
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Tena Prelec is a research associate at LSEE-Research on South-Eastern Europe (LSE European Institute) and a PhD candidate in the Faculty of Law, Politics and Sociology at the University of Sussex. She is a member of the Balkans in Europe Political Advisory Group (BiEPAG).