Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 26 Number 3
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
The Balkans are not immune to jihadist propaganda and terrorist financing and recruitment. Terrorism could affect the delicate regional security situation, exacerbated by internal conflicts, economic crises and current geopolitical changes due to the Ukrainian conflict and the West-Russia confrontation.
According to open sources, from 2011 to 2016, around 1,000 people from the Balkans traveled to the Middle East mainly to join the Islamic State and the Nusra Front (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS) or minor jihadist groups. Most of them come from Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania and Sandžak (Raška) between Serbia and Montenegro.
Since the fall of Raqqa and Mosul, strongholds of the Islamic State, the Balkans have seen foreign fighters return to their home countries. Indeed, these individuals who joined terrorist activities in the Middle East could have spread jihadist propaganda in the region and supported local terrorist cells in organizing and carrying out violent attacks.
In July 2022, the European Union recently decided to begin membership negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. A few days ago, Brussels granted Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status, a decisive step towards the country’s accession to the European Union. Kosovo is seen as a potential candidate for EU membership, while Serbia and Montenegro are already candidate countries, although they must fulfill their duties to reach Brussels standards.
Given the geopolitical and crucial role that the Balkans play on the Eurasian strategic scene and in the integration of the countries of the region into the European Union, the assessment of potential risks and terrorist threats is fundamental to understanding the impact possible of the Balkan state on the security of the EU.
We met with Serbian academic and university professor Marija Djoric to discuss the current security situation in the Balkans and the jihadist threat to regional stability. Marija Doric earned her doctorate in the field of violent extremism and has published more than 90 research articles and five books. Currently employed at the Institute of Political Studies in Belgrade and visiting professor at Charles University (Univerzita Karlova) in Prague. In addition, she is a consultant/expert to several international organizations (OSCE, UN, Council of Europe, RESOLVE, etc.).
The Balkans play an interconnecting role between the Middle East and Europe for terrorist organizations. What is the current security level and geopolitical risks in the region?
“Europe has especially considered the Balkans (sometimes rightly and sometimes not) as a cancerous tissue that can quickly spread to the rest of the continent. The Balkans are often referred to metaphorically (due to frequent internal conflicts) as a “powder keg”; However, it should be borne in mind that the fire in this “powder magazine” was usually started by someone else outside the Balkans. The region has always been the scene of diverse interests for major powers due to its location at the crossroads of the world. It is still like this today. Whoever controls the Balkans controls an important geopolitical point that can be used to ease or fuel tensions – it all depends on what is in the interests of the great powers.
As for terrorism, its most intense forms in the Balkans in recent years have been ethno-separatist terrorism (through the activities of the so-called Albanian “Kosovo Liberation Army”, “Bujanovac Liberation Army”). , Preševo and Medveđa”. “Albanian National Army”), whose main historical objective is the creation of “Greater Albania”, which would destabilize the entire Balkan region.
Another current problem is religiously motivated terrorism. It is well known that around 1,000 people from the Western Balkans joined some Islamist terrorist organizations in Syria (most of them joined ISIS). The territory of Kosovo and Metohija is known for the fact that the largest number of European terrorists (in relation to the total number of inhabitants) left for Syria and Iraq, precisely from this territory. Currently, the return of foreign terrorist fighters (FTS) and their families from Syria and Iraq to the Balkans poses a major security challenge. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Metohija are at particularly high risk due to the fact that large numbers of their inhabitants have joined terrorist organizations. Of course, as a post-conflict region (I’m talking here about the wars of the 1990s), the Balkans are also threatened by the activities of right-wing extremism, which are taking on a new dimension with the migrant crisis and the war in Ukraine.“.
Do you think that the current situation in Ukraine and the possibility of jihadist fighters and private entrepreneurs to settle on Ukrainian territory and fight in the ranks of the International Legion could influence the security situation in Europe, especially in the Balkans?
“The war in Ukraine has created a number of security challenges on a global scale, and the Balkans will therefore be no exception. From the start of the conflicts in Donbass in 2014, volunteers from the Balkans rallied to the Russian or Ukrainian side. In addition to those who left as “dogs of war” (mercenaries), among the Balkan fighters there were also ideologically motivated individuals.
The departure of the peoples of the Balkans to the Ukrainian front is still relevant, but it is worth noting a very important fact that distinguishes them from the rest of Europe. Indeed, in all Western Balkan countries, laws have been enacted criminalizing departures to foreign battlefields (mainly in 2015/16). The adoption of these laws was primarily motivated by the war in Syria and the start of the crisis in Ukraine in 2014. Interestingly, departures to foreign battlefields are still legal (or not explicitly prohibited ) in many Western European countries, which, in my opinion, I am sure, will give a new dimension to the current conflict in Ukraine. Here, for example, Europe could take inspiration from the Balkan states, which legally criminalize departures to foreign battlefields. I believe that the events in Ukraine will be a major driver of the strengthening of the far right in the Balkans, although, for the moment, we do not have the involvement of jihadist fighters from the region.“.
Concerning Serbia, what is the government’s strategy to oppose jihadist propaganda and terrorist recruitment?
“Serbia has a solid national counterterrorism strategy, which is a document that meets all international standards. The preparation of the new strategic document is currently underway. A total of 49 adult Serbian citizens (37 men and 12 women) left for Syria and Iraq.
The Organized Crime Prosecutor’s Office filed an indictment against seven people, who were charged with the criminal offenses of terrorist association, terrorism, recruitment and training for terrorist acts, public incitement to terrorist acts and terrorist financing, all in relation to terrorist activities on the territory of Syria and Iraq. These people were sentenced to prison terms totaling 69 years and six months.
On the other hand, in some countries in the region, prison sentences for acts of terrorism are much more lenient; there are even individuals who have received suspended sentences for an act of terrorism. My country has (unfortunately) extensive experience in combating terrorist organizations involved in the secession of the Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija, which contributes greatly to combating new forms of extremism and terrorism. In addition to strong legislation, Serbia is widely involved in preventing violent extremism, collaborating with countries in the region and with reputable international organizations.
Great importance is placed on working with young people, where the education system and civil society play an important role. Much is also being done for the rehabilitation and reintegration of returnees from foreign battlefields (especially mothers and children).“.
Do you think the historic confrontation between Serbia and Kosovo could affect regional security and create fertile ground for terrorist activities?
“The so-called “Kosovo” is Europe’s black hole and the source of the most serious security problems: corruption, organized crime, extremism, terrorism, human trafficking, drug trafficking, arms trafficking… Currently, it is difficult to be Serb and live in Kosovo and Metohija, knowing all the more that all human rights have been violated, from freedom of movement, religious rights to the right to work and life.
As we speak, Serbs are struggling to survive in their centuries-old homeland. Their struggle is not only a struggle for their own survival but also for the survival of the Christian heritage in this part of Europe. There are approximately 1,300 Christian churches and monasteries in Kosovo. In the last ten years alone, 150 churches, monasteries and other buildings have been damaged and desecrated, of which 61 have the status of cultural monuments, while 18 of them are of exceptional importance for Serbia. At the same time, more than 10,000 icons, religious objects and liturgical objects have been destroyed or looted and are currently on the illegal antiquities market. 5,261 tombstones were destroyed in 256 Serbian Orthodox cemeteries, while in more than 50 cemeteries there is not a single intact tombstone.
Given these facts, it is difficult to talk about peace and stability in the Balkan region or even in Europe. The idea of a “Greater Albania”, born from the wrest of Kosovo-Metohija from Serbia, threatens to endanger the stability of the entire region (Montenegro, North Macedonia, Greece). I sincerely hope that the great powers will not allow this.
I see an opportunity to overcome the conflict in the Balkans in the economic association of states which, pursuing their common economic interests, will heal old wounds and look towards a better future. We owe it to the new generations at least to eliminate the stigma of “balkanization” from them.“.