The Balkan region has long been considered important by regional and supraregional powers due to its natural, human, economic and political characteristics. Due to the geographical location of the region, complex ethnic relations contextreligious ideologies and economics, the Balkan Peninsula has experienced successive crises and conflicts in modern times, including its key role in the two world wars. The region has long been the scene of rivalries between world powers, but this rivalry has only intensified since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe.
In recent decades, the United States, Russia, the European Union and China have sought to use their power to expand their influence in the Balkans. In today’s multipolar world, small countries, including the Balkans, can play a strategic role; if a global power neglects to work with them, these small countries are ready to move on to other competing forces. As a result, the US, Russia, the EU and China are seeking to expand their influence by adopting a new geopolitical strategy for the Balkans. The sum of these movements shows that the Balkan region is considered essential by the great powers for strategic, political and economic reasons.
The EU’s position in the Balkans
With 27 members, more than 447 million inhabitants and geopolitical influence, the European Union offers a unique model of regional development. convergence. However, after the establishment of the EU, there were many debates in policy and academic circles about the position of the EU in the international system. Despite the conflicting interests of member states, the EU increasingly presents itself as a collectively powerful actor on the global stage that seeks to exert normative influence on the international stage through its own foreign policy. Consequently, it is crucial to study what is the effect of EU policy on normative power on the Western Balkans, the tools it used and the major challenges it encountered.
The Western Balkans have always been a buffer zone, presenting great crises and threats to the rest of Europe. After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of Communist regimes, the Balkans were plunged into civil war. Nevertheless, despite their highly controversial and tense history, the Balkans remain of particular importance to the EU. The geographical proximity, historical and cultural similarities and common borders of this region have created the basis for the development of relations between the two. However, disparities between peninsula countries and the lack of a clear timetable for EU membership (as well as EU members’ divergent views on enlargement policy) have delayed the prospect of full membership in the bloc. That is, until recently. In recent years, events in the Western Balkans have forced the EU to change its strategy towards countries in the region and become more active.
One of the reasons why the EU is opening its doors to the Balkans is to neutralize the geopolitical influences of Russia and China in the region. During the last years, Russia and China have invested massively in the Western Balkans, thus consolidating their status as major trading partners. The second reason the EU is opening its doors is that the Balkans are a relatively turbulent region suffering from ethnic conflicts and organized crime. The EU has therefore long sought to strengthen stability in the region. There is also a risk that the problems in the Balkan region will persist and eventually spread even to the EU. Third, the Balkans are a transit region and therefore need to be coordinated with EU energy supply structures, which are particularly important for the continent’s Western countries.
The American presence in the Balkans
After the Cold War and during the Yugoslav Civil War, the United States expanded its political presence in the Balkans through bilateral political and security relations, as well as NATO membership. For some time, the United States maintained a stronghold in the region and almost consolidated its geostrategic presence in the region. However, after a while, the EU’s role in crisis management in the Balkans strengthened, thereby diminishing the influence of the United States. Nevertheless, the United States hopes to regain its influence in the Western Balkans through the partnership and support of the EU, particularly to counter Russian influence. For example, Serbia is one of the largest republics of the former Yugoslavia and maintains traditional and close ties with Russia. Washington has therefore sought to revive and improve its relations with the government in Belgrade in various ways, as well as to maintain a certain level of presence in the region to counter the Russian presence. Therefore, NATO, with 4,000 troops, is parked at the Bundestil base in Kosovo.
Serbia’s accession to the EU being one of its priorities, it regularly undergoes political pressure from Brussels or Washington. This is why Serbia has been repeatedly asked to join the countries that imposed punishments on Russia about Ukraine. In 2017, the Trump administration moved to mediate in the region as regional tensions escalated. His administration considered three main objectives: first, a permanent American military presence in Southeast Europe; second, historic reconciliation with Serbia, which can become a US ally in the region, provided it distances itself from Russia; and third, the activation of US mediation efforts to resolve regional disputes, particularly the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo.
Russia’s position in the Balkans
Just as the US and EU accuse Russia of interfering in the internal affairs of the Balkans, Moscow is also concerned about the presence of the US and EU in the Balkans; Moscow says the West is stepping up efforts to bring Balkan countries into NATO as part of an overall plan against Russia. He considers the Balkans entrance NATO membership poses a threat to its borders, as NATO is trying to move closer to Russia’s borders with the accession of European countries. Even the idea of the Balkan countries joining the EU will be unpleasant for Russia. The accession of the Balkans to the EU would have extraordinary consequences for Russia:
- Russian companies will have to comply with strict EU standards to work with Balkan companies, which will create more difficult conditions than already exist.
- According to general EU foreign trade policyBalkan countries must abandon their free trade agreement with Russia if Balkan countries join the EU.
- The integration of Balkan countries into the EU would increase the number of countries sanctioning Russia.
Just like the United States, Brussels can offer incentives such as EU membership, NATO membership or national investments. At the same time, Russia also has many assets, including access to natural gas, to attract Balkan countries. However, after 2016, the United States and the EU resorted to Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline deliver gas from the Republic of Azerbaijan to Greece and Albania via Turkey; then to Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas. But despite this, Russia also has a strong presence in the region as countries like Serbia receive Russian military personnel. equipment. Furthermore, Serbia was one of the first countries to declare its readiness to carry out human trials after the Russian vaccine against COVID-19. That is to say, the Balkans This region, in addition to being a strategic political region, is also an economically important passage for Russia, the United States and the EU.
China and the Balkans
In recent years, China has invested heavily in the Balkans and is one of the region’s main trading partners. China progress in the Western Balkans has taken on a considerable scope, from bridge projects in Croatia to direct investments in Bosnia’s energy infrastructure. Additionally, China plans to expand 5G networks in Serbia. However, Beijing’s diplomatic and economic activities in the Balkans raise concerns about instability in the region. For example, China’s close relations with Serbia and widespread human rights violations against Serbia Uighur Muslim Minorities could contribute to regional instability amid rivalry between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina due to the ethnic Serb majority in Bosnia. Like Serbia and Bosnian As Serbs’ political relations are very close with China, Beijing could potentially give rise to gross human rights violations. Although the repression of more than a million Uyghur ethnic minorities has had no direct consequences for Serbia, the fact that China is committing widespread human rights violations with impunity against a minority ethnic group may indirectly empower to other human rights violators, like Serbia, who receive its support. While China’s growing presence in the EU may not directly reduce tensions in the region, it could pave the way for the next Balkan crisis.
Conclusion
Overall, throughout the history of the Balkans, geopolitical rivalries and disputes over regional issues have created a very dangerous combination and fueled military conflicts. This rivalry is even more relevant today, as competing foreign powers compete over issues involving economic influence, defense cooperation, and political support for countries in the region. In addition to being a strategic political region, the Balkans also provide an economically important gateway for world powers. Meanwhile, the United States, Russia, China and the EU are trying to take advantage of this opportunity to expand their influence in the Balkans. Despite the expansion of trade and especially the role of the EU in stabilizing the Balkans, the specter of ethnic conflict in the region remains and world powers are taking advantage of this situation.
On the other hand, the fragility of Balkan governments prevents them from turning to a single foreign power. Meanwhile, the balance of power strategy will mean that Balkan governments can benefit from economic deals, bailouts and political support from several foreign powers. The fact is that instead of providing growth opportunities to the region, the major powers that play a major role in the region are more concerned about using these countries in their power play. If Balkan leaders were wise, they would use investment and economic partnership from outside powers to increase the efficiency of the administrative structure and economic institutions.
Amin Bagheri is a researcher at the Tehran International Studies Association. His main research interests are international relations, peace and conflict in the Middle East.
Dr Saeed Bagheri is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in International Law at the School of Law, University of Reading, UK.
