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The end of the conflict in Yugoslavia and attempts to stabilize the region opened the prospect of European Union membership in all successor states. The process of European integration has been seen as a process of “return to Europe”, while the promotion of European values has served to define the society we wish to have. In Serbia, a country very polarized on the question of EU membership, the Union has never acquired only the status of an international organization whose membership we wish to obtain. It was above all perceived and promoted as a system of values. With a recent history marked by nationalism and violence towards neighboring countries, the dominant belief since 2003 and the Thessaloniki Summit has been that by adopting values such as tolerance, democracy and respect for individual human rights and collective – considered intrinsically European – Serbia and its neighboring countries will become a peaceful and prosperous zone.
Despite the skepticism that persists, over the years, the majority of the population has remained faithful to the idea of joining the EU by supporting respect for standards in order to transform a society still afflicted by nationalism, intolerance and corruption. The underlying principle was that with a still unaccountable political elite and weak institutions, the EU can be a crucial partner and external pressure in a state transformation. Unable to exercise effective control over the executive branch, the integration process was seen by many civilian actors as a tool that could help achieve the desired standards in terms of transparency, protection of human rights and Rule of law.
Similarly, the EU has relied for years on its powers of persuasion. The “European perspective” has been used as a “carrot” to influence policy and help overcome deep polarizations between and within countries. The world’s largest market, a welfare system and an education system, to name just a few, have been used to project the idea of the EU as a thriving and prosperous region. And the Western Balkans (or Restern, as it is commonly known after Croatia’s accession in 2013), the EU’s geographical inner courtyard, would be next on the list to join. However, after twelve years of enlargement, the EU has changed, citizens’ trust has eroded and only the Balkan states have remained (almost) the same.
Firstly, the EU is no longer seen as a peaceful and prosperous island; it is thus losing its appeal in the Western Balkans on a more symbolic level. Having been in permanent crisis for years, it seems that the refugee situation in particular has exposed the fragility of the values promoted for years as intrinsically European. Mutual accusations and discriminatory attitudes towards migrants have triggered clashes within the EU, demonstrating the lack of mechanisms to manage the crisis and the absence of solidarity (already endangered after the situation with Greece in the first semester). The rhetoric used by Viktor Orban in neighboring Hungary and many other European leaders, as well as the border barriers that have appeared in just a few months across Europe, have exposed the weakness of European unity. And a shameful attempt to distinguish between refugees on the basis of their religious affiliation has only served as a reminder of the darkest period in European history.
On the other hand, also affected by the crisis, the Western Balkan countries have unexpectedly reemerged as an example of indispensable solidarity. The region known as a periphery of Europe and a place where Europe’s worst atrocities took place after World War II, was suddenly praised for its treatment of refugees. Even Serbia and Croatia – at war twenty years ago – managed to reach an agreement to speed up the flow of refugees across the border. Therefore, what many are asking today (rightly): if EU membership means “returning to Europe”, what kind of Europe are we returning to?
At the same time, Serbia, as well as other Western Balkan countries, remains facing serious problems of democratic consolidation. Considered at the beginning as an exercise in achieving a benchmark where the final destination had no alternative, integration has today become uncertain and unpredictable. Instead of stable, functioning states and open, tolerant societies, the past dozen years of integration have instead brought “the consolidation of unconsolidated democracies.” Human rights protection is still insufficient; Freedom of expression is particularly under threat, as highlighted in the latest EU national report. Furthermore, public sector and justice system reforms remain at an unsatisfactory level across the region. However, the Union is more willing than ever to trade respect for the rule of law for regional stability. To cite just one example: despite numerous political setbacks, recognizing Serbia’s efforts towards normalization of relations with Kosovo, the European Council officially decided to begin accession negotiations between Serbia and the EU . Thus, prioritizing conditions and rewarding a regime with clearly authoritarian domestic tendencies was seen as a failure of the EU to deliver on its promise to citizens.
As a result, across the region, reform fatigue and a sense that living conditions are not improving have made people jaded by promises of a better European future. Still in the EU waiting room, the European future of the Balkans remains just that, a future and not the present. Yet the refugee crisis has shown that the region is an enclave within the EU and that the region’s problems are spreading very quickly to the EU. And even if the enlargement policy gradually loses its credibility and public support in the Balkans, the EU can still win the battle to capture the hearts and minds of citizens. But first, it must demonstrate a willingness to uphold its own set of self-proclaimed values based on universal human rights and prevent current discriminatory behavior from appearing normal. And secondly, inclusion and giving citizens a voice must be part of the reform strategy for the region. Demonstrating commitment to tackling areas crucial to ordinary citizens, such as corruption and the justice system, and not allying with tarnished political elites, will strengthen the EU’s credibility and increase vital popular support for the integration process.
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