The year 2022 has been marked by an avalanche of conflicts in Europe and northern Eurasia, triggered by Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine. Many old and recent conflicts, most of them unresolved by the draft Greater Europewhich was supposed to extend from Lisbon and Dublin to Vladivostok, have returned to change the lives of European societies and nations that aspire to be European. The chain reaction triggered by the invasion destroyed the system of deterrence of international and internal political conflicts. So, as the year 2022 draws to a close, we see the continued fragmentation and militarization of space that we expected him to be “Greater Europe”, a region of peace and cooperation.
Triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, militarism, a way of thinking and acting that includes military ends and means as a political and socio-economic norm – appears to be becoming the zeitgeist redefining the Old World’s understanding of its geography and recent history. As General Valery Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Forces, is right declared, this war began in 2014, and the massive Russian invasion was just the next step in a military conflict that lasted almost nine years. But with this measure, the Ukrainian war zone has become the epicenter of the region’s reconfiguration.
As we approach the end of 2022, it is clear that Europe is caught in at least three rings of militarization. In the first, local case, the war launched against Ukraine spread to neighboring countries. In the second circle, frozen conflicts melt, while latent conflicts erupt with renewed vigor. And in the third circle, spanning northern Eurasia, countries reacting to or participating in the growing and protracted antagonism between Russia and the West face new political and socio-economic realities, with new risks and new struggles.
Three rings
In the first circle are Belarus and the southwestern regions of Russia. The Belarusian government authorized the Kremlin to use its terrain to launch attacks against Ukraine since February 2022. In recent months, Minsk increased its military units and guest more Russian troops on Belarusian soil. On October 20, 2022, due to the increase in military incidents on Russian soil, President Putin was forced to increase national alert levels. A “basic readiness level” is in effect for all of Russia, a “high readiness level” for the Central and Southern Federal Districts, and a “medium response regime” in all Russian regions bordering Ukraine . Here, militarism is directly linked to the war in Ukraine and its spread across borders.
The second circle includes countries experiencing their own conflicts and likely to restart. It could be Moldova, on whose soil Russian missiles fell; the frozen conflict in Transnistria has never been resolved. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has spread beyond Karabakh and spread deeper in Armenia this year. Clashes in Central Asia caused more and more victims in 2022. The old Balkan conflicts definitely feel the injection of new militaristic inspiration. The militaristic spirit feeds old wounds in the limbo of Europe and northern Eurasia.
In the third circle surrounding the Ukrainian war zone we find the rest of European and northern Eurasian societies. Militarism changed the political preferences European companies and in some cases, such as Italy And Sweden, propelled far-right political parties to leadership positions. The instability of many European governments was linked to the war in Ukraine, making government unrest in the United Kingdom one of the most striking examples.
Another militaristic influence can be seen in the competition within the EU over which country will have the largest European army, Poland, FranceOr Germany. THE European And Eurasian Economies have been hit hard by Russia’s war in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions. The outbreak of war also had repercussions in Russian regions far from the war zone, as they enter Russian waters. deeper social conflicts And political polarizationwhich suggests that Putin’s regime is destabilizing the economy and society.
Reframing a Europe of the future
The ongoing war has profoundly altered our understanding of peace, war, and the political geography of the world in which we live. The former geopolitical periphery is increasingly central, while the former center follows the trends imposed by newly emboldened nations.
The current crisis of the European idea shows that we have indeed become deeply integrated over the last thirty years. It also teaches us lessons. One of them is that the future project of a united Europe will have to seriously address the sources of international and intranational conflicts and build institutions capable of resolving or preventing them in a timely manner.
The Europe of the future can only prosper if it relies not only on prosperous urban communities, such as those of Lisbon, Dublin or Vladivostok, but also on places where unrest continues. The new Greater Europe must therefore be the Belfast region, which risks falling back into dark days, in Magadan, once the capital of Stalin’s gulag system. The Europe of the future must be a place of vigilant peace and a seasoned and solid liberal democracy.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not reflect those of the Kennan Institute.