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The hates The aftermath of two world wars prompted France, West Germany and others to join forces and create what is today the European Union. Seventy years later, war has returned to the continent. Out of the rubble Ukrainesomething that resembles the feeling that moved the EUThe founding fathers are on the move again. There is now talk of admitting up to nine new members, including Ukraine. Joining the world’s most successful club of peaceful and prosperous democracies would put this war-ravaged country – along with its fellow candidates in the Western Balkans, Georgia and Moldova – on a new and promising path.
For the EU in itself, it would also be simply historic, completing a great continental union and marking the end of a process that began with victory over the Nazis. Apart from one or two future candidates (perhaps one day, including Great Britain), the shape of the EU would be generally resolved. But the way EU works should change.
The expansion of EU from 27 to, say, 36 will be tricky. But after a long period when the idea of enlargement was dormant – Croatia, the latest new entrant, joined ten years ago – it is back on the agenda. Leaders from across the continent, including aspiring new members, will meet in the Spanish city of Granada on October 5. The next day, those already part of the club will outline the reforms that will be necessary to keep the show running with larger (and more diverse) members. An arduous process will ensue. The applicants and EU the machine will both need to be changed. The stated date of 2030 for the completion of enlargement is optimistic, but it is worth striving for.
Leaders considering the future shape of the Union should remember that enlargement has been its most successful policy. Major projects Like the euro, the single market and regulation of tech giants are important, but much of their value comes from the fact that their reach extends beyond France and Germany to Finland , Greece, Slovakia and Spain. Imagine how much EU would have been to help Ukraine if it had not already joined four countries bordering the war zone. Further enlargement could increase Europe’s geopolitical weight, as French President Emmanuel Macron, once skeptical of expansion, now appears to recognize.
THE EU We can no longer afford to force the nine candidates to become members by letting their applications languish without having a realistic hope of seeing them join. Leaving European neighbors in a gray area opens the door to those who would like to destabilize the continent, starting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. This unhealthy dynamic has fueled the cynical and sometimes dysfunctional politics of the six Western Balkan countries and the three other candidates. None of them will be easy to integrate. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine all have Russian troops occupying part of their territory (as did Germany until 1990). All candidate countries are considered only “partly free” by Freedom House, an American think tank. (Turkey, although technically still a candidate, is unfortunately far from ready.)
As he embarks on this mission, the EU should make three firm commitments. The first is a message of hope to candidates: as long as they undertake the necessary reforms to become worthy members, they will be admitted. A similar promise was made to the Western Balkans in 2003, but was quickly forgotten. Applicants must always meet the same criteria as others to join the EU, notably by defending democracy. The conditions for joining the euro must be strict. But those who make a good faith effort should be offered more help as their journey progresses. Some benefits of membership could be granted gradually as economic reforms take root, notably access to the single market. At the same time, it must remain clear that the final destination is full EU membership, not external uncertainty.
The second commitment is that the EUThe country’s internal reforms must not delay the accession of those who are ready to do so. Yes, the union must rethink its internal functioning: a greater EU will not be better if it becomes blocked. Once increased to 36, it would be foolish to allow a single country’s government to veto collective action, as is currently the case for foreign affairs and taxation. The common agricultural policy, which swallows up a third of the EU budget, will need drastic reform and relief to prevent too many subsidies being paid to Ukrainian oligarchs who run farms the size of a few tens of thousands of dollars. EU countries. Letting poorer members in will divert development funds away from some current beneficiaries. But the EU should not keep the door closed while he puts his own house in order.
The final imperative is to learn lessons from past enlargements. Most countries reforming to enter the EU stay on track and grow both freer and more prosperous. But a few took a bad turn: Hungary and Poland defied EU standards to which they adhered. If the club wants to take a chance on newcomers with a shaky governance record, it must have mechanisms in place to punish bad behavior. A good starting point would be to make it easier EU funds must be withheld from questionable schemes. Rightly so, this has started to happen.
Grow, grow, grow
The prospect of welcoming a batch of newcomers is daunting. But Europe, after careful consideration, has already launched itself into the unknown and succeeded in getting there. Greece, Portugal, and Spain were all introduced about a decade after overthrowing wicked dictatorships and are now thriving as vigorous democracies. Between 2004 and 2007, the block welcomed a dozen new members, most of whom were under Soviet rule. This almost doubled the number of EU country, and increased the club population by 27%, almost double what is currently on offer. What seemed impossible then is now considered inevitable and vital.
More than anything, if Europe wants to be a force in the world, it must show that it has the capacity to act. Delaying enlargement because it is too difficult to achieve would weaken the continent and therefore the union at its heart, particularly if Russian aggression today is followed tomorrow by American isolationism. As appalling as the circumstances of the war were, they provided the impetus for a EU it’s both bigger and better. Europe must find a way to build it. ■
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