The horror of two world wars inspired France, West Germany and others to join forces and create what is today the European Union. Seventy years later, war has returned to the continent. Out of the rubble Ukraine, something akin to the sentiment that moved the EU’s founding fathers is stirring again. There is now talk of admitting up to nine new members, including Ukraine. Joining the world’s most successful club of peaceful and prosperous democracies would put this war-ravaged country – along with its fellow candidates in the Western Balkans, Georgia and Moldova – on a new and promising path.
The horror of two world wars inspired France, West Germany and others to join forces and create what is today the European Union. Seventy years later, war has returned to the continent. Out of the rubble Ukraine, something akin to the sentiment that moved the EU’s founding fathers is stirring again. There is now talk of admitting up to nine new members, including Ukraine. Joining the world’s most successful club of peaceful and prosperous democracies would put this war-ravaged country – along with its fellow candidates in the Western Balkans, Georgia and Moldova – on a new and promising path.
For the EU itself, this would also be simply historic, as it would complete a great continental union and marking the end of a process that began with victory over the Nazis. Barring one or two future candidates (perhaps one day, including Britain), the shape of the EU would largely be determined. But the way the EU works should change.
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For the EU itself, this would also be simply historic, as it would complete a great continental union and marking the end of a process that began with victory over the Nazis. Barring one or two future candidates (perhaps one day, including Britain), the shape of the EU would largely be determined. But the way the EU works should change.
Enlarging the EU from 27 to, say, 36 will be tricky. But after a long period when the idea of enlargement was dormant – Croatia, the latest new entrant, joined ten years ago – it is back on the agenda. Leaders from across the continent, including potential new members, will meet in the Spanish city of Granada on October 5. The next day, those already part of the club will outline the reforms that will be necessary to keep the show running with larger (and more diverse) members. An arduous process will ensue. Both the candidates and the European machine will have to change. The stated date of 2030 for the completion of enlargement is optimistic, but it is worth striving for.
Leaders considering the future shape of the Union should remember that enlargement has been its most successful policy. Big projects like the euro, the single market and the regulation of tech giants are important, but much of their value comes from the fact that their reach extends beyond France and Germany to reach Finland, Greece, Slovakia and Spain. Imagine how much less muscular the EU would have been in helping Ukraine if it had not already joined four countries bordering the war zone. Further enlargement could increase Europe’s geopolitical weight, as French President Emmanuel Macron, once skeptical of expansion, now appears to recognize.
The EU can no longer afford to force the nine candidates to become members by letting their applications drag on without having a realistic hope of seeing them join. Leaving European neighbors in a gray area opens the door to those who would like to destabilize the continent, starting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. This unhealthy dynamic has fueled the cynical and sometimes dysfunctional politics of the six Western Balkan countries and the three other candidates. None of them will be easy to integrate. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine all have Russian troops occupying part of their territory (as did Germany until 1990). All candidate countries are considered only “partly free” by Freedom House, an American think tank. (Turkey, although technically still a candidate, is unfortunately far from ready.)
As it embarks on this mission, the EU should make three firm commitments. The first is a message of hope to candidates: as long as they undertake the necessary reforms to become worthy members, they will be admitted. A similar promise was made to the Western Balkans in 2003, but was quickly forgotten. Candidates must still meet the same criteria as others to join the EU, including defending democracy. The conditions for joining the euro must be strict. But those who make a good faith effort should be offered more help as their journey progresses. Some benefits of membership could be granted gradually as economic reforms take root, notably access to the single market. At the same time, it must remain clear that the final destination is full EU membership, not an external vagueness.
The second commitment is that internal EU reforms must not delay the accession of those who are ready to do so. Yes, the Union must rethink its internal functioning: a bigger European Union will not be better if it finds itself in a dead end. Once increased to 36, it would be foolish to allow a single country’s government to veto collective action, as is currently the case for foreign affairs and taxation. The common agricultural policy, which swallows up a third of the EU budget, will need drastic reform and relief to prevent too many subsidies going to Ukrainian oligarchs who run farms the size of some EU countries. Letting poorer members in will divert development funds away from some current beneficiaries. But the EU should not leave the door closed while it puts its own house in order.
The final imperative is to learn lessons from past enlargements. Most countries that reform to enter the EU stay on track and become both freer and more prosperous. But a few took a bad turn: Hungary and Poland defied the European standards to which they adhered. If the club wants to take a chance on newcomers with a shaky governance record, it must have mechanisms in place to punish bad behavior. A good starting point would be to facilitate the withdrawal of European funds intended for dubious schemes. Rightly so, this has started to happen.
Grow, grow, grow
The prospect of welcoming a batch of newcomers is daunting. But Europe, after careful consideration, has already launched itself into the unknown and succeeded in getting there. Greece, Portugal, and Spain were all introduced about a decade after overthrowing wicked dictatorships and are now thriving as vigorous democracies. Between 2004 and 2007, the bloc welcomed a dozen new members, most of whom were under Soviet rule. This almost doubled the number of EU countries and increased the club’s population by 27%, almost double what is currently on offer. What seemed impossible then is now considered inevitable and vital.
More than anything, if Europe wants to be a force in the world, it must show that it has the capacity to act. Delaying enlargement because it is too difficult to achieve would weaken the continent and therefore the union at its heart, particularly if Russian aggression today is followed tomorrow by American isolationism. As appalling as the circumstances of the war were, they provided the impetus for a European Union that was both bigger and better. Europe must find a way to build it.
