Contemporary global disorder is the result of the loss of vision of the leadership of the West (led by the United States), leading to a crisis of the liberal international order. This crisis is marked by various interconnected factors that challenge stability and prosperity. In this context, the “Western Balkans” region – the political term given by the EU – finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with unique vulnerabilities that could lead to implosion.
The current global disorder is a consequence of the crisis of the liberal international order. The erosion of multilateralism, the rise of nationalism, economic inequality, backlash against globalization and, most importantly, the loss of confidence in democracy are key factors contributing to the current global crisis. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine risks escalating into a global conflict if rationality does not prevail.
In this fractured global context, the Western Balkans face a unique set of challenges. It must deal with the indecision of the West, as well as the predatory nature of the East, mainly led by Russia and China. This struggle has given rise to weak institutions, economic disparities, social divisions and escalating security risks that could lead to implosion. These vulnerabilities hamper regional stability, hamper economic development and pose obstacles to integration and cooperation. Furthermore, the region has its own responsibilities that fuel regional impatience and economic stagnation, further increasing the risk of implosion.
Reason and result
The current global disorder, characterized by wars, rapid inflation rates and economic stagnation, results from the loss of vision of Western leadership. After World War II, the United States essentially presented a vision of a better future. The liberal international order has become the platform for realizing this vision, with many countries aligning with the West to ensure a prosperous future. This is one of the main reasons why the United States has dominated through its soft power, although it deserves a separate analysis.
Regarding geopolitical rivalries, many observers have scrutinized the overall capacity of Russia and China to challenge the West. At the same time, some argued that both countries were not strong enough to challenge the West during their recovery from the world wars. Yet the real explanation lies in one of the most critical leadership skills: setting the vision. After the Cold War, the West, compared to the East, set the vision of a prosperous future and offered many countries the hope of working for mutual benefit. It is undeniable that neither Russia nor China could dominate the world stage then, nor are they capable of doing so today. The Cold War provides a good benchmark for measuring the East’s capacity to wage war against the West. The ongoing war in Ukraine is a reminder that countries still possess the capacity to engage in war. However, the crucial question remains: who can assume the role of leadership in today’s world?
In this context, the entity that assumes global leadership and presents a clear vision will play a decisive role in shaping the future world order. Others will follow or comply accordingly. Given Russia and China’s current priorities and approaches to geopolitical competition, it is imperative that the West resume its leadership role and establish a new vision without delay.
Furthermore, Turkey occupies a unique geographical position that allows it to play a leadership role or serve as an example. It forms a crucial bridge between two continents, making it an important factor in maintaining a delicate balance between West and East. Turkey has proven to be an allied partner while cooperating effectively and fostering crucial relations with the Middle East, Asia and the Caucasus.
The global system has undergone rapid change over the past century and today we live in what remains of the liberal international order. The mismanagement of this order by Western leaders and politicians, who lack accountability, has given rise to populism, inequality, forced migration and various other challenges. Great powers have become predatory, while middle states try to find a balance between safeguarding their national interests and those of the great powers. Small states, on the other hand, seem to be running out of options and are forced to bow to great power politics, or risk getting involved in wars. The current situation in Ukraine is a perfect example. Therefore, the crucial question remains: how to control great powers to prevent reckless actions?
Stability and prosperity
The unfortunate label “Western Balkans”, assigned to the region by the EU, is a direct consequence of the crisis facing the liberal international order. Although Western powers succeeded in establishing peace in the region during the 1990s, they failed to offer long-term, sustainable solutions that would ensure continued prosperity. Over time, the Dayton Accords, initially intended to guarantee peace, gradually became obsolete. This result was to be expected, given that the agreement was not designed to promote prosperity. The status of the recognition of Kosovo as an independent state remains unchanged. The primary goal in the Balkans has been to maintain peace rather than seek strategic and lasting solutions that promote the rule of law, cultivate a democratic culture, and promote economic prosperity.
On the one hand, Western powers affirm their determination to integrate the Western Balkans into the EU. On the other hand, regional politicians share similar sentiments. However, neither side has taken concrete steps or assumed responsibility to fulfill their respective obligations. Concrete actions are needed to address outstanding challenges and complete the tasks at hand.
Over time, the region has become a state of “stabilitocracy” rather than democracy. As long as peace is maintained, the EU and the US have tolerated, intentionally or not, various politicians and their regimes, as the Clingendael Institute points out in its research report. Stabilitocracy is a regime with significant shortcomings in democratic governance, but it enjoys external legitimacy (from the EU and the US) due to its perceived stability. This model allows the same corrupt political elites to retain power while the EU and US offer silent or unwitting support. Many regional politicians have learned to speak the “EU language”, but very few have taken concrete steps to implement real reforms. This model of governance has become deeply embedded in the political culture of the contemporary Western Balkans, fostering corruption, lack of transparency and limited rule of law, which undermine public trust and hinder economic development. To promote stability, attract investment and ensure the region’s resilience, it is crucial to strengthen institutions, improve accountability and combat corruption.
To break this vicious circle, countries in the Western Balkans should stop pursuing European integration as a pipe dream and instead focus on initiatives that promote internal and regional development. This task requires promoting the values of States and upholding the principles that contribute to building a prosperous future. At the same time, the global West must resume its leadership role and define a new vision, not only for the Balkans but also in the interest of global peace and development.