BRUSSELS – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the prospects of accession for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have put enlargement back on the European agenda. If, by 2034, the EU enlarged to include a few small new members while reaching gradual integration agreements with Ukraine, it would have accomplished a stunning strategic feat, writes Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, in an editorial. published by Policy.
According to Tocci, resistance to EU enlargement to the Western Balkans and Turkey has increased due to economic costs and the absence of compelling security reasons.
However, in light of the Russian threat, there is now an existential security reason behind EU enlargement, she writes. This raises the question of which countries should be prioritized.
“As long as war rages and reconstruction remains an EU priority, Ukraine’s membership will remain a political priority. This raises the question of decoupling from the Balkan trio, where the security imperative for enlargement is weaker, reforms are slow and conflict resolution slow. Yet bloc members with a stake in the region will oppose it – and they will get what they want,” Tocci writes.
However, she adds, this does not mean that the EU will experience a radical new enlargement, from its current 27 members to 35 or 36 member countries over the next decade. In fact, provided that reforms accelerate and are sustained, the accession of small countries like Moldova in the east and Montenegro in the Balkans could take place well before a decade, ending the paralysis of the enlargement of the EU, underlines Tocci.
On the other hand, Ukraine is the largest and most complex country to include, meaning it is difficult to imagine how it could enter the EU in less than a decade.
“This is where progressive integration ideas come in – both traditional regarding entry into the single market and better access to EU funds, but also more innovative, such as the inclusion of applicants for European Green Deal, the digital market, industrial policy. , and foreign and security policy,” writes Tocci.
She stresses that enlarging to a few small new members, concluding agreements on gradual integration with Ukraine and even the United Kingdom and resolving representation and funding problems after enlargement would constitute an “achievement breathtaking strategic plan” if it were achieved in the coming months. decade.
According to Tocci, when Jean-Claude Juncker was appointed president of the European Commission in 2014, he caused an unnecessary stir by declaring what everyone already knew: that enlargement would not take place during his term.
“The next President of the Commission, who takes office in 2024, should reverse the Juncker declaration and create a positive stir by committing to what no one has yet had the courage to say: that enlargement will take place under its direction,” she concludes. .