ANKARA: The latest Turkish report from the European Parliament, with its critical tone, has infuriated several decision-makers in Ankara.
But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest statement marks the first official setback for the country’s strategic bid for EU membership at a critical time as Turkey grapples with significant economic challenges and seeks to strengthen relations trade with EU Member States.
Before leaving for New York on Saturday to attend the 78th United Nations General Assembly in New York, Erdogan told reporters that Turkey could unilaterally secede from the EU if necessary, implying that the country is considering ending to its application for membership.
“The EU is working to sever ties with Turkey,” he said.
“We will assess the situation and, if necessary, we will separate from the EU.”
The European Parliament report, which sparked Erdogan’s reaction, leaves no room for ambiguity.
He stressed that any resumption of accession negotiations between the EU and Turkey depended on Turkey implementing crucial democratization reforms.
Furthermore, the report recommends that the EU explore “a parallel and realistic framework” for its relations with Turkey, hinting at a recalibration of their engagement.
Turkey has officially been a candidate for EU membership since 1999, but accession negotiations have stalled, particularly over the past five years, due to the bloc’s concerns about democratic backsliding.
However, at the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12, Erdogan made clear that his approval of Sweden’s NATO membership would depend on the resumption of Turkey’s EU membership negotiations. .
Erdogan also confirmed that full membership remained a key strategic objective for Turkey and called for the reopening of accession negotiations.
“Even though what Erdogan expects from the EU is not always clear and consistent, it seems that he wants a relationship without conditionality,” said Nilgun Arisan-Eralp, director of the Center for Union Studies of the Ankara-based think tank TEPAV. Arab News.
“I think he sees Turkey (as) so powerful – with its alleged geopolitical weight – that no country or intergovernmental or supranational institution can tell it what to do,” she said.
“He claims not to know the conditions of membership, in particular those relating to democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights. Such a relationship can be established between the EU and a third country which could be important for a specific cause – such as Tunisia in the case of refugees – but not with a country which can be considered as a candidate,” she said. added.
Turkey was not invited to recent EU enlargement meetings, first in the Greek capital Athens on August 21, despite the presence of other candidate countries, and then to the meeting of business ministers foreigners from Gymnich on August 31 in Toledo, another Spanish city. development that irritated policymakers in Ankara and triggered a feeling of exclusion.
“The EU could have invited Turkey to enlargement meetings to discuss progress or lack of progress with other candidate countries in a multilateral framework,” Arisan-Eralp said.
“A dialogue could have been initiated with Turkey in the areas of foreign policy and security within the framework of different platforms such as the Gymnich meetings,” she said.
The question of what a comprehensive but realistic positive agenda between the EU and Turkey would look like is now a matter of debate.
“Given the current circumstances, this would build on mutually beneficial areas of cooperation,” Arisan-Eralp said.
“This could include modernization of the customs union, cooperation on a green and digital transition, facilitation of visa procedures and a dialogue on foreign policy,” she said.
The growing trend of rejection of European visa applications from Turkish citizens in recent years has recently prompted the Turkish government to negotiate with the EU to facilitate visa procedures.
Following the recent visit of Oliver Varhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, to Ankara on September 5, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the two sides agreed to work on visa facilitation for Turkish businessmen and students.
The technical teams should also soon start working on the modernization of the customs union, the update of which is late because it is limited to industrial products and processed agricultural products.
Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and president of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy, believes that after the elections, Erdogan adopted positive rhetoric towards the EU and expressed his desire to revitalize these relationships.
“But the downside is that until now it has remained at the level of rhetoric,” he told Arab News.
“What is really needed is for the Turkish government to create domestic momentum for political reforms and improvements to the rule of law, including by addressing the ongoing procedure within the Council of Europe concerning non-compliance with judgments. of (the) European Court of Human Rights,” he said.
However, the situation is far from one-sided. On the EU side too, says Ulgen, there are a number of shortcomings.
Currently, the EU appears paralyzed, unable to exploit other means of interaction with Ankara beyond the long-stalled accession process.
The EU should find ways to engage with Turkey, Ulgen said.
“Now they are failing to do so, which shows a certain strategic blindness on the part of the EU, because there are different channels of engagement with Turkey, beyond blocked membership, such as visa liberalization, modernization of the customs union, cooperation in renewable energies, green transition.
“But so far the EU has been unable to at least try to unblock any of these engagement channels,” he said.
“Even a small gesture like inviting (the) Turkish minister to (the) Gymnich-type meeting of foreign ministers did not take place,” he added.
In the near future, Ulgen believes the accession process will remain stuck in the absence of a strong democratic moment in Turkey, which he sees as a wasted opportunity. After the war in Ukraine, the issue of enlargement has once again become a realistic topic for the EU, where there is an ongoing debate on how to open the door to membership for countries like Ukraine and Moldova as well as the Western Balkans.
“Turkiye is completely absent from this discussion. In this context, the EU and Turkey should at least agree in the near future on some elements of a positive agenda, starting with the customs union and the issue of visa facilitation,” he said. he declared, implying the urgent need to pave the way for constructive engagement in the near future.
Turkey is the EU’s seventh largest trading partner, while the EU remains Turkey’s largest merchandise import and export partner.
Bilateral trade volume reached a record $200 billion last year. Technical work to improve trade relations between Turkey and the EU will begin at the Trade Working Group meetings in October.