The leaders of around fifty European countries will participate on Thursday October 5 in the third summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in Granada, in the south of Spain.
This informal political forum, a pet project of French President Emmanuel Macron, follows two previous meetings in the Czech Republic last October and then in Moldova in June, considered by officials to be a success.
Discussions are expected to focus on energy, infrastructure, connectivity, cybersecurity, migration as well as ongoing tensions on the continent.
After the informal political forum, EU-27 leaders will remain in Spain on Friday to discuss key priorities for the coming year and prepare for their next regular European Council summit in October, scheduled in two weeks.
Leaders are also expected to consider the future of the EU in the context of enlargement – but some fear migration could hijack the entire summit.
In a draft declaration seen by EUobserver, EU leaders are expected to agree on the need to boost defense investment, strengthen industrial competitiveness, improve migration management and engage in discussions on enlargement.
Here are the main issues to watch for Granada:
Who is coming?
The European Policy Community will begin with a plenary session in which leaders will be divided into four working groups to discuss AI, energy and collaboration on the global stage. This general debate will be followed by bilateral meetings.
The list of participants includes the EU-27, the heads of major European institutions and the leaders of third countries such as Switzerland, Albania, Andorra and Iceland.
As Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders were expected to engage in peace talks in Spain following Baku’s recent attacks on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said he would not attend the Granada meeting .
Media reports that Aliyev asked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to be represented at the five-party meeting scheduled to take place on Thursday between Armenia, Azerbaijan, France, Germany and European Council President Charles Michael.
However, Paris and Berlin reportedly declined his request.
Furthermore, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna announced on Wednesday that Paris would send military aid to Armenia so “that it can ensure its defense”, which could influence Aliyev’s decision.
Erdoğan, for his part, is also not expected to attend the Granada meeting.
And the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky will not be present in person for security reasons.
Kosovo, which is not recognized by Spain and four other EU member states, will be represented at the meeting.
Officials expect there to be “diplomatic opportunities” in Granda to talk with Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic the latest developments In the region.
The next summit of the European Political Community is expected to take place in the United Kingdom, the only member state to ever leave the EU.
EU enlargement: money and reforms
Against a backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions, the two meetings will also discuss the future of Europe.
While Thursday’s discussion will focus on common challenges, EU leaders are expected to agree on Friday that the EU “must undertake the necessary internal groundwork” to expand to include up to 35 member states.
“Our discussions will mark the start of an important process of reflection on the EU’s future priorities, allowing us to collectively chart the way forward for the Union, defining its future direction and objectives,” Michel said.
The discussion will help set the stage for the EU-27 summit in December, where leaders are expected to open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, assess progress made by the Western Balkans and continue discussions on internal reforms candidate countries.
Friday’s discussion will be a brainstorming session of sorts since concrete reforms will only come up for discussion at a later stage, after December discussions on the issue, officials said.
The European Commission is expected to present its annual report at the end of October on the progress of countries in the process of joining the bloc.
The EU also announced that it would present concrete measures to accelerate integration.
This follows a proposal from French-German experts on internal reforms needed to prepare for EU enlargement to more than 30 member states – and Michel proposed 2030 as a tentative deadline for such an enlargement.
Although it could take more than a decade before enlargement actually occurs, the challenges posed by Russia and China have reignited the debate on the EU’s absorption capacity.
EU leaders will face difficult discussions over the impact of enlargement on the next EU budget, which runs from 2028 to 2035.
Enlargement will have significant implications in key areas such as regional cohesion policy and the common agricultural policy (CAP), but the integration challenges posed by a large, poor country like Ukraine are also part of the puzzle.
Integrating nine countries into the EU would cost current member states around 256 billion euros, according to internal calculations leaked to the Financial Times.
“It would be right for Ukraine to accept as a corollary that it will not be fully integrated into the CAP or cohesion policy for some time,” according to Stefan Lehne, a researcher at the Carnegie Europe think tank.
Lehne argues that Moldova and Georgia lie between the Western Balkans and Ukraine because they are smaller countries that would be easier to integrate than Ukraine.
Migration: final sprint
Migration is also expected to feature high on the agenda of the informal meeting of EU heads of state and government.
EU leaders are expected to agree on “increased external action” and “more effective control of the EU’s external borders” to control flows of illegal migrants, while committing to protecting fundamental rights.
Friday’s discussion will come after weeks of intense EU inter-institutional debates on a package of legislative reforms on migration policies.
EU ambassadors reached a preliminary agreement on Wednesday on EU rules for the reception and relocation of migrants arriving in crisis – despite previous opposition from Germany and Italy.
Wednesday agreement is now expected to pave the way for the deal to be concluded before the next elections in June 2024.
Meanwhile, the controversial EU-Tunisia deal is also expected to be on the menu, especially after Tunisian autocratic President Kais Saied rejected the European Commission’s first package of 127 million euros.
EU officials say Saied’s actions are intended to send a message to the EU that the first tranche is not enough.
Ukraine: fragile financial aid
At the same time, the EU should use the two Granda meetings to reaffirm its commitment to supporting Ukraine – following a unprecedented meeting of EU foreign ministers in kyiv earlier this week.
As the US cuts additional financial aid to Ukraine from its spending bill and internal EU budget disputes mount, concerns grow over the potential impact of the counter-offensive of Kiev against Russian forces.
Hungary continues to withhold the next €500 million tranche of EU financial aid under the European Peace Facility (EPF).
And the European Commission is expected to release around 13 billion euros of funds to the Hungarian government in a bid to secure a unanimous vote on the EU’s long-term budget, which includes 50 billion euros of funding for Ukraine.
After the Kiev meeting on Monday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he would offer EU military aid to Ukraine of 5 billion euros to cover 2024 needs – as part of his €20 billion proposal for the next four years to support Ukraine’s defense forces.
This comes as anti-liberal pro-Russian Robert Fico returned to power in Slovakia, reiterating his promise not to send any more Slovak military aid to Ukraine.
Last month, Poland also echoed the same message, announcing that it would end future arms transfers to Ukraine.
