- As the conflict rages between Israel and Hamas, between Russia and Ukraine, political analysts say the attention of Western powers has been diverted from another “festering” geopolitical problem: tensions between Serbia and Kosovo.
- Leon Hartwell, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told CNBC that when a new conflict erupts on the world stage, “it naturally strains a nation’s ability to effectively manage pre-existing conflicts.
- “Consequently, the discord between Serbia and Kosovo, although deepening, finds itself languishing in the shadow of these more immediate and globally resonant challenges,” he added.
Soldiers of the NATO-led international peacekeeping force, the Kosovo Force (KFOR), march in the northern part of the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica, September 28, 2023.
Stringer | Afp | Getty Images
Leon Hartwell, non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said escalation of tensions between Serbia and Kosovo required increased vigilance, even if a recent outbreak of violence had largely “escaped the radar of Western media”.
“The relentless demands on our collective attention, including the war between Russia and Ukraine, and now the resurgence of tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian theater, have taken up the lion’s share of our diplomatic and military bandwidth,” Hartwell told CNBC via email.
“Consequently, the discord between Serbia and Kosovo, although festering, finds itself languishing in the shadow of these more immediate and globally resonant challenges.”
It highlights a major challenge for policymakers: paying near-constant attention to ongoing conflicts, while continuing to monitor other strategically important risks.
Hartwell said that when a new conflict erupts on the world stage, “it naturally strains a nation’s ability to effectively manage pre-existing conflicts.” Essentially, diplomatic and military room for maneuver has its limits, and states are forced to make calculated choices about where their efforts go.
The Western Balkans, a group of six countries that European Union officials have repeatedly declared to be part of the European family, include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.
Not yet a member of the 27-nation bloc, the Southern and Eastern European region, with a population of around 18 million, is known as a region arena of geostrategic rivalrywith Moscow, Brussels and Washington among those vying for influence.
As tensions between Serbia and Kosovo have continued to rise in recent years, a deadly shootout in late September between a heavily armed group of ethnic Serbs and Kosovo’s special police forces in the northern village of Banjska of Kosovo, seems to mark another decisive turning point.
The move sparked concern among U.S. and European officials who expressed deep concern about the violence and the “unprecedented” buildup of military forces in that country, as described by the White House.
“The fact remains that the Balkans region is a powder keg, where even minor incidents can quickly escalate into larger conflicts. History has highlighted the adage that what happens in the Balkans doesn’t stay in the Balkans,” said CEPA’s Hartwell.
“The United States, European Union and United Kingdom do not have the diplomatic and military flexibility to respond to several conflicts of strategic interest. Choices will have to be made about where we can “commit our resources, which will ultimately have negative consequences for some regions,” he added.
The Kosovo Assembly votes to condemn the September 24 attack by a Serbian armed group against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state in the north of the country, during which a police officer was killed in Pristina , in Kosovo, September 28, 2023.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Hartwell’s comments describing the situation in the region as a powder keg echo a warning issued by policymakers at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) last month.
“Resolving the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia is no longer just a political issue, but a serious security issue for the region and for Europe,” Engjellushe Morina and Majda Ruge of ECFR. said in a political alert.
“For the United States and the EU, the choice is no longer just between failure and success of dialogue, but between stability and a further escalation of violence. The latter solution is very likely unless They finally recognize Belgrade’s role in the destabilization of Kosovo and adopt a firm approach to counter it.”
NATO has led a peacekeeping mission in Kosovo since 1999, following a bloody conflict between ethnic Albanians opposed to ethnic Serbs and the government of Yugoslavia in 1998. The military alliance responded to the September incident by deploying additional peacekeeping troops to the region, while Serbia strengthened its presence. military presence along its border with Kosovo.
Kosovo declared itself independent from Serbia in 2008, a proclamation that Serbia rejected, and tensions have been simmering since then, not helped by the election of nationalist leaders in both countries.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić previously said in a interview with the Financial Times that Serbian forces did not intend to go to war against Kosovo, stressing that this would go against the country’s ambitions to join the EU.
“The reality is that the Balkans, although relatively modest in size, warrant strategic engagement. When the US, EU and UK work together, they have demonstrated the ability to make a huge difference in the Balkans” , said Hartwell of CEPA.
“However, when we neglect this responsibility, or mismanage it as is currently the case, we inadvertently create an opening for other actors to fill the void.”
— CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.
