Biden’s reengagement with Europe can start with an easy diplomatic victory in the Balkans that would secure the region.
As United States President Joe Biden spent his first 100 days in office, it appeared that his administration had pushed foreign policy to the back of his agenda to focus on domestic issues. But perhaps the expected decline of the pandemic in the coming months thanks to the success of his vaccination campaign could allow the president to pay more attention to foreign policy as well.
While Biden appears to have focused on striking a new deal with Iran and ending America’s “forever war” in Afghanistan, the Balkans are one region where he can achieve an easy victory by foreign politic. Unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, it is in this part of Europe that the American military intervention in the 1990s is considered a success.
Thirty years ago, the Balkans caught the attention of Senator Biden. He strongly criticized Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s wars of conquest and actively supported American military action in Bosnia and Kosovo. It is for this reason that Biden’s election last November was widely celebrated in both countries and raised high hopes for further positive US involvement in the region.
While other states of the former Yugoslavia have made progress in their integration into the European Union and NATO, Bosnia and Kosovo are lagging behind. Croatia is a member of both. North Macedonia recently joined NATO and membership negotiations with the EU are expected to begin soon. Montenegro also became a member of NATO and is currently in accession talks with the EU. Serbia is adamant that it would remain outside NATO, but it is moving forward in accession negotiations with the EU.
This dynamic effectively leaves Bosnia without a clear path to the EU or NATO in the near future. The prospect of Kosovo joining either is currently even more remote. Left in limbo, there are fears that Bosnia will slide into a dysfunctional state marred by ethnic tensions and that Kosovo’s development will stagnate without a clear roadmap to EU and NATO membership.
This is largely because, for more than a decade, the region has been largely neglected by successive US administrations. Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, pursued an inconsistent foreign policy that produced no tangible results. A White House summit last September with Serbian and Kosovar leaders failed to address the most pressing issue for both countries: recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
Biden can correct the consequences of his predecessors’ neglect and inadequate policies by taking decisive action in Kosovo and Bosnia, where the United States enjoys a largely positive perception.
He should follow two political paths. First, Biden can push to finalize the NATO enlargement process in Southeast Europe. Kosovo is eager to join the Alliance while Bosnia has made some progress, despite internal political obstacles. The majority of one of its entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, supports NATO membership, while most of the political leaders of the other entity – Republika Srpska – actively oppose it .
But this has not always been the case. Just over a decade ago, Nebojša Radmanović, then a Serb member of the Bosnian presidency, sent a letter to NATO expressing Bosnia’s commitment to becoming a full member of the Alliance. What has changed since 2009 is that Bosnian Serb leaders – in the void left by the US diplomatic withdrawal – have adopted an officially more anti-NATO and pro-Russian stance. Despite public opposition to Bosnia’s NATO membership, Bosnian Serb nationalist leader Milorad Dodik has given the green light to the country’s increasing cooperation with the Alliance, including participating in the exercise US-led Defender Europe 2021.
In fact, Bosnia’s decision to commit to NATO membership is part of an official policy that enjoys the support of Bosnian Serb leaders. The country’s recent foreign policy strategy for 2018-2023 reaffirmed that “the pursuit of NATO-related policies remains a priority for Bosnia’s institutions.”
The Biden administration should push to accelerate Bosnia and Kosovo’s membership in NATO. This would give both countries a sense of a better future and help anchor them firmly within the Atlantic Alliance. American political, military, and economic investment in Bosnia and Kosovo over the past two decades would be assured.
Faced with the dysfunctional response of Bosnian institutions to the pandemic, entrenched ethnic leaders have turned to a warmongering that serves to distract public attention from endemic corruption and gross incompetence and dangerously incites violence. The hope that existed more than a decade ago that EU and NATO membership could ease some of the tensions arising from the Dayton peace accords has given way to a general sense of despair. Accelerating Bosnia’s NATO membership now could prevent the country from becoming another frozen European conflict.
Advancing Kosovo’s NATO candidacy would likely jump-start reform and development in Europe’s newest state, which has long struggled with socio-economic stagnation. It would also ease fears of a resurgence of conflict with Serbia and an escalation of tensions in ethnically mixed northern regions. By pushing for Kosovo’s integration into NATO, the Biden administration would send a clear signal to Belgrade that Kosovo will move forward regardless of the pace of full normalization. It could also help put pressure on Serbia to fully recognize its neighbor and normalize relations.
Second, the United States should push the EU to offer a clear perspective of membership for Bosnia and Kosovo. Bosnia is further along in the EU accession process and granting it candidate status for membership would be crucial to extricate the country from its current dysfunction. This would give Bosnia valuable momentum to undertake political and economic reforms that Bosnian politicians would not do and, more importantly, it would have access to more EU funds to invest in much-needed projects in education, health and infrastructure.
Progress towards EU membership is also very important for Kosovo. Serbia is far ahead of its neighbor in the negotiation process and if it joins soon it could block Kosovo’s bid for membership. The US desire to intensify EU incentives for Kosovo in the form of candidate status would help equalize the current situation and guarantee its membership. A candidate status for Kosovo would also provide EU funds for reforms and infrastructure, but would also serve to pressure politicians to take more serious steps in the fight against corruption and economic underdevelopment.
In summary, the Biden administration is in a unique position to firmly anchor the Balkans within the Atlantic Alliance and secure peace in this volatile part of Europe. Both states are sparsely populated and their integration into NATO would be profitable. Biden can also help accelerate their integration into the EU, which would contribute to the political and economic development of these countries.
The opportunity for a political push in this direction will present itself on June 14 at the NATO summit in Brussels. Such foreign policy success for the 46th US president is within reach, achievable in his first term, and would constitute a lasting legacy.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.