The “one size fits all” approach no longer works in the Western Balkans. The region is often seen as a homogeneous microcosm of countries expressing the same grievances for years, rather incapable of producing fundamental changes and stuck in purgatory. Using the catch-all term “Western Balkans” is becoming increasingly difficult when talking about democratic trends in the region, as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia each find themselves in a unique situation. These nations gradually took different trajectories. Recognizing these differences is essential to successful democratization, which is important not only for the prosperity of countries, but also for protection against Russian influence and authoritarianism. Recognizing this little-known diversity could help the international community not only address security issues in the region, but also reassess the level of assistance and attention each country needs.
First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the differences that exist in the region. Serbia, unlike much of Europe, is one of the only allieswith high levels of support for President Vladimir Putin displayed by both THE leaders and the publicinfluenced by years of propaganda And state-captured media. This is despite the fact that the European Union is the largest country in Serbia. giver in favor of reforms and despite other leaders’ calls on Serbia to align itself with EU foreign policy. As part of the tripartite presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, supported illegal Russian referendums in occupied Ukraine and suggested the same could be applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result secession plans. Meanwhile, in Albania, a bow country supporting Ukraine, Prime Minister Edi Rama was critical that his close ties with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić are considered benefit Serbia’s hegemonic tendencies. Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro have essentially aligned themselves with Western democracies. International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy (GSoD) data also confirms the unique trajectories of these countries.
Figure 1. Democratic performance over time in Western Balkan countries
Even though no country in the region shows high democratic performance in any of the five GSoD attributesAlbania, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro showed significant progress in some areas over a ten-year period, in contrast to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, which showed no significant improvement. Kosovo has the highest share of significant increases (for three indicators), while Serbia has experienced the highest share of declines (for all indicators).
GSOD data notably reveals the region’s common struggle against corruption, the only attribute of an underperforming democracy.
Figure 2. Performance of Western Balkan countries in impartial administration
Figure 3. Impartial administration attribute of the global state of democracy
The 2022 Balkan public barometer Poll results show that the economy, unemployment and corruption are citizens’ main concerns. Despite clear evidence that citizens want to take action against corruption, the region’s leaders continue to exploit narratives of ethnic conflict and populism. It’s a sign of something broken. social contract, reflecting the growing gap between political elites and citizens and the lack of political representation and responsiveness. To demonstrate better democratic performance, countries must take steps to challenge the status quo and reduce disparities between social expectations and government priorities.
People across the region, particularly those in countries with better democratic records, have made it clear they want radical change. And changes began to happen. North Macedonia, for example, had its Colored revolution combat state capture. It also improved the rights of minorities following the Ohrid Agreement and even committed to the unpopular concessions such as changing its name to resolve differences with Greece and pave the way for EU accession negotiations. Kosovo has brought radical changes to the political scene, moving to a Young generation of leaders who triggered reforms in all political parties. Montenegro challenged Russia to join NATO in 2017, regardless of its close economic ties. Its pro-Western forces are still fighting against the Serbo-Russians influence in the country. Although it is difficult to predict the sustainability of these efforts, it is indisputable that combating stagnation requires a new social contract.
One could argue that it took today’s developed democracies hundreds of years to get to where they are and continue to fight corruption. Skeptics might also doubt that Balkan citizens are not ready for a new future, as they are still haunted by unresolved ethnic conflicts. However, the big giver support, which was proposed following the post-war transition, offers these countries the opportunity to progress at a much faster pace. If nothing else, public opiniona high number of migrations and brain drain reflect people’s desperate desire for change. Without urgent action for a renewed social contract, the region risks further stagnation and a widening gap in democratic performance between countries.