1. Who wants to join the EU?
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. They are a group stretching eastward from Croatia, the EU’s latest addition in 2013, to Greece and Bulgaria, its poorest country. The region still suffers from the aftereffects of Yugoslavia’s bloody breakup: lingering ethnic enmities, economic dysfunction and world powers jostling for political influence.
The bloc expanded into former communist Europe in 2004, and that process won’t really be complete without the collection of nations at the bottom of the continent. Geography, history and strong economic ties (the EU is by far the region’s largest investor and trading partner) support the argument for expansion, which could help stabilize politics in these countries and would increase one of the world’s largest trading blocs by 18 million people. . Allowing them to join would also improve living standards in countries which have seen millions of citizens migrate to wealthier EU states in search of a better life.
3. How soon will they be able to join?
There is no target date. They must first meet the bloc’s standards for democratic accountability, governance and economic resilience, and resolve thorny territorial conflicts. It typically took a decade for other ex-communist states to prepare. Albania and North Macedonia began accession negotiations in July, joining Serbia and Montenegro. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo have not yet become official candidates.
4. What are the biggest obstacles?
Serbia is in a standoff with its former province of Kosovo, which declared independence unilaterally in 2008. Years of EU mediation between the wartime enemies have produced little progress. One solution could prompt five EU countries that do not recognize Kosovo to join the bloc’s majority that accepts it as a sovereign state. The most dysfunctional country is Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its three main ethnic groups share power, with the Serbian bloc sometimes threatening to secede.
5. What is the geopolitical context?
Russia, China and Turkey are strengthening their involvement in the region. Serbia maintains its military neutrality while maintaining close relations with its traditional ally Russia, which, alongside China, has challenged Kosovo’s sovereignty and blocked it from joining the United Nations. China has stepped up its investment in the Western Balkans and its financing of local infrastructure projects. Three of the countries aspiring to become members of the EU – Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia – are members of the Western military alliance NATO.
The war in Ukraine has given some momentum to the EU’s enlargement drive as the bloc’s leaders seek ways to protect its southeastern flank from an increasingly assertive Russia. But there has been little concrete action. The United Kingdom’s tortuous departure from the EU and the decline of democracy in Hungary and Poland have made some members reluctant to welcome new entrants. Bulgaria blocks North Macedonia over questions of language and common history.
7. What work must be carried out?
The six candidates must strengthen their economies and bring rules on taxation, environmental protection, intellectual property, food safety and energy up to EU standards. Their combined GDP is around $127 billion, less than half that of Romania. They suffer from weak rule of law, human rights, transparency and accountability. Corruption and organized crime are endemic. As the EU invests in local infrastructure, entrenched interests in sectors from energy to construction are holding back competition. Governments have spent decades propping up businesses they own or control, creating monopolies in the process. On the other hand, the six countries have an abundance of skilled, inexpensive labor that has helped attract foreign investment to the region.
8. How enthusiastic are the candidates?
EU membership is a priority for all governments in the region, although popular support for the idea has waned over the years of waiting. Kosovars, Albanians and Montenegrins tend to be the most enthusiastic.
–With help from Jasmina Kuzmanovic.
More stories like this can be found at bloomberg.com