Judging by the headlines, things are getting quite tricky in the Western Balkans. Newspapers published articles arguing that the borders should be redrawn. The Russian Foreign Ministry has accused Western officials of promoting a Greater Albania. Montenegro says Russia was behind an alleged coup attempt last November aimed at blocking its NATO membership. Serbia criticized Kosovo’s president for suggesting his demilitarized country could form an army, and Macedonia lashed out at Kosovo and Albania for their alleged interference in its internal affairs.
Most of these confrontations are empty posturing by leaders facing elections or other national challenges. But they had a real consequence: Western governments became alarmed enough to start paying attention again. Johannes Hahn, the European commissioner for enlargement, says European governments have pushed him for ideas on how to keep the region stable. The result is a blueprint for a Western Balkans common market, supported by both local leaders and the EU itself.
On March 16, at a summit in Sarajevo with the prime ministers of the six Balkan countries wishing to join the EU, Mr Hahn asked them to seize the opportunity. When they meet in Trieste on July 12, he wants them to join a regional common market project, with free trade, free movement of labor and capital and regulatory standardization.
Serbia and Albania are fully supportive; in fact, their leaders say it was their idea. “Serbia would like to play the role that Germany plays in the EU within this group,” says one diplomat. Montenegro and Kosovo are, however, alarmed. Montenegro is well on its way to joining the EU and fears the new plan will only delay it.
Mr. Hahn says the plan could create up to 80,000 jobs. Foreign investors will see a market of 20 million people rather than six small countries. In fact, much of what Mr. Hahn wants to do is already underway. There is an incomplete free trade area, although intra-Balkan trade remains low. There is a Western Balkans Energy Community linked to the EU and a treaty integrating transport policy is ready to be signed. Work has been carried out on the mutual recognition of professional qualifications. The idea now is to bring all these initiatives together and fill the gaps.
EU governments are busy debating what kind of union they want after Brexit. Goran Svilanovic, president of the Sarajevo-based Regional Cooperation Council to which the six Balkan EU candidates belong, says they also need to plan. EU members reaffirmed on March 9 that they expect Balkan states to eventually join the Union, but Mr Svilanovic believes this could happen under different conditions, with new entrants not having only partial access at the beginning and gradually acquiring full membership status.
In Sarajevo, Edi Rama, the Albanian Prime Minister, said he wanted Albanians to now be able to work freely in the EU, while his government worked on the rest of the membership criteria. In the current political climate, this remains a pipe dream. But Mr Rama may be right to say that the Western Balkan countries could join the EU little by little, to avoid provoking resistance. In the meantime, a common market of their own could serve as a consolation prize.